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Potential Retracement Could Open Buying Opportunities
Summary:
The EUR/USD reached a local low of 1.0330 on November 22 before rebounding toward the 1.0449 zone, a level previously tested on October 3 and acting as support. S
CLOSED
1.05218
Entry Price
1.07850
TP
1.04000
SL
1.05018 +0.00366 +0.35%
61.8
Pips
Profit
1.04000
SL
1.05836
Exit Price
1.05218
Entry Price
1.07850
TP
On Tuesday, Mario Centeno, an ECB policymaker and head of Portugal's central bank, expressed concerns about the Eurozone's economy, describing it as "stalling" and facing "mounting downside risks." Among these, Centeno highlighted tariffs threatened by former U.S. President Trump as an additional challenge. On monetary policy, he warned of the risk that inflation might fail to meet the ECB's target, emphasizing the importance of not delaying rate cuts for too long.
In contrast, Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB’s Executive Board, played down fears of inflation falling short of the bank's target. Speaking with Bloomberg on Wednesday, Schnabel pointed to persistently high inflation in the services sector. On the outlook for interest rates, she stated, "Given the inflation outlook, I believe we can gradually move toward neutrality if incoming data continues to confirm our baseline."
A rate cut by the ECB at its December meeting appears almost certain. However, market participants remain divided on the likely magnitude of the cut. According to a note from ING analysts, "The prevailing view is that there’s no fiscal salvation in the Eurozone, and the only way to address current woes is for the ECB to cut rates faster than usual. Markets are pricing in a 37 bps probability of a 50 bps rate cut in December, with short-term rate spreads between the U.S. and Eurozone still wide at 190 bps."
Investors will closely watch the preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for November, covering the Eurozone and its largest economies, set to be released on Thursday and Friday.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., the second reading of Q3 GDP is expected to show robust economic growth at 2.8%, unchanged from the preliminary estimate. Personal spending for October is forecast to rise by 0.4%, while both headline and core PCE price index readings are projected to climb from September, reaching 2.3% and 2.8%, respectively.
These data points may heighten concerns among some policymakers that progress on inflation has stalled since the summer. Strong growth and rising PCE figures could dampen expectations for a December rate cut by the Fed, particularly as policymakers have grown increasingly cautious, as reflected in the minutes from the November FOMC meeting.
Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD reached a local low of 1.0330 on November 22 before rebounding toward the 1.0449 zone, a level previously tested on October 3 and acting as support. Since then, the pair has retraced to 1.0550. Should the 1.0520 level hold firm, it could pave the way for a renewed bullish push toward the 1.0785 region.
The 100- and 200-period moving averages are positioned well above the current price, at approximately 1.0830, indicating that the pair remains significantly below these long-term averages. The recent downward movement appears overextended, with key support levels briefly breached before being recovered, suggesting the potential for a corrective move higher.
From a Fibonacci perspective, a retracement to the 50% level near 1.0785 aligns with a notable price resistance zone. If this resistance is reached, it may serve as a key level to assess the pair's momentum for further upside or a potential reversal.
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Buy
Entry price: 1.05220
Target price: 1.07850
Stop loss: 1.0400
Validity: Dec 5, 2024 15:00:00
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