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Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The war between Russia and Ukraine continues, and it is difficult for the two sides to reach an agreement in negotiations. Western countries have imposed several rounds of sanctions on Russia. The outlook is unpredictable.

Situation in Taiwan Strait

Pelosi's visit to Taiwan has led to an escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said that the U.S. side and the "Taiwan independence" separatist forces colluded to provoke China, which is the fundamental reason for the tensions in the Taiwan Strait.

The Fed

The Federal Reserve (Fed), or the central bank of the United States, is responsible for regulating the U.S. monetary policy and interest rates. As a provider of liquidity for world trade, the Fed is also known as the world's central bank. Its every move affects the global economy and financial markets.

China-U.S. Relations

Focus on Pelosi's Taiwan Visit ! How will China-U.S. relations develop in the future, win-win cooperation or confrontation?

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      WTI: Will There Be An "Oversold Bounce" After A Big Drop?

      Inflation and Recession
      Summary:

      Oil prices recorded their longest one-week decline of the year last week, falling more than 5% overall for the fourth straight week, and closed below $79 per barrel on Friday for the first time since January, as global central banks let loose to step up their fight against inflation at the expense of economic growth.

      Buy WTI
      End Time
      CLOSED

      79.729

      ENTRY PRICE

      81.500

      TGT PRICE

      71.600

      SL PRICE

      71.647 -0.197 -0.27%

      1771

      Points

      Profit

      71.600

      SL PRICE

      81.505

      CLOSING

      79.729

      ENTRY PRICE

      81.500

      TGT PRICE

      Fundamentals

      Last week, the WTI crude oil near-month contract fell more than 5% overall. Among other things, market concerns about a slowdown in crude oil demand due to increased inflation-fighting efforts by major global central banks at the expense of economic growth overshadowed the escalation of Russian military action in Ukraine.
      Oil prices briefly spiked earlier last week when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the "partial mobilization" of 300,000 people to Ukraine for Russia's first major military draft since the end of World War II. Putin also hinted at the possibility of using "any means" to defend Russia. The market interpreted this as "an escalation of the war including the use of nuclear weapons".
      However, oil prices fell below the $80 mark before the close late last week due to a stronger USD. Fears of a recession have increased as major central banks around the world raise interest rates again to fight inflation. In the last week, the Fed raised its key interest rate for the third consecutive time by 75 basis points. The following day, the Bank of England raised rates by 50 basis points to 2.25%, the highest rate since the financial crisis began in 2008.
      In terms of the market, crude oil prices were confined to a relatively narrow range lower for most of last week. Fears of a global recession due to both rising borrowing costs and price pressures dampened crude oil price gains.
      At the same time, market fears of a hard landing for the U.S. economy and the global economy are seeping into the financial system. And the use of interest rates as a "hammer to curb rising inflation" has dampened economic activity, which is why there has been a sell-off.
      In addition, fears of an economic slowdown have led to what could be the first quarterly decline in crude oil prices in more than two years. A difficult and potentially volatile quarter awaits with multiple conflicts and uncertainties. While growth risks have been factored in, the market remains concerned about the impact of reduced supply from the EU's embargo on crude oil to Russia one day and the sale of 180 million barrels of crude oil by the U.S. from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
      Nevertheless, inventory data from API and EIA could bring some volatility to crude later this week, as another massive increase could confirm that demand is slowing. On the other hand, a surprising increase in inventories could indicate that rigid demand remains high despite economic uncertainty.
      WTI: Will There Be An "Oversold Bounce" After A Big Drop?_1

      Technical Analysis

      WTI crude oil continues to trend lower on the hourly timeframe. The 100-day SMA is below the 200-day SMA, indicating that the path of least resistance is to the downside, or that the sell-off is more likely to resume than to reverse.
      However, the stochastic oscillator is oversold and looks poised to pull higher to indicate a return of bullish pressure. The RSI is also in the oversold territory to reflect short-side weakness. If this oversold condition persists, it could be enough to push crude oil prices higher to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $82.55, which is close to the trend line and former support area. A small correction could meet resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $81.50 or the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at around $80.50. Either of these resistances could push crude oil prices lower near the swing low of $77 or lower. However, the prices are dominated by an oversold bounce. It is recommended to buy the dips.  

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading Direction: Long
      Entry Price: 78.60
      Target Price: 81.50
      Stop Loss: 76.60
      Valid Until: 2022-10-10 20:00:00
      Support: 77.19
      Resistance: 80.50, 81.50, 82.55
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Eva Chen

      Analyst

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

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      Focus on

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