USDX
102.734

0.01%

XAUUSD
2043.11

0.10%

WTI
76.762

0.22%

EURUSD
1.09916

0.00%

GBPUSD
1.26983

0.05%

USDJPY
147.382

0.05%

USNDAQ100
16049.85

0.14%

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      Bullish Trend Remains with Mixed Messages from Indicators

      Summary:

      The USDJPY rose for the seventh straight week, marking the second straight month of strong gains for the USDJPY. The USDJPY tested the 145 threshold again earlier on Monday after indicators signaled mixed messages or more consolidation.

      BUY USDJPY
      EXP
      EXPIRED

      142.700

      Entry Price

      147.210

      TP

      139.900

      SL

      147.382 -0.075 -0.05%

      --

      Pips

      EXPIRED

      139.900

      SL

      148.605

      Exit Price

      142.700

      Entry Price

      147.210

      TP

      Fundamentals

      The Bank of Japan's (BOJ) quarterly short-view survey shows a rather disturbing outlook. The large business manufacturing index unexpectedly fell from 9 to 8. The outlook for large manufacturers also fell from 10 to 9. The assessment for large non-manufacturers rose slightly from 13 to 14, but the outlook is starting to deteriorate.
      On the other hand, the Japanese industry expects capital expenditures to exceed expectations in FY22, reaching 21.3%. Large manufacturers have also indicated that they want to consider the average exchange rate for the current fiscal year (122.73 USD/JPY). This is much higher than the current rate of nearly 145.00. Regarding currency weakness, Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki warned again this morning that Japan is prepared to take decisive action to prevent excessive volatility in the foreign exchange market.
      The BOJ is buying government bonds to keep yields down. The BOJ's yield curve control tool only limits yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds, so as the BOJ uses the tool, rising yields will seep into other maturities. As a result, the BOJ has purchased ultra-long-term government bonds for two consecutive days in an attempt to curb rising yields.
      Market Observation: Despite the fact that Japanese authorities have been talking about the JPY's strength and even spending huge amounts of money to support it (last week the Japanese Ministry of Finance spent JP¥3.6 trillion to intervene in the currency market), it is widely believed that the JPY will continue to remain weak while the BOJ's policy remains ultra-easy. The unplanned bond purchase operations are a sign that the ultra-loose policy is continuing, so the pressure for a weaker JPY will continue.
      The USDJPY (bulls) recently moved to a three-week high after hitting a new 24-year high (145.90) on September 22 and was strongly rejected, before the pullback found a solid foundation above the psychological support of 140.00.
      Although the 1D structure remains bullish overall, the bullish momentum is weakening and the overbought stochastics are warning that the bulls will face some consolidation or pullback before recovering; however, the USD remains firm on strong fundamental support and is expected to hit new highs again, with a break above the previous highs signaling a bullish continuation.
      USDJPY: Bullish Trend Remains with Mixed Messages from Indicators_1

      Technical Analysis

      The USDJPY is back to the key mission ceiling of 145.00 for further upside for the bulls after fully recovering the losses from the 140.34 level last week (when the Japanese Foreign Ministry intervened in the market).
      While stochastics is still bullish, RSI and MACD are sending some mixed messages. Among them, the RSI is struggling to make higher highs in the bullish zone, while the MACD holding steady below the 0-axis sends a key signal that the USDJPY failed to move further up after testing 145.00 again in the early Asian session today.
      Nevertheless, for the bulls, 142.00 can still provide solid support for further upside; holding it will clear the way for another test of 145.00 and an encounter with the top level in 1998.
      Overall, USDJPY is cautiously bullish in the near term. The next round of the bull-bear contest is expected to start above the 142.00 -145.00 level. It is recommended to go long at the lows.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: 142.70
      Target price: 147.21
      Stop loss: 139.90
      Deadline: 2022-10-17 20:00:00
      Support: 144.15, 143.90, 143.12, 142.46
      Resistance: 145.31, 145.90, 146.40, 147.21
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

       EUR Will Witness a Decline in the Short Term as Upward Space Is Limited

      Jason
      Summary:

      Many bearish factors make the EUT weak. The short-term rise depends entirely on the weakening of the USD. Once the bearish factors in the USD disappear, the EUR will fall again.

      SELL EURUSD
      Close Time
      CLOSED

      0.98283

      Entry Price

      0.97374

      TP

      0.98771

      SL

      1.09914 +0.00002 +0.00%

      13.9

      Pips

      Profit

      0.97374

      TP

      0.98144

      Exit Price

      0.98283

      Entry Price

      0.98771

      SL

      Fundamentals

      Due to the imminent release of inflation data from the eurozone and the U.S. last Friday, the market was dominated by a strong wait-and-see sentiment. The EUR was basically in a consolidation state during the Asian session and right after the opening of the European session. The eurozone's HICP then hit a new high of 10.0% in September, which will cement the ECB's decision to raise interest rates by a further 75 basis points at its October meeting. However, as European Central Bank (ECB) officials have said recently that a 75-basis-point interest rate hike should be made in October, the market has long expected this. The expected interest rate hike generated by HICP has little impact on the EUR. On the contrary, due to the further high inflation and a series of problems in the eurozone such as the energy crisis, the market has been worried about the eurozone economy and the EUR has plunged by nearly 100 points in the short term. US PCE data also unexpectedly rose a little later, and the EUR was able to rise at a low level and close slightly lower by 0.15% due to the "buy the rumor & sell the fact " market behavior after the market had already digested the expectation of the November interest rate increase.
      At present, the eurozone is in turmoil. According to the French newspaper Les Échos, four economic research institutions have reduced Germany's economic growth forecast to 1.4% this year. Four institutions predict that a recession in Germany seems inevitable. The recession will start in the last quarter of this year and will further intensify early next year. Germany's GDP is likely to fall by 0.4% in 2023.
      The leakage and repair of the Nord Stream pipeline will also delay the gas transmission time. This will undoubtedly aggravate the problem of energy shortage. In addition, many countries have also staged demonstrations to protest against the energy sanctions against Russia.
      In addition, the possibility of economic recession in the eurozone is increasing. On the whole, the EUR is currently weak and abnormal. The short-term rise is entirely dependent on the weakening of the USD. Once the USD's negative interest rate is exhausted, the EUR will decline again.

      Technical Analysis

      In the 4H timeframe, the EUR rebounded after hitting the bottom of the downtrend channel and is currently blocked by the 38.2% Fibonacci Expansion Level (0.98283), recovering all the downturns since September 23, showing a V-shaped reversal pattern. The strong resistance from above was 0.99107. Since the EUR fell below this support on September 21, it has been heading all the way to the bottom of the downtrend channel. Only by breaking through this line can the EUR have room for further rise. The key support below is 0.95207, and a break below this line will open a new round of declines. As for indicators, Stoch, DMI, and Ichimoku chart all indicate that the EUR will fall in the short term.
      EURUSD: EUR Will Witness a Decline in the Short Term as Upward Space Is Limited_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Short
      Entry price: 0.98283
      Target price: 0.97374
      Stop loss: 0.98771
      Support: 0.97550, 0.97134, 0.96764
      Resistance: 0.98283, 0.98518, 0.98771
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

      Disagreement within the Fed Can Affect the Dollar's Rally

      Jason
      Summary:

      Disagreement within the Fed on the rate hike size may cause a divergence in market expectations. The dollar rally may be affected.

      BUY USDX
      Close Time
      CLOSED

      111.750

      Entry Price

      112.670

      TP

      111.200

      SL

      102.734 -0.019 -0.01%

      23.5

      Pips

      Profit

      111.200

      SL

      111.985

      Exit Price

      111.750

      Entry Price

      112.670

      TP

      Fundamentals

      The dollar swung to the upside last Friday, ending losses for two consecutive days and closing up 0.36%. It also capped off the third quarter. The dollar rose 6.7% during the quarter, gaining for five consecutive quarters.
      The current market has fully digested the news of the Bank of England's intervention in the bond market, which has made the biggest driver of the dollar's decline in recent trading days "disappear". At the same time, due to the unexpectedly high U.S. PCE, inflation showed its stickiness, and fighting against inflation is not easy. The market expects the Fed will continue to maintain the current rate hike size. It should be noted that the speeches of Fed officials last Friday showed that there has been disagreement within the Fed. While the unified opinion is to continue to raise rates, it is divided between continuing to maintain aggressive rate hikes and slightly slower rate hikes (that is, from 75 basis points to 50 basis points).
      According to Mester, aggressive rate hikes must continue to win the battle against inflation, even if it leads to a recession. It may be better to take more aggressive action because taking aggressive and pre-emptive action can prevent the worst scenario from actually happening.
      In addition, Brainard gave a slightly softer assessment that moving forward cautiously and acting in a data-driven manner will allow us to understand how economic activity and inflation will respond to cumulative rate hikes.
      From the speeches of officials last week, the Fed can be broadly divided into two factions, one advocating "aggressive rate hikes" and the other advocating "careful advancement." This divergence can be seen in the dot plot released at the September meeting, where eight officials forecast a range of 4% to 4.25% at the end of the year, while 9 officials forecast 25 basis points higher.
      Several Fed officials with voting rights this year are scheduled to speak this week, which means that the market may no longer look in general terms at what the Fed officials will express, but rather look for disagreement, that is, the disagreement between Fed officials. It also means that market expectations will probably diverge again.
      For two weeks in a row, a large number of Fed officials spoke, and even a "wave" can describe the situation, which is very rare. This may be the Fed's intentional arrangement. Last week's speeches were to express the determination to fight inflation. And this week's speeches are likely to "save" the market to avoid a precipitating decline in the stock market.
      If there is a different expression on the speed of interest rate hikes this week, it will bring a hint of variability to the market trend.

      Technical Analysis

      In the 4-hour chart, the dollar is still hovering around the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 112.372. If it stands firm under this line, the dollar will have the conditions for a deep retracement, which needs to be focused on. The strong support below is 111.30, which is the last support when the dollar retreated from the 120 high in 2001 and 2002. The long-short divide is 109.178, and the dollar will open a downtrend below this line. Although the dollar closed up last Friday, in the current situation, it can only be considered to stop falling, and only to re-break above 113.942 can open a new round of rallies. In terms of indicators, Stoch, DMI, and the Ichimoku cloud are showing that the dollar will start to rise after a short-term decline.
      USDX: Disagreement within the Fed Can Affect the Dollar's Rally_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trade direction: Long
      Entry price: 111.75
      Target price: 112.670
      Stop loss: 111.200
      Support: 111.853, 111.300, 110.873
      Resistance: 112.372, 112.906, 113.500
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

      Oscillating in a Range without Market Reversal

      Damon
      Summary:

      After more than a week of adjustment, the oscillating trend in a range has been formed. Before the release of non-farm data this Friday, ETH is unlikely to be volatile.

      BUY ETH-USDT
      Close Time
      CLOSED

      1288.24

      Entry Price

      1360.00

      TP

      1240.00

      SL

      2057.56 +21.15 +1.03%

      344.8

      Pips

      Profit

      1240.00

      SL

      1322.72

      Exit Price

      1288.24

      Entry Price

      1360.00

      TP

      Hot News

      1. Japanese Prime Minister: Will vigorously promote the use of Web3 services such as metaverse and NFT.
      2. Pro-Russian groups are raising funds in crypto.
      3. A U.S. senator introduces the "No Digital Dollar Act" to prohibit the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve from interfering with Americans' use of paper money.

      Sentiment

      The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 24, representing extreme fear. The index was 24 yesterday and 21 the day before yesterday. The market now is in a period without important news released. And as U.S. stocks decline several times, mainstream cryptocurrencies have resisted the pressure. Although the sentiment has not improved, it is clear to see that cryptocurrencies are more supported in the short term.

      Technical Analysis

      ETH has been going down since the merger in September, once hitting the lowest in the 1220-1250 range which was the starting point of the previous big rally. After more than a week of adjustment, the oscillating trend has been formed, with the resistance above in the 1360-1420 range and the support near 1250. Before the release of non-farm data this Friday, ETH is unlikely to be volatile. So it is recommended to buy low and sell high in this range.
      ETH 2-Hour Candlestick Chart
      ETH-USDT: Oscillating in a Range without Market Reversal_1
      ETH Daily Candlestick Chart
      ETH-USDT: Oscillating in a Range without Market Reversal_2

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: Market price
      Target price: 1360
      Stop loss: 1240
      Support: 1250, 1000
      Resistance: 1360, 1420
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

      Rally Will End as Dollar Stands Firm

      King Ten
      Summary:

      After a week of rallies, the euro meets strong resistance again. Our focus will be on the resistance around 0.99000.

      SELL EURUSD
      Close Time
      CLOSED

      0.99000

      Entry Price

      0.95000

      TP

      1.01000

      SL

      1.09914 +0.00002 +0.00%

      194.1

      Pips

      Profit

      0.95000

      TP

      0.97059

      Exit Price

      0.99000

      Entry Price

      1.01000

      SL

      Fundamentals

      The S&P Global Eurozone composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell further in September. German business activity saw an increased slump as higher energy costs hit the largest economy in Europe. Companies also recorded a drop in new business. The entire euro area faces a bigger test of economic decline as winter approaches.
      The U.S. second-quarter GDP data released last week was in line with expectations, but the PCE price index was revised upward. Upward revisions to some indices also suggested that the output gap was even more negative than previously thought, thus increasing the need for further tightening to bring spending into line with supply. In addition, the unexpected drop in initial jobless claims was another sign of a tight labor market. Economic activity remained very buoyant. The dollar has also stabilized, so perhaps this wave of EURUSD rally is basically over and a new round of downside is imminent.

      Technical Analysis

      In the daily chart, the EURUSD is still in the downside channel but approaching the upper edge and there is relatively great resistance. Our focus should be on the resistance effect around the 0.99 mark.
      EURUSD: Rally Will End as Dollar Stands Firm_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Short
      Entry price: 0.99000
      Target price: 0.95000
      Stop loss: 1.01000
      Support: 0.97000, 0.95000
      Resistance: 1.00000, 1.02000
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

      Long at Lows as Production Cuts Are Expected to Strengthen

      King Ten
      Summary:

      OPEC+ production cut is expected to strengthen again in the face of the recent weak oil market, so we can go long on WTI crude at lows in the short term.

      BUY WTI
      EXP
      EXPIRED

      80.000

      Entry Price

      87.000

      TP

      78.000

      SL

      76.762 +0.173 +0.22%

      --

      Pips

      EXPIRED

      78.000

      SL

      91.171

      Exit Price

      80.000

      Entry Price

      87.000

      TP

      Fundamentals

      OPEC+ will hold its first face-to-face meeting since the pandemic. JPMorgan Chase and other investment banks predict the organization may need to cut production by at least 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) to stabilize oil prices, and Royal Bank of Canada believes OPEC+'s production cuts will be twice as large as speculation. According to media reports, the larger-than-expected cut reflects OPEC+'s concern about the rapid global economic slowdown at a time when monetary policy is rapidly tightening.
      OPEC and non-OPEC producers are considering cutting oil production by more than 1 million bpd, Reuters reported on October 2. OPEC+ may consider cutting production by more than 1 million bpd at its Oct. 5 meeting in Vienna, an OPEC representative said.

      Technical Analysis

      In the daily chart, the daily candlestick is oscillating around 81.5 which is the resistance level in the 4-hour timeframe. The current downside channel remains smooth, but the price is likely to challenge the pressure at the upper edge of the channel. Later on, we will observe whether the price can successfully stabilize above the 20-day SMA, and we will still expect it to rebound.
      WTI: Long at Lows as Production Cuts Are Expected to Strengthen_1

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: 80.000
      Target price: 87.000
      Stop loss: 78.000
      Support: 78.000, 75.000
      Resistance: 85.000, 87.000
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

      All the Way Up after "Denying Death Cross"?

      Eva Chen
      Summary:

      Canada's economy grew 0.1% in July, beating Statistics Canada's estimate of -0.1%. Initial estimates for August were largely flat. CAD long positions have fallen sharply, and this trend is most likely to continue, which will push the CAD lower again. Can the technical refusal of a death cross push the CADUSD all the way up?

      BUY USDCAD
      Close Time
      CLOSED

      1.36400

      Entry Price

      1.40000

      TP

      1.34600

      SL

      1.35632 -0.00089 -0.06%

      36.9

      Pips

      Profit

      1.34600

      SL

      1.36769

      Exit Price

      1.36400

      Entry Price

      1.40000

      TP

      Fundamentals

      The increase in activities in July was mainly concentrated in the commodity sector. The commodity production sector rose by 0.5%, while the service production sector fell by 0.1%. Output is expanding in 11 of the 20 industries. Among them, the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas industries experienced significant growth, with a 1.9% growth for the month. This was "the product of the increase in synthetic oil production and the record level of marketable crude bitumen in Alberta that contributed the most to the growth". Oil sand production increased after the facility overhaul in the second quarter of 2022, which limited production until July.
      Retail trade and accommodation & food services grew weakly this month as consumers began to cut back on spending.
      Market observation: Canada's unexpected economic growth in July was led by the materials industry against the backdrop of high commodity prices. Despite the apparent weakness in some consumer-oriented sectors, the July economic data, together with the August forecast, reconfirmed our expectations for continued growth to about 1% in the third quarter. Given the pressure on the economy from high inflation and fast-rising interest rates, such growth is already impressive.
      For its part, the Bank of Canada (BOC) needs to see a further slowdown to ease inflationary pressures. We have seen this in recent labor market indicators, but GDP continues to remain positive, and how long this will continue is uncertain, especially given that we expect the BOC to raise interest rates to 4% by the end of the year.
      On the market side: in the past week, we have seen significant fluctuations in the money market, with the weakening of risk appetite pushing the USD higher. The CAD was hit by both the Fed's aggressive policies and the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which curbed risk appetite. For these reasons, the CAD was miserable in September, as the USDCAD rose 4.5%.
      For the CAD, there is still additional resistance to further depreciation against the USD. That is, the BOC took the lead in tightening measures to raise the benchmark interest rate to 3.25%. The Fed's terminal rate is higher than Canada's (4.60% versus 4.10%). This means that the CAD will not benefit from the higher spread and Canadian bond yields are already lower than those of the U.S. In addition, Canada is a major exporter of crude oil, and the drop in crude oil prices has put pressure on the CAD. In addition, we have seen a sharp decline in the long positions of the CAD, and this trend is most likely to continue, pushing down the CAD again.
      USDCAD: All the Way Up after "Denying Death Cross"?_1

      Technical Analysis

      On Wednesday, the USDCAD rose to 1.3833 above the bullish channel before moving into consolidation. It is worth noting that this area coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from March 2020 to June 2021.
      Surprisingly, the 1.3600 range has formed a "denying death cross" pattern to help the market consolidate some weekly gains, but as the RSI and stochastics hover in the overbought zone, it is doubtful how far the gains will go. Nevertheless, as the indicators remain high in the bullish areas, there will be some room for further upward movement before the next bearish wave begins.
      If bulls push the USDCAD above the key resistance range of 1.3725-1.3831, the rally will accelerate towards the 1.4000-1.4035 range from March to May 2020. Beyond this level, the next resistance will appear around 1.4140.
      However, a downward reversal will retest the support of 1.3600. If it proves easy to break through, the sell-off will extend to 1.3500. If it drops, the 20-day SMA at 1.3347 would be the last line of defense to consolidate the outlook for the upward trend.
      Overall, the USDCAD remained bullish in both the short and long term, although prices continued to trade in the overbought zone, and concerns that the upward trend has peaked will continue to depress market sentiment. However, for all the factors we have observed above, the long-term outlook remains bullish. It is recommended to go long with caution.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: 1.3640
      Target price: 1.4000
      Stop loss: 1.3460
      Deadline: 2022-10-14 20:00:00
      Support: 1.3654, 1.3600, 1.3500
      Resistance: 1.3756, 1.3793, 1.3831
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

      Eva Chen

      Analyst

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

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