USDX
103.368

0.71%

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1966.03

1.35%

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70.339

2.99%

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1.07744

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1.25474

0.89%

USDJPY
138.908

0.83%

USNDAQ100
14474.75

1.18%

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      USDJPY: Ministry of Finance of Japan's Intervention also Failed to Prevent the JPY from Further Weakening

      Inflation and Recession
      Summary:

      Last week, the Ministry of Finance of Japan intervened in foreign exchange markets for the first time in 20 years. Nevertheless, this will only stabilize the exchange rate of the JPY in the short term, but it will not prevent the JPY from further weakening. The Ministry of Finance's intervention appears to have been triggered by the speed at which the JPY has weakened, rather than by policymakers' desire to set a specific level for the JPY. Therefore, as long as the JPY weakens gradually and orderly, the possibility of further intervention by the Ministry of Finance is very low.

      Buy USDJPY
      End Time
      CLOSED

      144.780

      ENTRY

      147.680

      TGT

      139.800

      SL

      138.908 -1.167 -0.83%

      93

      Points

      Loss

      139.800

      SL

      144.687

      CLOSING

      144.780

      ENTRY

      147.680

      TGT

      Fundamentals

      The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is buying government bonds to keep yields down. Last week, the Ministry of Finance of Japan intervened in foreign exchange markets for the first time in 20 years. Nevertheless, this will only stabilize the exchange rate of the JPY in the short term, but it will not prevent the JPY from further weakening.
      The BOJ's yield curve control instrument only limits the yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds, so in the BOJ's use of the instrument, the rise in yields can penetrate other government bonds. Even if the yield spread between U.S. and Japan government bonds continues to widen and the Federal Reserve continues to aggressively raise interest rates, the BOJ will continue to stay put.
      As a result, the BOJ has been buying ultra-long-term government bonds for two consecutive days in an attempt to contain rising yields. And although the Japanese authorities have been talking about the trend of the JPY and even spending huge amounts of money to support the JPY, it is generally believed that the JPY will remain weak while the BoJ's policies remain ultra-loose. The unplanned bond purchase is a sign of the continuation of the ultra-loose policy, so the pressure of weakening the JPY will continue.
      USDJPY: Ministry of Finance of Japan's Intervention also Failed to Prevent the JPY from Further Weakening_1

      Technical Analysis

      The USDJPY continued to move higher during the New York session on Tuesday after a two-day rally briefly lost momentum after approaching 145.00 as risk appetite began to reassert itself.
      Nevertheless, the overall trend remains bullish. The intraday pullback was due to the large volatility of the Ministry of Finance of Japan intervention's failure to significantly break through recent congestion, suggesting that the intervention failed to provide substantial support for the JPY, while the USD remained well supported by safe-haven flows and the Fed, a strong hawkish expectation.
      In the 4H timeframe, bulls break through and stand firm above the upward trend line in a consolidation state, indicating that bulls regain full control. The USDJPY's outlook remains unchanged as the range trading continues. Intraday bias remains neutral at this point. As long as 143.83 resistance is converted into support, it is expected to rebound further and break through 145.89 to move up towards 147.68 long-term resistance. On the downside, however, a decisive breakthrough to 145.89 also means confirming a short-term peak. It is recommended to go long at the lows.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: 144.70
      Target price: 147.68
      Stop loss: 139.80
      Deadline: 2022-10-11 20:00:00
      Support: 144.06, 143.54, 143.12
      Resistance: 144.78, 145.00, 145.90, 146.76
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Eva Chen

      Analyst

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

      Rank

      3

      Articless

      626

      Win Rate

      67.66%

      P/L Ratio

      0.56

      Focus on

      WTI, XAUUSD, USDCAD

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