USDX
106.576

0.24%

XAUUSD
1827.86

0.38%

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83.304

0.15%

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1.05262

0.22%

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1.21599

0.21%

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148.337

0.51%

USNDAQ100
14790.97

0.18%

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      The Bottom Pattern Solid, Rally Can Be Expected

      Summary:

      The dollar has not fallen further since December but has fluctuated in a narrow range at the bottom. For now, the shape of the bottom is relatively solid. With the accumulated energy is sufficient, the rebound may be imminent.

      BUY USDX
      Close Time
      CLOSED

      104.000

      Opening Price

      108.000

      TP

      101.000

      SL

      106.576 -0.264 -0.24%

      265

      Point

      Profit

      101.000

      SL

      104.265

      Closing Price

      104.000

      Opening Price

      108.000

      TP

      Fundamentals

      For statistics, the Initial monthly wholesale inventory rate in the United States in November was 1%, higher than the expected 0.4% and the previous value of 0.5%. US FHFA House Price Index came in at 0% m/m in October, higher than expectations of -0.8% and lower than the previous reading of 0.10%. The U.S. S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index (SPCS20RSA) in October was 8.64% y/y, higher than the expected 8.00% and lower than the previous 10.43%. What’s more, the U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit was $83.3 billion in November, the lowest since December 2020, which is also well below economists' median forecast of $96.3 billion and the $98.8 billion deficit in goods trade in October. The U.S. data is mixed, with little impact on the dollar. In other words, the dollar has blunted against the data. 
      Overall, China has completely eased entry and exit restrictions yesterday, and optimism about reopening to improve the market has weighed on the dollar, which continues to hover at a nearly half-year low. However, since December, the dollar has not gone further down but has oscillated in a narrow range at the bottom, and the current technical form at the bottom is more solid, with sufficient accumulated energy. In addition, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose 9.3 bps to 3.845%, a new high in nearly a month and a half, which also largely reflects the Fed's tightening expectations. This may give the dollar greater support and rebound thrust. Therefore, the dollar will usher in a relatively comfortable rally at the beginning of the year. In addition, it is difficult for the US to avoid a recession at the beginning of next year under the choice of de-inflation, the first of which is risk assets dominated by US stocks. The market risk aversion after financial risk exposure will also support the phased strengthening of the US dollar.

      Technical Analysis

      Trading at the daily chart, the Dollar Index has been oscillating near the half-year low for a month, with a solid bottom pattern. Besides, the MACD has revealed a golden cross after the bullish divergence, which is gradually widening upward. The short-term bottoming signal has been strengthened. The Dollar Index may shift to bullish afterward.USDX: The Bottom Pattern Solid, Rally Can Be Expected_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading Direction: Long
      Entry Price: 104.000
      Target Price: 108.000
      Stop Loss: 101.000
      Support: 103.400/100.000
      Resistance: 105.800/109.300
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Focus on macroeconomic analysis with extra attention to the geopolitical impact on financial markets.

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      316

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      Focus on

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