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      USDX : USD's Oscillating Trend May Continue

      Summary:

      Market speculation about recession complicates the USD trend. As it stands, market speculation about recession may come a bit earlier than market expectations, and it may only be the beginning, with expectations of slowing down mixed in. It means that the USD will probably see some more shocks for a while before moving lower.

      Sell USDX
      EXP
      EXPIRED

      105.850

      ENTRY PRICE

      104.500

      TGT PRICE

      106.500

      SL PRICE

      102.468 -0.340 -0.33%

      --

      Point

      EXPIRED

      104.500

      TGT PRICE

      104.941

      CLOSING

      105.850

      ENTRY PRICE

      106.500

      SL PRICE

      Fundamentals

      After two consecutive sessions of gains, the USD closed lower again on Wednesday, essentially giving back all its gains from the previous session. Besides, the USD's movements in these two trading days were peculiar, and to figure out the reason, it is better to look at the global markets. Crude oil and the U.S. stock market also fell for two days in a row, while gold and U.S. Treasury Bonds were up for two sessions.
      What could cause crude oil and U.S. stocks to fall together, while safe-haven assets gold and U.S. Treasury Bonds rose? Obviously, the market's speculation about the recession. And the USD's special movement is caused by the market's expectations for the Fed's terminal interest rate, fluctuating at around 5% in these two trading days.
      The market has been expecting the Fed to slow the rate hikes soon, but recent positive U.S. employment, services, and manufacturing data have made the market more uncertain about the policy outlook. However, the speculation about the recession, in turn, supports the market's expectation that the Fed will soon slow its rate hikes. 
      Currently, the market speculation about recession may come a bit earlier than market expectations, and it may only be the beginning, with expectations of slowing down mixed in. Initially these two expectations may appear opposed (after all, the USD has safe-haven properties), and later, as the recession speculation deepens, there may be expectations of a Fed rate cut, which will strengthen the market's expectations of a Fed slowdown (in mid-November, that is, before Fed officials collectively suppressed market expectations, during that time the market's expectations of a Fed slowdown were quite strong, including the expectation that the Fed would cut interest rates soon).
      In other words, the USD is likely to see some more shocks before descending lower. 
      The initial jobless claims data will be released today, and the market expected it will be higher than the previous value, so be wary of the possibility that the data will cool down the slowdown expectations.

      Technical Analysis

      Referring to the 4-hour chart, the USD is back below it again after briefly breaking through the 61.8% Fibonacci retracements (105.465) yesterday. Also, try to watch the USD's performance at this line. If it holds below, it will continue to extend the downtrend. Short-term strong resistance is at 106.038, the USD will have limited upper space unless it breaks above this line. In addition, this line is at the bottom of the 106.038-107.211 oscillation range, while the 100 SMA is also in its vicinity. Short-term strong resistance is the bottom of the downward channel (104.495). For indicators, Stoch is showing a clear upside, DMI has signs of -DI going down through +DI, and -DI is at 22, indicating that the USD may depreciate after a rise. Regarding the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, the price is trying to break through the turning line. If it breaks this line successfully, it will plunge after a small rise, and vice versa, it will go straight down. In general, it is recommended to wait for the rise of the USD and then continue shorting. USDX : USD's Oscillating Trend May Continue _1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Short
      Entry price: 105.85
      Target price: 104.50
      Stop loss: 106.50
      Support: 104.952/104.495/104.016
      Resistance: 105.465/106.038/106.825
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Jason

      Analyst

      I have an in-depth study of fundamentals, especiaslly for the US dollar market. I'm good at short and medium term trading by virtue of my profound financial theoretical knowledge and extensive practical experience.

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