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Oil Prices Set to Rise as Middle East Tensions Escalate
Summary:
Iran announced its intention to respond to recent Israeli attacks over the weekend, reigniting Middle East tensions. WTI oil prices opened with a gap up and have maintained an upward trend.
CLOSED
70.498
Entry Price
74.700
TP
68.850
SL
68.369 -0.456 -0.66%
107.7
Pips
Profit
68.850
SL
71.575
Exit Price
70.498
Entry Price
74.700
TP
Fundamentals
WTI crude opened at $70.45 on Monday, gapping up by over $1 from last week's close. We believe two key factors are driving this gap up:
Iran's Potential Retaliation Against Israel:
On November 2, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has warned Israel and the US of "a crushing response" for actions against Iran and its allies. Following this, the Iranian president on November 3 reiterated that any infringement on Iran's sovereignty and security would not go unanswered, signaling that Israel could face repercussions for any missteps. These statements have intensified Middle East tensions, which would potentially drive oil prices higher.
OPEC's Extension of Voluntary Production Cuts:
OPEC announced on November 3 that it would extend its daily production cut of 2.2 million barrels, initially set to expire at the end of November, until the end of December. This move reduces the expected oil supply in the market and will likely to support oil prices in the short term.
Overall, the escalation in Middle East tensions, coupled with OPEC's extension of production cuts, could drive oil prices higher in the near term.
Technical Analysis
WTI oil prices benefitted from Middle East tensions, opening with a gap up and currently maintaining an upward trend. As of today's European trading session, prices are trading around $70.60.
In the short term, market sentiment appears to be driving oil prices beyond technical indicators, with geopolitical news taking the lead. Prices could potentially approach the $80.00 level if Iran continues to issue strong rhetoric regarding retaliation against Israel. However, if Iran chooses to compromise on its warnings against the US and opts for a more subdued approach to retaliating against Israel, oil prices might drop.
A strategy of buying the dips could be effective in the near term, with an eye on potential retracement to fill the gap between $69.00 and $70.10. It's advisable to place stop-loss orders around $68.85 to manage risk.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 70.50
Target Price: 74.70
Stop Loss: 68.85
Valid Until: Nov 18, 2024 15:00:00
Support: 70.00, 69.10, 68.06
Resistance: 71.15, 72.16, 74.82
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