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      XAUUSD: Further Gains Are Probable, but Limited Increases Return the Focus to Reality

      CommodityBanking Crisis in Europe and AmericaInflation and RecessionCentral Bank Policy TrendsThe Fed
      Summary:

      Gold prices gathered bullish momentum and returned above US$1,900 during the European session on Wednesday. Although the USD also rallied to the same height, gold prices were boosted by a sharp drop in the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Securities.

      Sell XAUUSD
      End Time
      CLOSED

      1930.00

      ENTRY PRICE

      1874.00

      TGT PRICE

      1950.00

      SL PRICE

      1961.41 +5.17 +0.26%

      798

      Points

      Profit

      1874.00

      TGT PRICE

      1922.02

      CLOSING

      1930.00

      ENTRY PRICE

      1950.00

      SL PRICE

      Fundamentals

      On Wednesday, gold prices were under some selling pressure for the second consecutive trading day in Asia, and extended the overnight pullback from the 1,910-1,905 level. The intraday decline began to accelerate during the European session, gaining support after pushing the price of gold to a two-day low near US$1,885 in the last hour and rebounding sharply to the previous high consolidation range.
      Despite concerns that the U.S. banking crisis is still spreading, investors seem to believe the Fed may still raise interest rates by a smaller 25 basis points at its upcoming policy meeting on March 21-22.
      The February consumer price index report released on Tuesday lifted that bet, showing that inflation has not fallen as rapidly as hoped. In turn, this is seen as a key factor affecting the price of gold.
      Investors will pay close attention to another set of U.S. inflation reports released before the New York session (U.S. February PPI annual rate), as the U.S. banking crisis has triggered worries about a recession in the market. Inflation data could determine how much the Fed will raise interest rates at next week's policy meeting. On an annual basis, the annual U.S. PPI rate in February is expected to slow to 5.40% from 6.00% in January.
      If inflation shows signs of further cooling, this will help stocks, commodities, and encrypted currencies regain their upward momentum and the market should respond positively. Another rise in inflation data could cement the Fed's expectation of a 25 basis point rate rise at its next meeting.
      XAUUSD: Further Gains Are Probable, but Limited Increases Return the Focus to Reality_1

      Technical Data

      Gold was boosted by a sharp drop in the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Securities. In the 1H timeframe, strong bullish support pushed prices from the bottom of US$1,804 to a supply zone near US$1,915 at the start of the February sell-off. On Thursday, bulls are expected to push prices further above Europe's US$1,920-1,925 level as the RSI in the 4H timeframe moves out of the overbought zone and a sharp drop in the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury Securities boost gold prices.
      On the downside, any meaningful pullback could find some support near the US$1,895 range, which could widen further to the US$1,880-1,874 range. Looking down, US$1,845 near the SMA is the starting point of the early bullish breakthrough and also an important support.
      Overall, a further bull rally will be a highly probable event. However, given the limited room for the rally and the close proximity of the early pivot points, it is not recommended to buy in during the upward movement, but to go short at the highs.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Short
      Entry price: 1930
      Target price: 1874
      Stop loss: 1950
      Deadline: 2022-03-29 23:55:00
      Support: 1914, 1895, 1885
      Resistance: 1920, 1928, 1949
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Eva Chen

      Analyst

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

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      Focus on

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