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      USDJPY: Bullish Trend Remains with Mixed Messages from Indicators

      Inflation and Recession
      Summary:

      The USDJPY rose for the seventh straight week, marking the second straight month of strong gains for the USDJPY. The USDJPY tested the 145 threshold again earlier on Monday after indicators signaled mixed messages or more consolidation.

      Buy USDJPY
      EXP
      EXPIRED

      142.700

      ENTRY PRICE

      147.210

      TGT PRICE

      139.900

      SL PRICE

      137.351 -0.640 -0.46%

      --

      Point

      EXPIRED

      139.900

      SL PRICE

      148.605

      CLOSING

      142.700

      ENTRY PRICE

      147.210

      TGT PRICE

      Fundamentals

      The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) quarterly short-view survey shows a rather disturbing outlook. The large business manufacturing index unexpectedly fell from 9 to 8. The outlook for large manufacturers also fell from 10 to 9. The assessment for large non-manufacturers rose slightly from 13 to 14, but the outlook is starting to deteriorate.
      On the other hand, the Japanese industry expects capital expenditures to exceed expectations in FY22, reaching 21.3%. Large manufacturers have also indicated that they want to consider the average exchange rate for the current fiscal year (122.73 USD/JPY). This is much higher than the current rate of nearly 145.00. Regarding currency weakness, Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki warned again this morning that Japan is prepared to take decisive action to prevent excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market.
      The BOJ is buying government bonds to keep yields down. The BOJ's yield curve control tool only limits yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds, so as the BOJ uses the tool, rising yields will seep into other maturities. As a result, the BOJ has purchased ultra-long-term government bonds for two consecutive days in an attempt to curb rising yields.
      Market Observation: Despite the fact that Japanese authorities have been talking about the JPY's strength and even spending huge amounts of money to support it (last week the Japanese Ministry of Finance spent JP￥3.6 trillion to intervene in the currency market), it is widely believed that the JPY will continue to remain weak while the BOJ's policy remains ultra-easy. The unplanned bond purchase operations are a sign that the ultra-loose policy is continuing, so the pressure for a weaker JPY will continue.
      The USDJPY (bulls) recently moved to a three-week high after hitting a new 24-year high (145.90) on September 22 and was strongly rejected, before the pullback found a solid foundation above the psychological support of 140.00.
      Although the 1D structure remains bullish overall, the bullish momentum is weakening and the overbought stochastics are warning that the bulls will face some consolidation or pullback before recovering; however, the USD remains firm on strong fundamental support and is expected to hit new highs again, with a break above the previous highs signaling a bullish continuation.
      USDJPY: Bullish Trend Remains with Mixed Messages from Indicators_1

      Technical Analysis

      The USDJPY is back to the key mission ceiling of 145.00 for further upside for the bulls after fully recovering the losses from the 140.34 level last week (when the Japanese Foreign Ministry intervened in the market).
      While stochastics is still bullish, RSI and MACD are sending some mixed messages. Among them, the RSI is struggling to make higher highs in the bullish zone, while the MACD holding steady below the 0-axis sends a key signal that the USDJPY failed to move further up after testing 145.00 again in the early Asian session today.
      Nevertheless, for the bulls, 142.00 can still provide solid support for further upside; holding it will clear the way for another test of 145.00 and an encounter with the top level in 1998.
      Overall, USDJPY is cautiously bullish in the near term. The next round of the bull-bear contest is expected to start above the 142.00 -145.00 level. It is recommended to go long at the lows.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: 142.70
      Target price: 147.21
      Stop loss: 139.90
      Deadline: 2022-10-17 20:00:00
      Support: 144.15, 143.90, 143.12, 142.46
      Resistance: 145.31, 145.90, 146.40, 147.21
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Eva Chen

      Analyst

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

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