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      WTI: USD Will Still Limit WTI Shortly, While WTI Is Reaching the Bottom

      Commodity
      Summary:

      WTI fell for the fourth consecutive day only as market fears of an over-expected tightening in the US rose.

      Buy WTI
      End Time
      CLOSED

      74.500

      ENTRY PRICE

      80.000

      TGT PRICE

      72.000

      SL PRICE

      73.166 +0.279 +0.38%

      2500

      Points

      Loss

      72.000

      SL PRICE

      71.995

      CLOSING

      74.500

      ENTRY PRICE

      80.000

      TGT PRICE

      Fundamentals

      Macroscopically, Fed Chairman Powell reiterated that this year's data aim at higher terminal rates, and the Fed will accelerate the pace of rate hikes if necessary to overcome high inflation in a highly uncertain time frame. For the upcoming March rate resolution, Powell then said he would be guided by data releases, with the Fed focusing on employment vacancies, CPI, PPI, and jobs data. 
      With 10.824 million US JOLTS vacancies openings, the ratio of jobs per unemployed person remained at a high 1.9. It proves that inflationary pressures in the labor market remain evident. Besides, US ADP employment recorded an increase of 242,000 in January, higher than the expected increase of 200,000, with the previous value revised upwards from 106,000 to 119,000. But an unexpected increase in US initial jobless claims last week, released on March 9th, raised hopes that the labor market may be cooling and that the Fed is less likely to accelerate interest rate hikes. Meanwhile, US initial jobless claims for the week to March 4th were recorded at 211,000, above expectations of 195,000 and the previous week's 190,000. 
      Tonight's (March 10th) Nonfarm Payrolls data is the focus of the market, as US Nonfarm Payrolls growth has exceeded market expectations for 10 consecutive months, the longest duration in decades. If this trend continues, it will increase pressure on the Fed to keep raising interest rates and on oil prices. 
      On the demand side: The IEA recently reported that oil consumption in India and other countries in the Asia-Pacific region is increasing as borders reopen, fueling global oil demand to a record 101.9 million bpd this year and potentially plunging the field into a supply shortage in the second half of the year. But on the US side the 2y-10y inversion of US debt is now over 100bp and a recession seems to be looming, limiting demand for crude oil to some extent.
      On the supply side: Russia plans to reduce its oil exports through western ports by as much as 25% in March, more than the previously announced 500,000 bpd cut. 
      Regarding inventory: EIA crude stocks fell while strategic reserves remained unchanged. US EIA crude oil inventories plunged by 1.694 million barrels in the week of March 3rd, compared to the expected 395,000 barrels and a previous value of 1.166 million barrels.
      Generally, over-expected tightening is undoubtedly a major impediment to limit the rise in oil prices, but the macro background is favorable to oil prices. Thus, it is better to wait for the market to further digest the Fed's tightening expectations before looking for an oil prices bottom-out opportunity.

      Technical Analysis

      Referring to the 4H chart, WTI has been running in the channel (showing in the chart below) since last November between 73-82. Currently, WTI reaches the lower area of the channel after 4days of depreciation, testing the support nearby. In addition, MACD indicator has dropped below the 0-axis to the oversold zone, suggesting a powerful rebounding momentum shortly, and it is recommended for aggressive traders to buy at lows in the near term after the oversold.    WTI: USD Will Still Limit WTI Shortly, While WTI Is Reaching the Bottom _1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: 74.500
      Target price: 80.000
      Stop loss: 72.000
      Support: 73.000/72.000
      Resistance: 80.000/82.500
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      King Ten

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      Focus on macroeconomic analysis with extra attention to the geopolitical impact on financial markets.

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