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Trending
SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6870.39
6870.39
6870.39
6895.79
6858.28
+13.27
+ 0.19%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47954.98
47954.98
47954.98
48133.54
47871.51
+104.05
+ 0.22%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23578.12
23578.12
23578.12
23680.03
23506.00
+72.99
+ 0.31%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.950
99.030
98.950
99.060
98.740
-0.030
-0.03%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16426
1.16443
1.16426
1.16715
1.16277
-0.00019
-0.02%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33312
1.33342
1.33312
1.33622
1.33159
+0.00041
+ 0.03%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4197.91
4197.91
4197.91
4259.16
4191.87
-9.26
-0.22%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.809
60.061
59.809
60.236
59.187
+0.426
+ 0.72%
--
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Proceeding with Caution Advised in Both Bull and Bear Markets Due to Excessive Stop Loss Space
Summary:
After touching $2,305 overnight, gold prices softened slightly during the late New York session. With escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, safe-haven demand continues to be a primary driver of gold purchases by investors; meanwhile, the US March nonfarm payroll data will be the most crucial reference point later today for assessing expectations of a Fed interest rate cut.
CLOSED
2310.00
Entry Price
2365.00
TP
2279.00
SL
4197.91 -9.26 -0.22%
550.0
Pips
Profit
2279.00
SL
2365.00
Exit Price
2310.00
Entry Price
2365.00
TP
Fundamentals
As investors continue to bet on a Fed interest rate cut later this year, the price of gold received support during the Asian and European sessions today after a slight softening overnight. Meanwhile, amidst escalating geopolitical tensions, the safe-haven appeal of gold has also increased.
Currently, the market anticipates a high probability of future interest rate cuts by the Fed despite a minor correction in gold prices. Fed Chairman Powell affirmed the central bank's commitment to bringing inflation down to the 2% target during a speech at Stanford Graduate School of Business, emphasizing an overall optimistic economic outlook.
Powell highlighted robust economic growth, labor market resilience, and gradual inflation moderation. "We do not expect that it will be appropriate to lower our policy rate until we have greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably down toward 2 percent," he stated. "Given the strength of the economy and progress on inflation so far, we have time to let the incoming data guide our decisions on policy."
Although Fed officials emphasize the need for more data before considering rate cuts (the financial markets widely expect cuts in June), investors still believe rate cuts are imminent. Interest rate markets currently price in around a 60% probability of a rate cut at the June Fed meeting, with a total expected cut of 75 basis points by the end of the year.
In addition to rate-cut speculation, gold prices have been supported by safe-haven demand amid escalating geopolitical risks. Strong central bank purchases, particularly from emerging market economies, have enhanced gold's attractiveness. Meanwhile, recent economic data further supports the Fed's adoption of a more accommodative policy stance, including an unexpected surge in US initial jobless claims and a slowdown in service sector growth.
Looking ahead to the final trading day of the week, all eyes are on the US employment report for March, scheduled for release on Friday. The market currently expects the US March employment report to show an addition of 200,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate dropping to 3.8% and hourly earnings growth of 0.3%. A report below expectations could further intensify expectations of a Fed pivot.
Market Outlook: After pausing on Thursday following a record-breaking seven consecutive trading days of gains, gold prices remain poised for a third consecutive weekly gain. Now, the market focus shifts to the US March nonfarm payroll data, which could provide further clues to the Fed's monetary policy trajectory.
We believe gold prices will continue to rise amid normal corrections, driven by a declining US dollar, investor expectations of Fed interest rate cuts this year, economic uncertainties, and escalating tensions in the Middle East. As for the outlook for gold, we believe it is trading in overbought territory. In the coming days, gold prices are likely to peak, targeting the range of $2,346 to $2,365.
Technical Analysis
Gold briefly surpassed $2,304 overnight, marking another round of new highs, which serves as a directional signal for assessing the outlook for gold.
Observing the historical records of previous instances of reaching all-time highs, from the daily timeframe perspective, the relative strength index (RSI) approached the peak seen in early March on Wednesday, after which the past consolidation began. In March 2022, bears dominated at similar overbought levels. However, in July 2020, the price continued to rise after reaching similar RSI parameters. In similar situations in 2019 and 2020, there was a growth stop but not a reversal.
Tonight's NFP report may once again become a turning point for gold. Now is the time for bulls to be wary of the significance of employment data for gold. As all short- to long-term moving averages continue to trend higher, demand remains strong in the near term. On the downside, the high point of March 21 at $2,223 will serve as a key support area for gold bulls.
Overall, the technical analysis suggests an overextended rebound, but the upward market structure remains robust, indicating that any potential correction will be part of a positive trend. In terms of trading, buying the dips is recommended as the primary strategy.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Long
Entry Price: 2258
Target Price: 2365
Stop Loss: 2260
Valid Until: 2024-04-19 23:55:00
Support: 2274, 2265, 2240, 2228
Resistance: 2300, 2305, 2320, 2345
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