Potential for a Deeper Pullback Builds After Triple Tap on Resistance

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

This latest rejection coincides with a temporary easing of trade tensions, which could lend medium-term support to the U.S. dollar.

SELL EURUSD

EXP

PENDING

1.14200

Entry Price

1.09500

1.16200

1.12045 +0.00243 +0.22%

Pips

PENDING

1.09500

Exit Price

1.14200

Entry Price

1.16200

The European Central Bank (ECB) appears firmly on course to deliver its eighth rate cut within a twelve-month period, marking its seventh consecutive reduction. This growing conviction among market participants reflects the belief that inflation in the euro area is gradually converging toward the ECB’s 2% target by the end of the year. In parallel, the possibility of further economic headwinds, especially due to tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, has added to expectations that the central bank will continue loosening policy in the coming months to shield the fragile recovery.

In recent weeks, several ECB policymakers have spoken publicly in favor of maintaining an accommodative approach, noting that inflation remains vulnerable to downside risks. Their statements reveal a strong consensus within the Governing Council to act preemptively rather than reactively, as the eurozone continues to navigate both structural weaknesses and external shocks. Against this backdrop, market speculation has intensified, with many analysts now expecting the ECB to deliver additional stimulus sooner rather than later to prevent deflationary pressures from becoming entrenched.

Meanwhile, prospects for a near-term trade agreement between the United States and the European Union appear to have dimmed. Speaking during Tuesday’s European session, EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic emphasized that the bloc is actively strengthening its relationships with other trading partners—who collectively represent 87% of the EU’s exports—according to The Straits Times. When pressed about the status of U.S.-EU trade talks, Sefcovic reiterated the EU’s commitment to reaching a fair and balanced deal but pointed to Washington’s lack of meaningful engagement as a key obstacle to progress.

Across the Atlantic, President Trump on Thursday described what he called a major breakthrough in trade relations with the United Kingdom and suggested that tariffs on Chinese goods might be eased ahead of the upcoming round of high-level U.S.-China negotiations. At the same time, he renewed his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, highlighting once again the friction between the White House and the central bank over monetary policy direction.

Despite mounting political pressure, the Federal Reserve opted on Wednesday to leave interest rates unchanged for the third straight meeting. Citing growing economic uncertainty, the central bank maintained a cautious tone, pushing back against calls from the administration for more aggressive easing.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, during his press conference, underscored the central bank’s data-dependent approach, noting that policymakers intend to proceed with patience as they monitor the effects of trade policy on inflation and employment. “There is no need to act hastily,” Powell said, pointing to the unpredictable nature of ongoing trade negotiations and their potential macroeconomic implications.

“We simply can’t forecast how this situation will evolve,” he acknowledged, while noting that the overall level of uncertainty remains unusually elevated. Powell reaffirmed that the Fed is prepared to respond as needed but stressed that the current stance remains appropriate given the available data.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate within its target range of 4.25% to 4.50%—a level last established in late 2024 following a full percentage point reduction during the previous autumn. In its post-meeting statement, the Fed conceded that economic uncertainty had “increased further,” even as the underlying pace of growth remains “solid,” albeit distorted by volatility in net export data during early 2025. Potential for a Deeper Pullback Builds After Triple Tap on Resistance_1

Potential for a Deeper Pullback Builds After Triple Tap on Resistance_1

Technical Analysis

EURUSD has recently tested the upper boundary of a rising resistance line for the third time, encountering renewed selling pressure at this level. This latest rejection coincides with a temporary easing of trade tensions, which could lend medium-term support to the U.S. dollar. If the local resistance around 1.1420 once again proves difficult to breach, the pair could be poised for a deeper pullback, with the next major support level situated near 1.0950.

The 100-period and 200-period moving averages are currently located at 1.0723 and 1.0791, respectively, and have shown a sideways trend since the beginning of the year. This technical behavior suggests that price could be magnetized back toward this consolidation zone. Adding to this bearish setup, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently reached 77, signaling clear overbought conditions and potentially attracting dollar buyers seeking to rebalance.

Notably, the 0.50 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels lie just above these long-term moving averages, reinforcing the likelihood of a corrective move toward that zone. However, should EURUSD manage to post a new local high above current resistance, the bearish outlook would be invalidated, opening the door to a renewed upside extension.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1420

Target price: 1.0950

Stop loss: 1.1620

Validity: May 21, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Summary:

The EUR/JPY pair retreats from recent highs as traders assess central bank divergence, revived but fragile U.S.–China trade talks, and weak Japanese economic data. Market focus shifts to ECB’s Schnabel for forward guidance.

BUY EURJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

163.604

Entry Price

164.900

162.500

163.006 +0.097 +0.06%

88.3

Pips

Profit

162.500

164.487

Exit Price

163.604

Entry Price

164.900

The euro slipped against the Japanese yen on Friday, with the EUR/JPY pair trading around 163.45, down 0.20%, as risk sentiment cooled and market participants turned cautious ahead of a key speech by European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Isabel Schnabel. The pullback comes after the pair briefly tested resistance at 163.94, only to reverse amid a convergence of geopolitical, monetary, and macroeconomic forces.

While the broader trend for the euro remains supported by the stark monetary policy divergence between the ECB and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), near-term jitters over global trade tensions and soft Japanese data have tempered the bullish momentum. Markets are recalibrating expectations as the euro faces conflicting cues: hawkish ECB rhetoric on one hand, and growing global uncertainty on the other.

A key driver of the broader risk mood this week has been the rekindled dialogue between the United States and China, with high-level trade negotiations set to take place in Switzerland this weekend. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are scheduled to meet their Chinese counterparts—a development that initially boosted risk appetite and lent support to EUR/JPY's upside.

However, that optimism was quickly diluted after former President Donald Trump—now a leading candidate in the upcoming election—muddied the waters by proposing an 80% tariff on Chinese imports, a proposal that, while lower than the current effective tariff rate of 145%, injects fresh uncertainty into an already fraught U.S.–China trade relationship.

This tariff saber-rattling has pushed investors back into safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen, traditionally favored during times of heightened geopolitical uncertainty. Nonetheless, the yen’s gains have been modest, as its appeal continues to be undermined by the BoJ’s unwavering commitment to ultra-loose monetary policy.

Investor caution is also being driven by the upcoming speech by Isabel Schnabel, a known hawk on the ECB Governing Council, who is set to speak at the Hoover Institution’s Monetary Policy Conference. Traders are watching closely for clues about the ECB’s rate path, particularly as the market gears up for a possible 25 basis point rate cut in June.

Despite signs of a pivot, ECB officials have stressed that policy decisions remain data-dependent, and recent comments have suggested the central bank is not yet ready to declare victory over inflation. Any hawkish tone from Schnabel—especially against the backdrop of continued economic strength in parts of the euro area—could reignite euro bullishness and strengthen EUR/JPY in the medium term.

By contrast, the Bank of Japan remains staunchly dovish. Governor Kazuo Ueda and his team have shown no urgency to tighten policy further after their historic March rate hike. With inflation still tepid and domestic consumption weak, Japanese officials have repeatedly emphasized patience, reinforcing the euro’s relative advantage.

Friday’s Japanese data release offered little to bolster yen bulls. The Coincident Index, which tracks current economic conditions, declined to 116.0 from a revised 117.3, underscoring sluggish domestic momentum. Meanwhile, the Leading Economic Index came in at 107.7, a modest beat relative to expectations (107.5) but down from the previous reading of 108.2, suggesting a softening outlook for future activity.

The weak print aligns with the broader narrative of Japan’s economic malaise, keeping pressure on the BoJ to maintain its easing bias. Inflation, wage growth, and business investment all remain tepid, and without a credible uptick in price pressures, the central bank is likely to remain sidelined for now.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY recently broke above the 163.25 barrier, climbing to a high of 163.90, but failed to sustain gains, encountering resistance just shy of 164.00. The pair is now consolidating below 163.50, with intraday support seen near 163.00 and a more critical base at 162.65.

Should the Euro manage to defend this support zone and regain upside momentum, a bullish breakout toward 164.20 could be in play, with a potential retest of the key 164.90 resistance zone. However, failure to hold above 162.65 could signal a shift in short-term sentiment and expose the pair to deeper corrections.

Momentum indicators remain mixed, suggesting that while the broader trend remains bullish due to monetary policy divergence, the pair may continue to trade sideways in the near term as markets await policy clarity.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 163.60

STOP LOSS: 162.50

TAKE PROFIT: 164.90

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Economic

Summary:

WTI crude oil prices are hovering around $60.00 per barrel, with easing trade tensions providing an upside potential.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

60.857

Entry Price

70.540

56.700

61.281 +0.102 +0.17%

176.6

Pips

Profit

56.700

62.623

Exit Price

60.857

Entry Price

70.540

Fundamentals

The resurgence of optimism surrounding global trade negotiations has bolstered oil prices, which are on track for a weekly gain of over 3%. The recent announcement of a trade agreement between the U.S. and the UK, the first such deal with a major trading partner since the imposition of broad tariffs by the Trump administration, has significantly eased trade tensions.

This development has not only enhanced investors' confidence but also provided a robust tailwind for crude oil prices.

Furthermore, China and the U.S., after a prolonged stalemate in the trade war, are set to commence trade negotiations in Switzerland this weekend. The primary objective of these talks is to reach a consensus on reducing the currently excessive tariffs, which have effectively imposed a de facto trade embargo on most goods. Given the increasing economic pressure on both sides, we anticipate that an agreement to lower tariffs to a more reasonable range will be reached in the near term.

Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil prices continued to climb on Friday, trading near $60.80 per barrel, following a nearly 4% increase in the previous trading session. The easing of trade tensions among major oil-consuming countries and the announcement of a "breakthrough" trade agreement between the UK and the U.S. have been the primary catalysts for the recent price surge.

Technically, WTI crude oil prices have broken through the descending triangle resistance that has been constraining their movement since early April. Currently, the commodity is trading above $60.04 per barrel, showing a bullish momentum after rebounding from recent lows. Meanwhile, the formation of a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern on the one-hour time frame further confirms that an upward trend may be taking shape.

From a moving average perspective, the MA100 has crossed below the MA200, which typically signals a bearish crossover. However, the current price is approaching a dynamic turning point of the MA100, and a breakout to the upside could be an early bullish signal.

The stochastic oscillator is approaching the overbought area, indicating that bullish momentum is strengthening. The indicator has been on an upward trajectory since early May, confirming the recent upward trend in prices. However, as it nears the 80 level, it may signal that the market's upward momentum could weaken, and traders should remain cautious.

The relative strength index (RSI) is also on an upward trend and still has room to rise before reaching the overbought area, indicating that the upward momentum may continue in the short term. The RSI is currently hovering around 50, indicating a balance between buying and selling pressures.

If crude oil prices successfully break through and hold above the top of the descending triangle, we may see oil prices rise towards the resistance level of $64.00 per barrel. Conversely, if the breakout fails, it could trigger a pullback to test the support level of $55.27 per barrel.

Despite OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production by 411,000 b/d in June, investors should still keep a close eye on geopolitical and trade dynamics, as positive news could revitalize the commodity's stronger demand outlook.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 60.80

Target Price: 70.54

Stop Loss: 56.70

Valid Until: May 24, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 59.83/57.15/56.19

Resistance: 61.83/63.47/64.71

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Forex

Summary:

Although the UK and the US reached a trade agreement yesterday, it came at the cost of unilateral concessions by the UK.

SELL GBPUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.32570

Entry Price

1.27600

1.34500

1.32981 +0.00006 +0.00%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.27600

Exit Price

1.32570

Entry Price

1.34500

Fundamental

Yesterday, the UK and the US reached a trade agreement, but it was a unilateral concession by the UK.

The newly signed UK-US trade agreement, while superficially easing tariff tensions, contains hidden risks for the pound (GBP). The UK agreed to slash tariffs on US agricultural imports from 5.1% to 1.8%, while the US will only apply a 10% tariff to the first 100,000 UK car exports (maintaining 25% beyond this quota) and eliminate steel/aluminum tariffs. Though this temporarily eases export pressures, the agreement fails to address tariff barriers on UK core industries. Additionally, the UK's commitment to purchase $10 billion worth of Boeing aircraft exacerbates trade deficit risks. Threats of future US tariffs on UK pharmaceuticals further dampen market sentiment.

Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) cut rates by 25bps to 4.25% yesterday—its fourth easing since August 2024. While the BoE emphasized a "gradual and prudent" approach, markets now price in 100bps of cumulative cuts in 2024 (potentially lowering rates to 3.5%). Contrasting this, the Fed's hawkish stance (with 10-year Treasury yields holding at 4.274%) widens the interest rate differential, driving arbitrage flows into the USD and amplifying GBP depreciation pressures.

Technical Analysis

Neckline Breach Signals Potential Downside_1

Based on the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD has formed a head-and-shoulders pattern, with a confirmed breach of the neckline at 1.3250, signaling activated downside potential.

Current price action shows GBPUSD rebounding from support at the 144-period moving average (MA144) to test the validity of the pattern. A weakening signal near 1.3250 (the neckline-turned-resistance) would confirm the bearish setup, opening the door for further declines. Even if prices rebound above the neckline but stall below the left shoulder at 1.3423, the bearish outlook remains intact.

Selling at highs is suggested.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3260

Target price: 1.2760

Stop loss: 1.3450

Valid Until: May 23, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 1.3211/1.2708

Resistance: 1.3402/1.3443

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

A day after the Fed decided to hold interest rates steady, the Bank of England (BOE) cut its benchmark rate, highlighting a growing divergence between the Fed and other global central banks in their responses to economic challenges, including those posed by Trump's tariffs.

BUY GBPJPY

EXP

PENDING

192.000

Entry Price

196.600

189.800

193.461 -0.260 -0.13%

Pips

PENDING

189.800

Exit Price

192.000

Entry Price

196.600

Fundamentals

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted 5-4 to reduce the base rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%, in line with market expectations. However, the decision revealed a rare three-way split among policymakers.

Five members supported the 25 basis point cut, while Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor voted for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction. Conversely, Catherine L. Mann and Huw Pill argued for maintaining the rate at 4.5%.

In an accompanying statement, the Bank reiterated that a "gradual and careful approach" to unwinding monetary tightening remains appropriate.

While acknowledging progress on disinflation, the MPC emphasized the need to keep policy "restrictive for as long as necessary" to ensure that inflation sustainably returns to the 2% target.

The Bank's latest Monetary Policy Report forecasts that CPI inflation will rise to 3.5% in the third quarter of 2025 before falling back to 2% in the medium term.

However, policymakers outlined two alternative scenarios fraught with risks. The first scenario envisions a drop in demand, assuming heightened uncertainty suppresses domestic spending and inflationary pressures dissipate more quickly. In this case, the economy would face a larger output gap, with inflation 0.3% lower than the baseline over three years.

Conversely, the second scenario projects persistently higher inflation, driven by second-round effects on wages and prices from recent increases in headline inflation, compounded by weak productivity growth. In this scenario, while inflation would have a smaller impact on economic growth, it would remain 0.4% above the baseline throughout the forecast period.

Technical Analysis

On Thursday, the GBPJPY edged higher, trading around 192.77, with bulls maintaining control. The pair continues to find support from a series of ascending short-term moving averages, which further reinforces its overall bullish structure. However, mixed signals from some momentum indicators may limit its short-term upside potential.

From a technical perspective, as long as the support level at 189.97 holds, GBPJPY is expected to continue its upward trend. A breakout above 193.72 would extend the rally that began at 184.35, targeting the resistance level at 195.95.

Conversely, a breakdown below the 189.97 support level would signal a shift towards bearish sentiment, potentially leading to further declines.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 192.00

Target Price: 196.60

Stop Loss: 189.80

Valid Until: May 23, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 191.78/190.28/189.34

Resistance: 193.72/195.41/196.46

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

Price has already breached the 100-period MA to the downside, putting the 200-period MA in focus as the next critical support zone.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.32606

Entry Price

1.30000

1.33900

1.32981 +0.00006 +0.00%

89.1

Pips

Profit

1.30000

1.31715

Exit Price

1.32606

Entry Price

1.33900

U.S. President Donald Trump made a series of remarks on Thursday, emphasizing what he described as a significant breakthrough in trade relations with the United Kingdom. He also hinted that tariffs on Chinese goods could be lowered ahead of this weekend’s high-level trade talks between Washington and Beijing. At the same time, Trump reignited his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, underscoring the ongoing tension between the White House and the central bank over the direction of monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve, for its part, held steady on Wednesday, keeping interest rates unchanged for a third straight meeting. Despite persistent calls from President Trump for further rate cuts, the central bank chose to stay the course, pointing instead to rising economic uncertainty as a reason for maintaining a cautious stance.

During his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the central bank would proceed carefully in the coming months. “There is no need to move hastily,” Powell said, stressing that policymakers will evaluate how U.S. tariffs are affecting inflation, labor markets, and broader economic dynamics, particularly as international trade negotiations continue to evolve.

“We cannot predict how this situation will develop,” Powell added. Still, he acknowledged that risks tied to the global trade environment remain elevated. “My sense is that uncertainty surrounding the economic trajectory is unusually high,” he remarked, reaffirming the Fed’s commitment to a data-dependent, patient approach.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to maintain the benchmark federal funds rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range—levels last reached in late 2024 following a full percentage point cut implemented during the prior autumn. In its official statement, the Fed acknowledged that uncertainty had “increased further,” although it also highlighted that economic growth remains “solid,” despite recent noise in export-related data from the early months of 2025.

Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, the Bank of England (BoE) resumed its path of monetary easing at its latest policy meeting. In response to what it described as “heightened unpredictability in the global economic environment,” largely stemming from the U.S. administration’s trade strategies, the BoE lowered its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%.

The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) stated that it is pursuing a forward-looking and medium-term strategy to guide policy in line with its inflation mandate. The May 7 meeting ended with a narrow 5–4 vote in favor of the cut. Notably, two members (Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor) favored a more aggressive 50-basis-point reduction, while two others (Catherine L. Mann and Huw Pill) voted to hold rates steady at 4.50%.

On the inflation front, the BoE projected a temporary rise to 3.5% in Q3, driven by surging energy prices, before easing back down later in the year. However, its GDP outlook took a hit, with expectations of a sharp slowdown to just 0.1% growth in Q2 and downside risks remaining elevated. GBPUSD Faces Pressure as USD Strength Broadens Across Markets_1

GBPUSD Faces Pressure as USD Strength Broadens Across Markets_1

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD marked a local top around 1.3445 on April 28, but since then, the pair has come under sustained bearish pressure. Price action has carved out a near-term support level at 1.3267 and has failed to print a new higher high—an early signal that the recent bullish structure could be weakening.

Should the pair break below current support, the next potential target lies near 1.2990, aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, which could serve as a key magnet for sellers.

The 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart are positioned at 1.3318 and 1.3441, respectively. Price has already breached the 100-period MA to the downside, putting the 200-period MA in focus as the next critical support zone. A clean break below both averages could accelerate bearish momentum toward the Fibonacci level.

On the flip side, if GBPUSD were to stage a recovery and break back above the descending trendline, this would invalidate the current bearish setup and potentially reignite bullish momentum.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3262

Target price: 1.3000

Stop loss: 1.3390

Validity: May 20, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

On Wednesday, the Ethereum network witnessed a stable price appreciation following the deployment of the Pectra upgrade on its mainnet. Despite the introduction of several new functionalities, the upgrade did not precipitate significant market volatility.

BUY ETH-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

1994.27

Entry Price

2251.00

1725.00

2632.11 +68.11 +2.66%

2567.3

Pips

Profit

1725.00

2252.99

Exit Price

1994.27

Entry Price

2251.00

Fundamentals

As the preeminent smart contract platform, Ethereum's transaction metrics serve as a barometer for the health of its ecosystem and user engagement levels. Systematic analysis of on-chain data is instrumental in identifying network bottlenecks and informing optimization strategies for developers, investors, and researchers.

As of May 7, 2025, Ethereum's daily transaction volume reached 1.308 million, representing a 2.31% increase from the previous day's 1.279 million transactions. On a YoY basis, this marks a 6.20% growth compared to the same period last year (1.232 million), indicating a steady rise in network utilization.

A review of the Q1 2025 data reveals that the average daily transaction volume oscillated between 1.25 million and 1.35 million, with a peak of 1.342 million on April 25 and a trough of 1.011 million on April 20.

Etherscan data indicates that 168,957 new addresses were created on May 7, 2025, while the number of daily active addresses continues to climb. This trend underscores the influx of new users and decentralized application (DApp) participants into the Ethereum ecosystem.

A recent report from Gate Research highlights a 34.5% MoM increase in the average daily trading volume of ETH options. This surge reflects the utilization of options by large traders for risk hedging and strategic arbitrage, thereby accentuating the secondary market's role in driving underlying transaction activity.

A comprehensive analysis of Ethereum's Q1 2025 transaction data reveals a robust and expanding network.

The concurrent rise in daily transaction volumes and active address counts, coupled with relatively low gas fees facilitated by Layer 2 scaling solutions, underscores the network's overall health. The symbiotic relationship between on-chain innovations (such as DeFi and NFTs) and the secondary market (including options and ETFs) is a key driver of this growth. Looking forward, the implementation of upgrades like EIP-4844 and the maturation of the Layer 2 ecosystem are expected to further enhance Ethereum's performance and user experience.

Breaking Consolidation with Rising Volume_1

Technical Analysis

In the current trading week, two key technical indicators suggest that Ethereum's price is in a consolidation phase. The first signal is the test of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) resistance level, which typically indicates a period of price stabilization. The second signal is a robust rebound following the consolidation, which often serves as a confirmation of short-term price resilience.

Should Ethereum's price achieve an upward breakout, it is poised to challenge the next supply zone at approximately $2,003. This breakout would likely set the stage for a continued upward trend, with an initial target price above $2,104. Following this move, market sentiment is expected to stabilize into a neutral phase. In such a scenario, we project that the price will continue to appreciate, with a medium-term target exceeding the $2,665 resistance level.

Conversely, if Ethereum's price were to breach the critical support level of $1,732 and close below it, this would signal a resumption of the downward trend, potentially triggering further sell-offs.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1921

Target Price: 2251

Stop Loss: 1725

Valid Until: May 23, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 1872/1785/1725

Resistance: 2003/2039/2102

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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