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WTI: Saudi Arabia Shouted Bears, Crude Oil Rose Sharply
Summary:
After the macro sentiment, perhaps oil prices will gradually tilt toward the bulls.
CLOSED
72.500
ENTRY
80.000
TGT
68.500
SL
71.752 +1.542 +2.19%
546
Points
Profit
68.500
SL
73.046
CLOSING
72.500
ENTRY
80.000
TGT
Fundamentals
During the Asian session on Wednesday (May 24), WTI oil prices are oscillating in a narrow range to the upside and are currently trading around 74.3. As Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said on Tuesday that he would make short traders pay and reminded them to be careful, WTI crude rose 2.3% to an intraday high of $73.98 a barrel, which is also a three-week high in May. Besides, WTI oil prices broke through the 73.9 strong resistance high this afternoon to 74.4 and are currently hovering there to test the 73.9 high support.
Data: The preliminary Markit manufacturing PMI in the United States recorded a two-month low of 48.5 in May, compared with 50.2 in the previous month and the market expectaion of 50. However, the preliminary Markit services PMI in the United States recorded 55.1 in May, higher than market expectations of 52.6 and the previous 53.6. In short, the data is mixed, with the US economy still showing strong resilience.
Inventories: API crude oil inventories reported on Tuesday were sharply reduced unexpectedly. In the week ended May 19, crude oil inventories fell by about 6.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories by about 6.4 million, and distillate inventories by about 1.8 million. Analysts had predicted that crude inventories were expected to rise by about 800,000 barrels last week, gasoline inventories by about 1.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories by about 400,000 barrels.
Overall: Oil prices will eventually return to the supply and demand side after the macro disturbance. As it is currently in the peak consumption season of the summer and the global spot market has picked up in the past week. With the improvement of supply and demand, the global supply shortage is expected to gradually strengthen, and oil prices may rise in the future. In addition, OPEC+ may consider further production cuts at the June 4 meeting. Coupled with the sharp reduction in API crude oil and refined product inventories released today, the US Memorial Day holiday will kick off the summer travel season. Market optimism may heat up. In the near future, the oil market should still be mainly based on going long at lows. We will focus on whether the resistance of the 73.9 line can be successfully broken today.
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, although prices are generally running in a descending channel, the MACD has already shown a golden cross signal. Oil prices have held above 70, trading above the 5-, 10- and 20-day EMAs and breaking above the upper edge of the box at 73.9. It suggests that the overall trend is expected to shift upward. Initial resistance above is around 76.5, further resistance is at 80.2, also refer to the 80 integer mark.
While initial support below is around the MA5 at 72.8, with further strong support around the week's low of 70.6. If this support is lost, further strong support is near the 70 integer mark. It is recommended that traders still focus on short-term pullbacks and lows. In the short-term, the upper focus on the resistance level of 76-76.5, and the bottom focus on the support level of 72-72.5.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 72.500
Target Price: 80.000
Stop Loss: 68.500
Support: 72.600/70.000
Resistance: 76.500/80.000
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