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USDX: Trend of the Dollar Has Been Mixed

Summary:

The Fed policies are dynamic, but the market is trading in favor of the tightening cycle coming to a close. Speeches by Powell and several officials this week may revise market expectations. While the big news of the economic data may generate new anticipations as well.

Sell USDX
End Time
CLOSED

106.824

ENTRY PRICE

105.465

TGT PRICE

107.800

SL PRICE

101.908 +0.020 +0.01%

178

Points

Profit

105.465

TGT PRICE

106.646

CLOSING

106.824

ENTRY PRICE

107.800

SL PRICE

Fundamentals

With the arrival of Thanksgiving, the US market closed early on Friday, and the dollar fluctuated generally, closing slightly up 0.41%. Prices maintain the upward trend during the day, currently trading around 106.35, extending Friday's rally. This week is heading into December, and markets will also prepare for the Fed's last rate hike of the year while facing a flood of important economic data releases.
ADP, PCE, and non-farm payrolls will undoubtedly stimulate new prospects in the market. It will be clear after this week whether it is a slowdown in rate hike expectations or a recession in the US economy. The main trading theme for this week remains two: economic data and Fed officials' speeches.
While in terms of official speeches, the words of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Brookings Institution on Wednesday (local time) are the most crucial one, which is always delivered only after every Fed interest rate decision or congressional testimony. However, Powell will definitely say something different in this scheduled Brookings Institution speech, clichés are meaningless after all. At the same time, this speech will not happen if Powell is satisfied with the current "market understanding of Fed policy", in other words, if the market's expectations for the Fed's policy path are within the Fed's expectations. Therefore, Williams and Bullard will play the front before Powell's speech in order to set the stage. The speech of this time is significant because it will be the last speech by Fed officials before the start of the silent period.
The policies of the Fed are dynamic, but the market is trading in favor of the Fed's tightening cycle coming to a close.
It will be able to witness again the frequent shifts in market expectations this week.

Technical Analysis

Trading at the 4-hour chart, the dollar again returned to the oscillation range of 107.291--106.034, and also rose slightly after touching the bottom of the descending channel. Strong support in the short term is 105.465, which is not only close to the new 3-month low, but also around the bottom of the descending channel. The key support is 104.651, which is the Fibonacci Retracements at 61.8%, below which a break is expected to descend towards 103.1. While the short-term strong resistance is at the bottom of the oscillation range, the key resistance is 107.735. The top of the descending channel, the descending trendline, and the MA100 all converge here. Only by breaking this line can the dollar temporarily stop the decline. As for indicators, Stoch has entered the overbought zone and is showing signs of a death cross. The DMI and the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo imply that the dollar is in a rally temporarily, however, the downside risks are accumulating. It is expected to rise slightly before starting to fall.USDX: Trend of the Dollar Has Been Mixed_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short
Entry Price: 106.824
Target Price: 105.465
Stop Loss: 107.80
Support: 105.465/104.651
Resistance: 106.034/106.824/107.291/107.735
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Jason

Analyst

I have an in-depth study of fundamentals, especiaslly for the US dollar market. I'm good at short and medium term trading by virtue of my profound financial theoretical knowledge and extensive practical experience.

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489

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Focus on

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