NG: The Demand for the Heating Season Will Increase, and Try to Go Long at Lows

Summary:

As the northern hemisphere stabilizes and then declines further, the demand for natural gas in winter is expected to increase, which will drive the price in the US up.

BUY NAT.GAS

Close Time

CLOSED

6.960

Entry Price

8.000

5.800

2.945 +0.029 +0.99%

53.4

Pips

Profit

5.800

7.494

Exit Price

6.960

Entry Price

8.000

Fundamentals

In the background of the Russian-Ukrainian war and sanctions of European and America against Russia, energy supply concerns have been intensified this year, and European natural gas prices have soared as well. Given the current state of the world, European countries are scrambling to search for alternative natural gas supplies, and American natural gas is one of the crucial alternatives.

Stocks of US natural gases have once declined significantly, because of the large increase in US natural gas exports to Europe. Prices of natural gas in the United States soared as a result, and even in the opposite direction of the price of natural gas in Europe. Conversely, if European demand for natural gas declines or U.S. gas exports moderate, U.S. domestic gas supplies will be more abundant, which in turn will lead to lower U.S. natural gas prices.

In June 2022, an explosion at the Freeport LNG facility, a major exporter of natural gas from the United States, prevented the export to Europe, causing a large amount of natural gas stranded in the United States, which once triggered a sharp drop in US natural gas prices. The survey shows that Europe's natural gas reserves have exceeded 90%, which can fully meet the demand in winter. That is why natural gas prices in Europe and the United States have fallen collectively recently.

However, as temperatures in the northern hemisphere drop further, the global natural gas market is gradually transitioning to winter conditions, and regional markets in Europe, East Asia, and especially the United States are gradually strengthening. Weather forecasts imply that temperatures in most parts of the United States will fall at the end of November, which may stimulate heating demand and drive US natural gas prices up in the short term.

NG: The Demand for the Heating Season Will Increase, and Try to Go Long at Lows_1

Technical Analysis

Trading at the 4-hour chart, the trend of NG has been quite fluctuating recently, but the support below is obvious, the low point keeps on rising, and attempts to go upward in oscillation. If the upper resistance is breached at 7.25, the bullish signal will strengthen further. At present, NG encounters a resistance pullback, and it is necessary to wait patiently for the opportunity to go long after full adjustment or breakdown.

Operationally, it is recommended to go long lightly on the price pullback to around 6.80, with the target set at the upper-pressure level of around 8.0 and the stop loss below 6.0.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 6.80

Target Price: 8.00

Stop Loss: 5.80

Support: 6.80/6.00

Resistance: 8.00/7.25

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

USDCAD Expected to Get Triple Support to 1.35814 on Upside

Jason

Forex

Summary:

Data in Canada retail sales, U.S. API inventory data, and recent hawkishness from Fed officials have cooled market expectations for a slowdown in Fed rate hikes. The continued upside of the dollar is likely to keep the USDCAD on the rise.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.33921

Entry Price

1.34977

1.33335

1.35797 -0.00335 -0.24%

51.2

Pips

Loss

1.33335

1.33409

Exit Price

1.33921

Entry Price

1.34977

Fundamentals

As the dollar strengthened for three consecutive sessions, the USDCAD extended its gains on Monday as a result. Although the gain was only 0.5%, the U.S. session was on a roller coaster ride, with a sharp rise of nearly 80 points in the short term, followed by a quick give-back of gains. This is because the Wall Street Journal posted that Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries will hold discussions on increasing production by 500,000 barrels per day at the OPEC+ meeting on Dec. 4.

But then, the Saudi state news agency SPA reported that Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has denied the rumors. Prince Abdulaziz said that the previous decision to cut production by 2 million barrels per day will continue until the end of 2023; Saudi Arabia stands ready to intervene if further measures to reduce production are necessary to restore the balance between supply and demand. And it was noted that OPEC+ is known not to discuss any decisions before the meeting.

Meanwhile, the UAE's Minister of Energy and Infrastructure also denied that his country is engaging in any discussions with other OPEC+ members to change the agreement that remains in effect until the end of 2023.

Oil prices first plunged on news of an increase in production and then rebounded on Saudi Arabia's denial. The USDCAD has also been on a roller coaster ride as a result.

The Canada retail sales data for September will be released during the day. The data is now widely expected to be weak by the market, which may also be interpreted by the market as a slowdown in Canada's economy, monetary policy is gradually taking effect, and the Bank of Canada can continue to maintain a slower pace of interest rate hikes. Coupled with the recent hawkishness of Fed officials that has cooled market expectations for a slowdown in Fed rate hikes, the dollar's successive upside, and market expectations for the upcoming US API crude oil inventory data (which is expected to increase), may keep the USDCAD on the rise.

Technical Analysis

In the 4H chart, USDCAD's high yesterday was blocked by the bottom of the oscillation range at 1.34977 - 1.38394. The key resistance above is the 50.0% Fibonacci Retracement (1.35814), and if it breaks through this line, the currency pair is expected to hit the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement (1.38394), which is also the top of the oscillation range. Strong support lies in the bottom of the descending channel in the short term, with the key support being the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement (1.33197). The long/short watershed is 1.29973, and a break below this line would mean that the USDCAD will return to a downward trend. As for the indicators, Stoch is close to the oversold zone and shows signs of forming a golden cross; DMI and Ichimoku indicate that the USDCAD is in a downtrend in the short term and will start to rise after a slight fall.

USDCAD: USDCAD Expected to Get Triple Support to 1.35814 on Upside_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 1.33921

Target price: 1.34977

Stop loss: 1.33335

Support: 1.33921/1.33549/1.33197

Resistance: 1.34247/1.34605/1.34977

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Retracement Is Sufficient, Keep an Eye on Buying Opportunities

King Ten

Commodity

Summary:

Precious metals were oscillating yesterday as US treasury bond rates fell, with real rates partially retracing, inflation expectations partially rising, and the USDX oscillating. Recently, precious metals' price has consolidated, and silver prices have fallen to the price which is suitable to build positions after a retracement.

BUY XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

21.000

Entry Price

22.500

19.500

24.656 +0.030 +0.12%

41.7

Pips

Profit

19.500

21.417

Exit Price

21.000

Entry Price

22.500

Fundamentals

US treasury bond rates fell, with real interest rates partially retracing, inflation expectations partially rising, and the USDX oscillating. Currently, the biggest uncertainty in the market lies in the economic forecast for the December 13th and 14th meetings, which will be related to whether to raise the federal funds rate ceiling in 2023. Yesterday, the San Francisco Fed Daly rebuilt the maze, arguing that the current market is trading the expected federal funds rate to have reached 6%, and again proposed that the high point of the federal funds rate next year could be 5.25%.

In general, the U.S. economy next year will only be in the "deepening stagflation" or "into recession conversion of loose monetary policy". Either of both is beneficial to precious metals. For silver, the LBMA, the main source of inventory for global silver trading and ETF trading, has a current inventory of 26,500 tons, significantly lower than the 35,666 tons before the pandemic, while the iShare position of the world's major silver ETF is currently around 15,000 tons, still much higher than the 11,000 tons position before the pandemic. It makes silver deliverable inventory even less than the apparent inventory, and thus silver is stronger than gold. Therefore, long the silver and short the gold will be tactical.

Technical Analysis

Referring to the daily chart, silver has broken away from the double top resistance of August and October. It will become the support at present, while the price is testing the support of the 20-day moving average currently.

XAGUSD: Retracement Is Sufficient, Keep an Eye on Buying Opportunities_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 21.000

Target price: 22.500

Stop loss: 19.500

Support: 19.965/17.570

Resistance: 22.260/25.000

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Alert to Increasing Downside Risks of the Dollar

Jason

Summary:

Speeches of Daly and Mester had one thing in common. That is, they are not as harsh as the officials who spoke the other day in suppressing market expectations of slowing rate hikes. This may mean the end of the Fed's warning. A confrontation between the market and the Fed is formed currently. The Fed adheres to its hawkish rhetoric, but options traders are betting that such a tone may not last.

BUY USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

107.300

Entry Price

108.450

106.611

103.148 -0.104 -0.10%

68.9

Pips

Loss

106.611

106.580

Exit Price

107.300

Entry Price

108.450

Fundamentals

The dollar extended its rally on Monday, rising 0.75%, a third straight session of gains, and recovering nearly half of the losses that it recorded since the October CPI. This is mainly a benefit of the Fed's constant suppression of overheated market expectations. After opening slightly lower during the day, the US dollar has almost recovered its losses during the European session, currently slightly down 0.06%

In addition, two more Fed officials spoke yesterday:

"We want to go far enough that we get the job done. That's the resolute part. But not so far that we overdo it. And that's the mindful part." San Francisco Fed President Mary C. Daly said on Monday. She will need to see upcoming data before deciding how big a rate hike to support at the next meeting.

Loretta Mester, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, said that although interest rate hikes will continue, the Federal Reserve can downshift to smaller interest rate hike increments from 75bps at the next meeting.

Speeches of Daly and Mester had one thing in common. That is, they are not as harsh as the officials who spoke the other day in suppressing market expectations of moderating rate hikes. If the official's speech the other day was a "warning", then it was just a "tell" this time. This may mean the end of the Fed's "warning". If this is the case, then it is necessary to be aware that the current market expectations will resurge with simulations of some data or events, after remaining calm temporarily in the next few trading days.

Currently, the Fed adheres to its hawkish rhetoric, but options traders are betting that such a tone may not last.

Technical Analysis

Trading at the 4-hour chart, the dollar is still in a state of fluctuating to the upside after breaking through the 107.291-106.824 oscillation range. It is temporarily blocked at 107.735, with strong upper resistance at 108.453, which is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, and the downtrend line is also around here. Stabilizing above this line means that the dollar will temporarily pause its downward trend. Strong support in the short term is at the top of the oscillation range, and if it drops below this line, a risk of further decline exists. As for indicators, the twin tunnels of EMAs still indicate a general decline in the dollar. The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo and DMI suggest that the dollar will experience a new decline in the short term. For now, it is still recommended to wait for the dollar to fall slightly and then go long.

USDX: Alert to Increasing Downside Risks of the Dollar_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 107.30

Target Price: 108.45

Stop Loss: 106.611

Support: 107.291/106.824/106.034

Resistance: 107.735/108.453

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

To Keep or Stop Falling after Retesting the Low?

Damon

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

BTC did rebound effectively after retesting 15500, so the short-term double-bottom pattern will fail. It will most likely dip to a new low in the near term.

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

16000.0

Entry Price

12000.0

17000.0

37185.5 +436.6 +1.18%

396.5

Pips

Loss

12000.0

16396.5

Exit Price

16000.0

Entry Price

17000.0

Hot News

1. Bloomberg: Yu-Chen Sun spends about $1 billion to acquire about 60% shareholding of China's Huobi Group through About Capital.

2. U.S. lawmakers have asked Fidelity Investments to abandon granting retirement plan participants exposure to Bitcoin.

3. U.S. Senate will hold an FTX hearing in December.

Sentiment

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 22, representing extreme fear. The index was 21 yesterday and 24 the day before yesterday. The overall market sentiment is still weak and trading sentiment remains low.

Technical Analysis

BTC did rebound effectively after retesting 15500, so the short-term double-bottom pattern will fail. It will most likely dip to a new low, maybe near 12000, in the near term. The short-term resistance is at 16500 and 18000. BTC is swinging downward in the small time frame, while in the daily chart, it is at a key level. Breaking below that level, the price will dip to a new low. There is not much rising space for a rebound in the short term, at most a weak retracement in fluctuations. So it's recommended to go short at highs.

BTC 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

BTC-USDT: To Keep or Stop Falling after Retesting the Low? _1

BTC Daily Candlestick Chart

BTC-USDT: To Keep or Stop Falling after Retesting the Low? _2

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 16000

Target price: 12000

Stop loss: 17000

Support: 15500

Resistance: 16500, 18000

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Market Turns Bearish with Head and Shoulders Top at Highs

Winkelmann

Forex

Summary:

The recent weakness of the US dollar (USD) boosted the non-US currency, the Canadian dollar (CAD). In technical terms, USDCAD has formed a head and shoulders top. Then, the trend can be reversed, and it is recommended to continue to go short when the rally is blocked.

SELL USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.35300

Entry Price

1.32400

1.38700

1.35797 -0.00335 -0.24%

107.2

Pips

Profit

1.32400

1.34228

Exit Price

1.35300

Entry Price

1.38700

Fundamentals

Recently, the pandemic has been repeated in Asia. Then, market fears that China can expand its pandemic prevention restrictions heightened concerns about the outlook for a global recession. The performance of commodity currencies was poor, and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) continued to support the USD, with the USDCAD extending its rally.

However, the earlier weaker-than-expected US inflation data raised hopes in the market that the Fed would slow the pace of interest rate hikes. The USD's recent ascending momentum has come to an abrupt halt, and the signs of a turnaround are becoming increasingly apparent. This is undoubtedly a major bullishness for non-US currencies, which have been sluggish for a whole year.

In addition, as Saudi Arabia denied that it was discussing an increase in production, OPEC+ will maintain its current plan to cut production until the end of 2023, with further cuts if necessary. This can lead to continued tightness of supply in the oil market, boosting the price of crude oil to Canada's main export, while the USDCAD is indirectly under pressure.

Technical Analysis

USDCAD: Market Turns Bearish with Head and Shoulders Top at Highs_1

The daily chart shows that USDCAD has been consolidating at highs for nearly two months and has formed a "head and shoulders top" type of reversal trend. After the price broke below the support of the neckline around 1.3530, the topping signal was further strengthened. The indicator RSI has been pulling back from the overbought territory. Meanwhile, the exchange rate is extending its rally, and there is still some room for the upside. However, further gains are only possible if the price breaks out and stabilizes above 1.3530; otherwise, a return to the descending trend is possible.

It is recommended to go short at highs. You can go short with small positions when the price rallies to around 1.3530. The target is set near the key support level at 1.3240, with a stop-loss above 1.3850.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1.3530

Target price: 1.3240

Stop loss: 1.3870

Support: 1.3250/1.3400

Resistance: 1.3850/1.3700

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Production Increase Denied, Still to Long Oil at Lows

King Ten

Commodity

Summary:

With the Saudi Arabian energy minister denying the information of production increase spread, the logic of the recent oil price streak to the downside may gradually withdraw, and it is still advisable to go long at lows in the oil market.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

77.500

Entry Price

83.300

74.100

75.754 +0.658 +0.87%

65.5

Pips

Profit

74.100

78.155

Exit Price

77.500

Entry Price

83.300

Fundamentals

The WTI crude oil futures fell in price on Nov. 21, mainly on rumors that OPEC+ was discussing an increase in production. After The Wall Street Journal reported that the Dec. 4 OPEC+ meeting would consider increasing oil production by as much as 500,000 barrels a day, both the two indicator contracts earlier plunged more than $5 a barrel, hitting 10-month lows. But oil prices have since recovered lost ground as Saudi Arabia indicated that OPEC+ is sticking to production cuts and may take further steps to balance the market in the light of falling oil prices, denying reports that it is considering raising output, according to state news agency SPA.

With the Saudi Arabian energy minister denying the information of production increase spread by the outside world, the logic of the recent oil price streak to the downside may gradually withdraw. Market focus returns to this Wednesday's G7 announcement of energy price caps on Russia. Attention needs to be paid to the EU's possible declaration this Wednesday on the export ceiling price for Russian oil. If prices remain at Russian exports and profitable levels, then the current oil price is limited above; if the target is too low, it will stimulate Russia to cut production. Western restrictions on Russian oil, to some extent, will reduce Russia's oil revenues, and this move will also bring more uncertainty to the oil market.

After experiencing two waves of sharp decline, both bulls of crude oil and the chemical system basically finished. The bears should take profit after the selling in the future. If there is no more bearish news, a wave of rallies may come to the market in the following sessions.

Technical Analysis

From the 1H chart, a bull candle reverses the previous weak trend and breaks the 20-day SMA that has been weighing on for a week. The bullish signal is strong, and as the current price is near the low since September and near the low since the beginning of the year, the support effect still exists.

WTI: Production Increase Denied, Still to Long Oil at Lows_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 77.500

Target price: 83.300

Stop loss: 74.100

Support: 76.300/74.200

Resistance: 83.200/89.300

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Winkelmann

Analyst

7 years of stock market, foreign exchange, precious metal and other trading and analysis experience, based on fundamental, technical support, biased towards the top-down transaction logic, focusing on macro cycle and risk control, multi-purpose supply and demand theoretical prediction price Changes, balances the impact of transactions, chips distribution and market sentiment, and steady.

Ranking

Articles

352

Win Rate

0.00%

P/L Ratio

1.32

Focus on

XAUUSD, BRENT, USDJPY

Related Analysis

Declining Highs and Short Trend in Establishment

PROFIT +38.2 Pips

Higher Downside Risk in Medium to Long Term, Continue Shorting after Rally

EXPIRED

The Dollar's Rally Is Limited, and the Pound May Return to Gains

LOSS -140.0 Pips

Dollar Downside Momentum Limited, Beware of Euro Bulls Taking Profits on Retracement

LOSS -130.0 Pips

BTCUSDT: Winter Has Come to the Cryptocurrency Industry, and Bitcoin Will Continue to Fall

LOSS -1471.1 Pips

Home News AI Signals Analysis Columns 7x24 Economic Calendar Quotes Data Warehouse Pro Video User Agreement Privacy Policy About Us

Risk Disclosure

The risk of loss in trading financial assets such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs or crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

No consideration to invest should be made without thoroughly conduct your own due diligence, or consult with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you, since we have not known your financial condition and investment needs. It is possible that our financial information might have latency or contains inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your transactions and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital lost.

Without getting the permission from the website, you are not allow to copy the website graphics, texts, or trade marks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belongs to its providers and exchange merchants.

Palestinian-Israeli conflict

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Tensions in Northern Myanmar

Daily News

FastBull Featured

Devin

Mohammad Omar

Jan Aldrin Laruscain

Recent Searches

Trending Searches

News

Analysis

7x24

Quotes

Economic Calendar

Video

Data

Share to get 1-year PRO for free

Share the link to get membership

Scan QR code with mobile phone

Upgrade to FastBull Pro

NG: The Demand for the Heating Season Will Increase, and Try to Go Long at Lows

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

USDCAD Expected to Get Triple Support to 1.35814 on Upside

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Retracement Is Sufficient, Keep an Eye on Buying Opportunities

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Alert to Increasing Downside Risks of the Dollar

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

To Keep or Stop Falling after Retesting the Low?

Hot News

Sentiment

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Market Turns Bearish with Head and Shoulders Top at Highs

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Production Increase Denied, Still to Long Oil at Lows

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure