Momentum-Structure Divergence, Trade Structure-Driven

Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

Ukraine strikes Russia's key export hub, sparking crude-supply fears.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

60.212

Entry Price

64.360

57.300

59.809 +0.426 +0.72%

291.2

Pips

Loss

57.300

57.294

Exit Price

60.212

Entry Price

64.360

Fundamentals

On Friday, oil prices gained nearly 1% in early trading after reports that Ukrainian drones had struck a key Russian export hub, reviving supply-risk concerns.

Nevertheless, WTI crude posted a weekly loss and is down around 15% year-to-date as consensus builds for an oversupplied market.

Last week, the rise in U.S. crude inventories underscored weakening demand in the world's largest consumer. Meanwhile, the IEA revised this year's projected surplus higher. The OPEC estimates that supply exceeded demand in Q3.

Near-term WTI direction will hinge on incoming inventory statistics and geopolitical developments in producing regions. Shifts in the global demand outlook or U.S.-dollar strength—driven by trade headlines or Fed rate expectations—will also shape price action.

Momentum-Structure Divergence, Trade Structure-Driven_1

Technical Analysis

OWTI crude oil remains under sustained selling pressure, with the downtrend-channel resistance capping any attempted rallies. After failing to break above the upper bound of the channel, Fibonacci-expansion projections now point to a deeper retracement.

Oil is currently changing hands around $59.80/bbl, a level that coincides with the 50% Fibonacci-extension handle. Having been rejected at the channel resistance near $60.70/bbl, the market appears to be shifting its focus toward further downside in the sessions ahead.

The Fibonacci extension tool highlights potential downside targets that sellers may be aiming for. The 61.8% extension level is located at $58.69, while the 76.4% extension level sits at $58.22. Should the decline persist, WTI crude could slide toward the 100% Fibonacci extension at $57.45—a key area of interest and the next probable support zone.

In terms of moving averages, the SMA100 is positioned below the SMA200, confirming that the downside remains the path of least resistance and the prevailing downtrend is more likely to persist. Price currently trades beneath both dynamic levels, implying they may act as resistance on any attempted rebound.

The Stochastic Oscillator, having retreated from overbought territory, is now hovering near the midpoint of its range, suggesting scope for bullish momentum to rebuild. With limited room before the indicator would reach oversold levels, accumulation by buyers could be underway in the near term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutrally aligned. Although bulls retain control, no sign of exhaustion has yet emerged.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 59.67

Target Price: 64.36

Stop Loss: 57.30

Valid Until: December 2, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 59.48/59.13/58.64

Resistance Levels: 60.24/60.46/61.19

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

Gold’s decline from $4,381 marks Phase-1 correction. Phase-2 likely ended last week. Expect a retest of the DMA55 at $3,907, yet the broader bull structure remains intact. Near-term bounce targets $4,180.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4083.06

Entry Price

4180.00

4035.00

4197.91 -9.26 -0.22%

480.6

Pips

Loss

4035.00

4034.58

Exit Price

4083.06

Entry Price

4180.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices edged higher on Monday. After falling for two straight sessions as optimism over a Fed rate cut next month faded. The metal is now trading around $4,100, which have dropped more than 2% in the previous session when Fed officials showed little conviction about lowering borrowing costs.

The late-week decline extends the corrective structure that began after gold printed an all-time high in mid-October. The initial sell-off, the early-November bounce and the latest pullback together constitute a consolidation phase, indicating the market is still searching for direction following months of relentless strength.

Both fundamentals and technicals suggest this state of indecision will persist in the near term. The overarching uptrend remains intact, but without a clear catalyst price action is likely to stay choppy. Printing record highs is still embedded in the medium-term base case, yet the timeline skews toward early-2026 rather than the remainder of 2025.

Fundamentally, the loss of momentum in gold’s ascent began when China-U.S. trade tensions were dialled down under a one-year stand-still accord that blocks any further escalation of tariff and non-tariff measures. The agreement stripped out the risk premium that had been funnelling sizeable flows into precious metals. With geopolitical pressure now reduced, the market lacks the sense of urgency needed to extend the rally.

The recent sell-off has been driven primarily by a repricing of Fed expectations. With the market now assigning a negligible probability to a December rate cut, the near-term appeal of non-yielding assets has diminished. Nevertheless, the broader policy trajectory remains dovish. Once the current fog lifts, next year’s easing cycle should provide a backstop for gold.

The challenge is that macro visibility will not improve overnight. Although U.S. data releases resumed after last week’s government shutdown ended, neither the Fed nor investors will have a clean read on underlying conditions until the December publication schedule is fully restored. This keeps policymakers in a watchful stance and prevents asset managers from staking out directional positions.

Gold Steadies but Lacks Momentum, Awaiting Next Policy Cue_1

Technical Analysis

In From a technical perspective, gold’s decline from $4,381 to $3,886 completes the first leg of the corrective pattern that began at $3,267. The second leg likely terminated last week at $4,244. Downside follow-through is now expected toward the SMA55 (currently $3,907), where a relief bounce may emerge. A decisive break below that support, however, would open the 100% retracement of the $4,244.86–$3,886.41 range at $3,750, where the correction is anticipated to end.

Within the short-term structure, gold still has upward momentum, with a target of $4,180.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4065

Target Price: 4180

Stop Loss: 4035

Valid Until: December 2, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 4065/4049/4032

Resistance Levels: 4095/4110/4149

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices edged higher from intraday lows during the European session on Friday, but remained below the 4,200 mark. With no major economic data due, growing caution from Fed policymakers on further easing has led traders to scale back expectations for another rate cut in December.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4135.00

Entry Price

3863.00

4215.00

4197.91 -9.26 -0.22%

800.0

Pips

Loss

3863.00

4215.05

Exit Price

4135.00

Entry Price

4215.00

Fundamentals

Gold edged up Friday before a brief pullback, heading for a weekly gain. A softer USD underpinned the gold, but hawkish Fed pushback pared rate-cut bets for December and capped the advance.

Spot gold eased modestly in the European session. However, the price is set to close the week up over 4%, as markets are digesting the backlog of U.S. data released after the longest-ever government shutdown.

If agencies cannot clear the queue, October CPI and payrolls may never be published, leaving Q4 with fewer benchmark data than usual.

The rate outlook remains clouded, pricing only a 50% probability of a December cut. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari—who opposed the November reduction—said Thursday he is still undecided on the December policy meeting.

"Fragmentary evidence shows underlying activity is more resilient than I expected," he told Bloomberg, justifying the October pause. "Since then, the data have been little changed. I can make a case either for a cut or for holding. we'll see."

Kashkari's remarks place him among a growing chorus of FOMC voters who openly question—or outright oppose—another cut in December. Whether they can sway a majority remains uncertain, as several policymakers still see labour-market slack as the bigger risk.

US Data Outlook Clouded, Gold Rally Stalls, Bears Regain Control_1

Technical Analysis

In Friday's European session, gold hit a confluence of technical supply: the Oct 13/20 weekly open/close cluster and the down-trend line at 1,424. Bulls failed, triggering a sharp reversal that handed control to bears and shifts the bias from higher to lower.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4135

Target Price: 3863

Stop Loss: 4215

Valid Until: November 29, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 4134/4118/4097

Resistance Levels: 4171/4190/4212

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Forex

Technical Analysis

Summary:

Japan's PM Takaichi presses the BoJ to keep ultra-low rates to safeguard growth, while Governor Ueda cites robust consumption and tightening labor markets to warn that underlying inflation is on track to hit the 2% target—leaving the yen exposed and a near-term rate hike firmly on the table.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

154.733

Entry Price

158.800

151.000

155.345 +0.237 +0.15%

58.9

Pips

Profit

151.000

155.322

Exit Price

154.733

Entry Price

158.800

Fundamentals

Minutes of the October meeting reveal that, within the Policy Board, the case for a near-term hike is strengthening: a majority stressed the need to entrench sustained wage momentum. Eight of the thirteen Policy Board opinions explicitly called for an early rate increase or the prompt setting of conditions for one. Provided global growth and markets remain stable, the Bank could move as soon as next month or in January. However, the exact timing still hinges on whether stronger corporate earnings and management sentiment further bolster confidence that wage growth will persist.

While the Board concluded that an immediate move is not imperative, members warned against missing the opportune moment to raise the policy rate. Several noted that prerequisites for normalisation are largely in place, but flagged the need for additional evidence of underlying inflation's resilience. At the 30 October meeting the BoJ left the overnight call rate at 0.5%. Directors Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata dissented, favouring an immediate 25 bp hike to 0.75%. Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated afterward that the BoJ will keep scrutinising data to verify whether firms can maintain wage hikes even as the U.S. raises tariffs. Board member Junko Nakagawa cited still-fragile consumption and uncertainty over the U.S. outlook as key downside risks.

The minutes explicitly flag U.S. tariff adjustments and Japan's upcoming wage negotiation cycle as pivotal inputs for the next policy step.

Prime Minister Takaichi's dovish stance has materially diluted the authorities' resolve to counter yen weakness. Although Ministry of Finance officials continue to issue verbal warnings against excessive JPY selling, a bloc of fiscal-expansion, low-rate advisors inside the new cabinet argues that a softer yen cushions exports and offsets U.S. tariff shocks, blunting the market impact of official rhetoric.

Participants now assign a low probability to yen depreciation becoming a policy priority unless USDJPY breaks 155–160, the threshold at which escalation—from stronger jawboning to outright intervention—becomes plausible.

Comments by Satsuki Katayama that the negative spill-overs of yen weakness now outweigh the positives failed to lift the currency in the absence of a credible intervention threat.

Persistent intragovernment divergence on the desirability of a weak yen reinforces expectations that the BoJ will slow the pace of rate normalization.

With the Takaichi administration pushing an expansionary agenda, the market prices only a gradual further hike trajectory.

If the BoJ opts for an extended pause, FX intervention would be the lone remaining line of defense. However, the U.S. opposition and the negative real-rate backdrop mean any yen-buying operation risks burning reserves with limited lasting effect.

With key U.S. data releases delayed by the government shutdown, Fed officials have stepped up their messaging. Three regional Fed presidents reiterated inflation concerns, while the Board's most dovish member argued that the available data justify another rate cut.

Amid the widening policy split, market pricing has shifted sharply. By Friday's close, fed-funds futures priced a 60% probability of no move in December. Just one day earlier, the market had priced the probability of a rate cut at roughly 50/50. In the weeks that followed the 29 October policy decision, the consensus had instead coalesced around a December easing.

Several Fed officials on Friday reiterated their hawkish stance, including Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey R. Schmid, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack. Speaking at the Pittsburgh Economic Club, Hammack said it is "not yet clear that monetary policy needs to do more." Logan added that, absent stronger evidence that inflation is falling faster than expected or that the labor market is cooling significantly more quickly, she would find it hard to support a December rate cut. Schmid likewise noted that the arguments that led him to oppose October's cut apply equally to the December meeting and emphasized that further easing would do little to relieve the structural strains in the labor market stemming from shifts in technology and immigration policy.

In sharp contrast, Fed Governor Stephen Miran has used two consecutive public appearances to press for another cut. At the October FOMC he voted with Schmid against the decision, having favoured a reduction larger than the ultimately delivered 25 bp. Miran—who will rejoin the White House as an economic adviser when his term expires in January—sides with President Trump in viewing the current funds-rate target as excessively restrictive. Chair Jerome Powell said in October that the moves so far were meant to hedge against a deterioration in labour-market conditions, but cautioned that the government shutdown has delayed key data, leaving the Committee "in a wait-and-see mode." A December cut, he stressed, is "anything but a foregone conclusion."

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands on USDJPY are widening with upward-sloping rails. The MAs remain bullishly aligned, leaving the primary up-trend intact. Price, however, is carving out a rising wedge while MACD histograms shrink, signalling waning momentum. RSI sits at 63—still exuberant. As long as the pair holds above the EMA12, the probability favours a retest of the upper Bollinger band at 155.50 and the psychological 160 handle.

On the 4-hour chart, Bands are pinching and the ribbon has flattened. MACD fast/slow lines have pulled back to the zero-axis and a bullish crossover is pending, flagging an imminent volatility expansion. RSI is neutral at 54, reflecting wait-and-see positioning. A decisive break below the mid-band opens the EMA200 (152.20). Conversely, sustained clearance of the mid-band targets 156.00.

In summary, traders are recommended to go long at lows in the short term.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 154.6

Target Price: 158.8

Stop Loss: 151

Support: 150/148.5/146.6

Resistance Levels: 155/156.7/158.8

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Commodity

Summary:

Last week, the U.S. government resumed operations after a shutdown, which led to a significant decline in gold prices. In the short term, market sentiment is leaning toward a downward trend.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4112.00

Entry Price

3950.00

4155.00

4197.91 -9.26 -0.22%

201.9

Pips

Profit

3950.00

4091.81

Exit Price

4112.00

Entry Price

4155.00

Fundamentals

Last week, the U.S. Congress made progress on a temporary funding bill, and the government reopening was confirmed. These moves directly reduced political uncertainty and restored the flow of macroeconomic data and fiscal spending expectations that had been disrupted. As a result, the market generally became optimistic about a rapid "return to normal" for the economy, which in the short term drove a rebound in risk assets.

For gold, the end of the shutdown has two intertwined transmission channels: 1. Increased certainty leads to a recovery in risk appetite, reducing the demand for safe-haven assets and thereby putting downward pressure on gold prices. 2. If the resumption of data releases and expectations of fiscal stimulus boost economic and inflation expectations, nominal interest rates will be boosted, which will further weigh on gold prices by raising real/nominal yields. Both of these channels tend to exert downward pressure on gold prices, but the short-term direction is still determined by the immediate reaction of yields and the U.S. dollar.

In reality, the market showed volatility around the shutdown news: when there was hope for an "end to the shutdown," gold prices briefly rose (a mix of safe-haven and rate-cut expectations). Then, gold gave back gains or declined due to strengthening interest rates, a stronger dollar, or risk reassessment. This suggests that short-term buying and selling momentum, as well as volume and capital flows, are key determinants of the outcome.

Technical Analysis

According to the daily chart, gold prices rebounded last Thursday to near the resistance level of $4230 but then pulled back under pressure. On Friday, driven by the negative impact of the government reopening, prices dropped nearly $200 from the day's high. Currently, they have found temporary support around $4040, and there is a short-term technical need for a corrective rebound.

In terms of technical indicators, the current price is still in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. In the 4H chart, the RSI stays around 40, indicating that market sentiment remains bearish and the room for a rebound may be limited.

At present, the key short-term resistance levels for gold are at $4116–$4150, while the first major support zone lies at $4030–$4000. If the price rebounds to the resistance zone but fails to break through and turns weaker, it may continue to decline in the short term, testing the $4000 level. Conversely, if it strongly breaks above $4150, the upward space for gold will open up, with potential to test the $4245 level.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4112.00

Target price: 3950.00

Stop loss: 4155.00

Valid Until: December 01, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 4032.23/4000.00

Resistance: 4116.00/4150.00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Tank

Commodity

Forex

Summary:

Monetary policy is moderate tightening, which aligns with expectations and should help suppress demand growth. Last week, the likelihood of a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December dropped below 50%, depressing non-yielding gold prices for the second consecutive day on Friday.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4076.19

Entry Price

3600.00

4390.00

4197.91 -9.26 -0.22%

345.5

Pips

Profit

3600.00

4041.64

Exit Price

4076.19

Entry Price

4390.00

Fundamentals

Several members of the FOMC expressed a lack of confidence in lowering borrowing costs, and traders reduced their expectations for another Fed rate hike. This, in turn, helped the U.S. dollar gain some positive momentum at the start of the new week, becoming a key factor weighing on non-interest-bearing gold. However, concerns over weakening economic momentum due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history kept alive the possibility of further monetary easing by the Fed, which may limit the dollar's gains. Additionally, as market risk appetite eases, this could provide some support for the safe-haven asset gold and help limit further downside. Traders may avoid taking new directional bets for now and instead wait for the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. Moreover, the October nonfarm payrolls data, due on Thursday, will also influence the dollar's movement and, by extension, commodity prices.

Personnel changes within the Federal Reserve, along with remarks from officials, heightened concerns about the independence of monetary policy. Former White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett expressed willingness to take over as Fed Chair and advocated for significant rate cuts, while dovish-leaning Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic unexpectedly announced his resignation in February next year. These events sparked speculation that future leadership changes might lean more dovish. Nevertheless, several current Fed officials maintained a hawkish tone during the week, emphasizing that the pause in rate cuts was not due to insufficient data but rather caution over the persistence of inflation. These statements dampen market expectations for a December rate cut from 66% to 43%. The tightening of rate path expectations further diminished the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as gold. At the same time, risk assets such as U.S. stocks, Treasuries, and cryptocurrencies also came under pressure, leading to synchronized cross-market sell-offs that intensified downward pressure on gold prices.

Technical Analysis

Based on the weekly chart, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upward. Last week's long upper shadow pattern signaled that a potential trend reversal could occur at any time. In addition, the MACD is about to form a death cross. If confirmed, prices are likely to adjust toward the EMA 12 level, around $3,930. The RSI stands at 69, indicating strong bullish sentiment; however, as prices are gradually declining, a correction is likely to emerge at any time. Regarding the daily chart, the MACD's bullish momentum is gradually weakening, yet prices have failed to make new highs — a sign of a potential bearish divergence. This increases the likelihood of continued short-term declines. Key support levels are the Bollinger Lower Band and the EMA 50, at 3,936, respectively. The RSI is at 52, placing the price in a neutral zone, although price highs continue to trend downward. It is recommended to sell at highs.

Gold Breaches $4,100 – Where Will the Decline End?_1

Gold Breaches $4,100 – Where Will the Decline End?_2

Trading Recommendations:

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4070

Target price: 3600

Stop loss: 4390

Support: 3900/3800/3600

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold pulls back from three-week highs as fading Fed rate-cut expectations and improved U.S. fiscal sentiment weigh on safe-haven demand, though equity volatility and AI-sector concerns help limit losses.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4120.00

Entry Price

4045.00

4180.00

4197.91 -9.26 -0.22%

28.6

Pips

Profit

4045.00

4117.14

Exit Price

4120.00

Entry Price

4180.00

Gold prices retreated from their recent surge on Friday, slipping from Thursday’s three-week high as shifting macro sentiment, firmer yields and a recovering U.S. Dollar forced bulls to give back early gains. Spot gold (XAU/USD) was last seen trading near $4,133, easing from the previous session’s spike to roughly $4,245, as investors reassessed how much room the metal has to advance in an environment where safe-haven demand is losing some of its urgency.

The market’s tone shifted noticeably following the resolution of the U.S. government shutdown, which removed one of the week’s most potent tailwinds for gold. The fiscal clarity reduced immediate risk aversion and allowed investors to rotate back into select risk assets, trimming the appeal of defensive holdings. At the same time, investors have been digesting a series of cautious remarks from Federal Reserve officials, who have collectively pushed back against growing expectations of a December rate cut. The messaging has forced traders to temper expectations for early monetary easing, causing Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar to recover after a period of softness.

This dynamic has created a more challenging environment for bullion. The non-yielding asset typically struggles when rate-cut hopes are scaled back, and the Fed’s reluctance to endorse imminent easing has triggered a recalibration across interest rate futures. The market now appears more aligned with a scenario where the central bank leans on incoming data rather than pre-committing to policy shifts. That uncertainty adds a layer of caution to gold’s outlook, even as broader risk sentiment remains fragile.

Despite the latest pullback, downside pressure has been moderated by persistent unease in global equity markets. Concerns about excessive valuations in the AI sector have once again rattled investor sentiment, contributing to weaker risk appetite across major indices. Tech-heavy benchmarks have experienced renewed selling pressure, and the sense that AI-linked valuations may be overstretched continues to draw capital into safe-haven assets during intraday swings. This push-and-pull between improving fiscal clarity on one hand and ongoing equity market fragility on the other is shaping a more complex trading environment for gold.

Investors are now focused intensely on the release of delayed U.S. economic data, which markets expect will influence the Fed’s next steps. Data covering inflation, employment and consumer spending will help determine whether the central bank maintains a cautious tone or moves closer to signaling easing in early 2025. From my perspective, gold’s medium-term trajectory remains broadly constructive, supported by an eventual policy shift, potential softening in global growth and ongoing geopolitical realignments. However, the near-term picture looks choppy, with every upside push constrained by the Fed’s communication strategy and every downside attempt cushioned by sporadic bouts of risk-off sentiment.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold has broken below its rising trendline, signaling a weakening in bullish momentum and increasing the likelihood of a broader corrective phase. The rejection from the upper consolidation area serves as confirmation that buyers are beginning to fatigue, allowing sellers to regain control around the $4,112–$4,130 region. The market is now watching how price behaves around successive retest regions. The first area of interest sits between $4,155 and $4,160, which represents the immediate supply created after the trendline breakdown. A rejection there would reinforce the current bearish undertone and could renew momentum toward lower supports.

Should the metal push higher, a more significant battleground emerges around $4,175 to $4,180, where a previous support structure has flipped into resistance. This region carries heavier technical significance because bulls would need a decisive break above it to invalidate the short-term bearish structure. Without such a breakout, sellers are likely to defend the zone aggressively, potentially triggering another wave of downside pressure. In essence, gold remains trapped between macro uncertainty and key technical barriers, leaving traders with a market that can turn sharply on small shifts in sentiment or data surprises.