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WTI: Weakness Hard to Change in Short Term, Short in Short Term & Long in Long Term
Summary:
The crisis has been eased and the oil price has rallied. But it is difficult to change the weakness in the short term, so the strategy is to go short in the short term and go long in the long term.
CLOSED
70.000
ENTRY
65.500
TGT
72.500
SL
71.153 +0.131 +0.18%
558
Points
Profit
65.500
TGT
69.442
CLOSING
70.000
ENTRY
72.500
SL
Fundamentals
Macro side: the European and US banking credit crises ease in the short term; risk aversion improves dramatically, and financial markets rally greatly.
Institutional voices: Goldman Sachs believes that there is a real risk of financial (crisis) contagion, but currently believes that there will be no crisis contagion in the physical commodity market. The banking crisis is likely to have a greater impact on oil supply than demand. The oil market is expected to enter a shortage in June, and we think investors will return to commodities. The oil price will increase by $5-$10/barrel and confidence in the commodity super-cycle will become stronger.
Inventories: According to U.S. API inventory data, crude oil is slightly accumulated and refined products are depleted. U.S. API crude oil inventories increased by 3.262 million barrels in the week of March 16, versus an expected decrease of 1.448 million barrels and a previous increase of 1.155 million barrels. U.S. API Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 760,000 barrels in the week of March 16, compared to a decrease of 946,000 barrels in the previous value. U.S. API gasoline stocks decreased by 1.09 million barrels in the week of March 16, versus a decrease of 4.587 million barrels in the previous value. API distillate stocks dropped by 1.84 million barrels in the week of March 16, compared with an increase of 2.886 million barrels.
Demand: WTI crude futures fell below $70 a barrel last week for the first time since December 2021, which could spur the U.S. government to start replenishing its strategic oil reserves, thereby boosting demand.
Supply: Russian production cuts are extended until the end of June. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia is close to achieving its promised 500,000 bpd production cut target and has decided to keep oil production at a lower level until July this year given the current market situation.
Overall, it is mainly the macro side that is dominating the oil market volatility in the near future. After the previous round of decline, the crude oil price rallies after the macro risk aversion has been repaired in the short term, and it is prone to an over-expected rally in the short term. In terms of fundamentals, high-frequency indicators have been turning weak recently, and crude oil inventories continue to pick up with limited favorable. The market focus should be on the late night tonight and early tomorrow morning Fed meeting, which is currently considered not very likely to produce more than expected favorable news. The current strategy can be going short in the short term and going long in the long term.
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, after nearly 2 weeks of sharp decline, the price has entered a weak consolidation; before breaking through 70 in one move, the price is still weak. Although the MACD forms a death cross and its opening expands and it appears to be weaker in the short term, it is gradually approaching the oversold area and an oscillation retracement of picking up will occur at any time after the dip; the space below will not be too large, and there is a very strong support near 65. In the short term, the pattern of oscillation may be difficult to change, and aggressive traders are recommended to buy low and sell high in the 65-70 range.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Short
Entry price: 70.000
Target price: 65.500
Stop loss: 72.500
Support: 68.500/65.500
Resistance: 70.000/72.500
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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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