JPY Won't Appreciate Without Essential Changes

Peterson

Forex

Summary:

Today's oscillation range should be 156.7-160.2, and it is better to sell at highs.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

156.696

Entry Price

160.200

154.500

143.035 -0.401 -0.28%

66.4

Pips

Profit

154.500

157.360

Exit Price

156.696

Entry Price

160.200

Fundamentals

During Monday's (July 15th) Asian session, USDJPY oscillated slightly, and it is now trading at 158.5.

The depreciation of JPY lasts longer than before. As Japan is highly dependent upon the import of natural resources, it is facing higher domestic risks under skyrocketing prices. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) intervened in the foreign exchange market for the third time. However, the scale was only 20 billion dollars. The USDJPY pair rebounded to 158 last Friday and once approached 160. Now, it has retraced to 157.4 thanks to the weakened USD and the interventions from the BOJ.

In addition, the huge U.S.-Japan interest rate differential still exists, which restricts USDJPY from declining. Although interventions will continue, they will only prove the vulnerability of the Japanese government, and investors will sell the JPY more aggressively. Hence, without essential changes, it is better to buy USDJPY. Every tremendous retracement will be a chance to buy in.

Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, USDJPY closed with a bear candle to achieve its second decline. It means that USDJPY returned to a weak trend, which should extend for a while. But judging from the channel below, USDJPY is now staying around the lower edge, and the support will be tested later. It is not recommended to sell the pair now, but try to buy it if it drops below the lower edge.

JPY Won't Appreciate Without Essential Changes_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 156.7

Target price: 160.2

Stop loss: 154.5

Support: 156.7/154.5

Resistance: 160.2/163.0

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Peterson

Commodity

Summary:

Today's oscillation range will be 80.0-83.0, and it is better to buy low and sell high.

BUY WTI

Close Time

CLOSED

80.000

Entry Price

83.000

79.000

62.152 +0.061 +0.10%

34.0

Pips

Loss

79.000

79.660

Exit Price

80.000

Entry Price

83.000

Fundamentals

During Monday's (July 15th) Asian session, WTI ascended slightly, and it is now trading at 81.3.

WTI crude oil is fluctuating now. We don't know how long the fluctuations will last. Of course, it is still in an uptrend, so we should mainly buy low. For this week's trading, the support is at 80.8 and 80.0, and WTI will turn bearish if it falls below 80.0. Meanwhile, the resistance will be 82.8 and 83.8, and further upside will be seen if it surges above 84. At the beginning of the week, WTI crude oil will oscillate in the range of 80.0-83.0, where investors can buy low and sell high.

Technical Analysis

Last Friday, a bearish piercing candle emerged to end the two-day rise. The MACD line crosses below the signal line and the death cross widens, confirming a short-term weak trend. However, in the 1H chart, crude oil is going to stabilize at last week's low, and the MACD line is likely to cross above the signal line to form a golden cross. Thus, crude oil may rebound in the 1H timeframe. Investors should watch the resistance at 82.5. The support will be at 80.1, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high in this range. However, it is not a good idea to chase the market in an oscillating market.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 80.00

Target price: 83.00

Stop loss: 79.00

Support: 80.00/78.50

Resistance: 82.00/83.80

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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FastBull Featured

Commodity

Summary:

Today's oscillation range should be $2392 - $2425, and it is better to buy low and sell high.

SELL XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

2425.00

Entry Price

2350.00

2450.00

3342.74 +54.57 +1.66%

0.0

Pips

Flat

2350.00

Exit Price

2425.00

Entry Price

2450.00

Fundamentals

During Monday's (July 15th) Asian session, spot gold oscillated slightly, and it is now trading at $2410.

After the release of the key CPI data, gold surged to $2425 before plunging to $2391. Then it rebounded again to $2418 on Friday, closing at $2410 in the daily chart after consolidations. Clearly, gold formed an oscillating pattern at highs despite an upward trend, with the resistance at the double-top level.

We should pay attention to the following points regarding the gold price this week. Firstly, gold is under a bullish trend, so we should easily sell it. The resistance at $2418, $2425 and $2450 is valid. Secondly, gold is expected to oscillate at the beginning of the week, so we should not blindly go long even with a bullish view because it may plunge during oscillations. Thirdly, with oscillations, gold is likely to decline. The support could be at $2392, $2375 and $2350, and $2350 will be the key level to determine a strong or a weak trend.

Technical Analysis

Technically, gold is strong in the daily chart. The price is always above SMAs, and SMAs are forming a clear uptrend. How the price closes in the first days of the week will be essential. If gold keeps rising in the daily chart, a significant upside space above will be opened. However, if it depreciates continuously and drops below the SMAs support, a large downside space will be opened as well.

At present, the 5-day SMA is sticking to the 10-day SMA and gold has closed lower. Thus, there is a need for oscillating lower later, and the support stays near $2392. As gold opened lower this morning, it won't rise much later but may keep fluctuating. The resistance will be $2425, and the support should be $2400 and $2392. Investors can buy low and sell high between these key levels.

Gold Oscillates at Highs after Surging_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 2425

Target price: 2350

Stop loss: 2450

Support: 2400.000/2350.000

Resistance: 2425.000/2450.000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Central Bank

Summary:

Gold's bullish momentum appears strong, driven by soft US inflation data and expectations of a Fed rate cut in September.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2409.97

Entry Price

2450.00

2380.00

3342.74 +54.57 +1.66%

53.0

Pips

Profit

2380.00

2415.27

Exit Price

2409.97

Entry Price

2450.00

Gold (XAU/USD) has demonstrated strong bullish momentum, climbing above $2,400 due to widespread US Dollar (USD) weakness. This significant rise has been driven by investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce the policy rate in September following softer inflation data. The potential for XAU/USD to reach new all-time highs becomes more likely once the $2,400 level is confirmed as support.

After a challenging start to the week, Gold prices turned upwards, reaching over $2,420, the highest in over a month. This movement was primarily influenced by key data releases from China and comments from Federal Reserve officials, which are expected to further drive the yellow metal's price action in the coming days.

Following soft US jobs data last Friday, Gold faced a decline of over 1% on Monday. This drop was attributed to the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) decision to pause Gold purchases for the second consecutive month in June. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions and optimism about a ceasefire-hostage deal between Israel and Hamas reduced Gold's appeal as a safe haven.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, in his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, highlighted that more favorable data would bolster their confidence in inflation management. Powell's comments on the cooling labor market did not trigger significant market reactions but did contribute to a modest selling pressure on the USD, aiding Gold's rebound.

Powell's testimony continued on Wednesday without new hints on the policy outlook. The improving risk mood, marked by the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs, made it challenging for the USD to find demand. Consequently, Gold extended its recovery ahead of crucial inflation data on Thursday.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a softening of inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), to 3% annually in June. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3%, below market expectations and May's increase of 3.4%. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.1%, with the core CPI up by 0.1%. This led to a decline in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield below 4.2% and significant selling pressure on the USD, propelling Gold above $2,420 for the first time since late May.

Gold corrected lower on Friday but managed to stabilize above $2,400 after a brief dip below this level following stronger-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) data for June.

Market participants will closely monitor China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data at the beginning of the week. The Chinese economy is forecast to expand at an annual rate of 5.1% in the second quarter, slightly down from the 5.3% growth recorded in the first quarter. A stronger-than-expected GDP reading from China could enhance optimism about Gold's demand outlook, pushing XAU/USD higher.

Additionally, the Communist Party of China is set to hold a long-delayed third plenum from July 15 to 18. Markets expect a series of economic reforms focusing on property policies. A positive market reaction following these reforms could further boost Gold prices.

In the US, June Retail Sales data will be the only high-tier release on Tuesday. A significant decline in this data could weigh on the USD, while a positive surprise could support the currency, potentially limiting XAU/USD's upside.

Investors will also focus on comments from Fed officials before the blackout period ahead of the July 30-31 policy meeting. Following the June inflation data, the probability of the Fed maintaining the policy rate in September dropped below 10%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. If Fed officials downplay the soft CPI readings, the USD could regain strength, causing XAU/USD to correct lower. However, market positioning suggests limited downside for the USD even if policymakers confirm an interest rate reduction in September.

Technical Analysis

Gold prices have shown a slight bearish bias, testing the $2,400 barrier. Holding above this level is crucial for continuing the bullish trend. A break below $2,400 would introduce additional negative pressure, targeting $2,340.10. Currently, the positive outlook remains valid as long as Gold holds above $2,400, with the next target set at $2,450.

The bullish momentum is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart, which has risen to 60. Furthermore, Gold has closed above the 50-day and 20-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) for eight consecutive trading days, indicating a buildup of bullish momentum. Should XAU/USD stabilize above $2,400 and continue to use this level as support, it could target the all-time high of $2,450 set in May, followed by the next psychological resistance at $2,500.

On the downside, the first support level aligns at $2,350, where the 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA converge. A daily close below this level could attract technical sellers, with the next support seen at $2,300, followed by $2,290 (100-day SMA). The current trend forecast for Gold remains bullish, provided it continues to hold above the critical $2,400 level.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE : 2410

STOP LOSS : 2380

TAKE PROFIT : 2450

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold prices dipped on Friday, reversing part of Thursday's gains driven by lower-than-expected US CPI data. Rising US Treasury yields and a modest USD rebound exerted pressure on XAU/USD.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2400.00

Entry Price

2370.00

2428.00

3342.74 +54.57 +1.66%

64.0

Pips

Profit

2370.00

2393.60

Exit Price

2400.00

Entry Price

2428.00

In a notable shift, gold prices (XAU/USD) pulled back on Friday, erasing a portion of the gains achieved after Thursday’s softer US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. On Thursday, the precious metal surged to the $2,424-2,425 range, marking its highest level since May 22, as expectations grew for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in September. Despite this positive momentum, gold failed to sustain its upward trajectory, pressured by a rebound in US Treasury bond yields and a modest strengthening of the US Dollar (USD).

Thursday’s rally was primarily fueled by the latest US inflation figures, which fell short of expectations and suggested a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the coming months. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a dip in the headline CPI for June, the first in over four years, with the annual rate slowing to 3% from May’s 3.3%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by only 0.1% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, missing consensus estimates.

Investors quickly reacted to these figures, significantly increasing their bets on a September rate cut. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool indicated a 90% probability of a rate reduction, with futures markets now pricing in a 49 basis point cut by December 2024, up from 39 basis points previously.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly acknowledged the improving inflation outlook, suggesting that one or two rate cuts this year could be appropriate. Similarly, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem noted that while recession risks remain low, the disinflation process is ongoing, though more progress is desired by policymakers.

Despite these dovish signals, the gold market faced headwinds from a recovery in US Treasury yields and a modest USD rebound. The yield on the benchmark 10-year US government bond climbed from its lowest level since March, providing a lift to the USD and putting pressure on the non-yielding precious metal.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, gold prices had broken through the crucial $2,400 mark on Thursday, signaling bullish momentum. However, the retreat on Friday suggests that the market is struggling to build on this breakout. Oscillators on the daily chart indicate positive momentum, yet remain below overbought levels, supporting the near-term bullish outlook.

Key support for XAU/USD is seen around the $2,388-2,387 region, which was a previous resistance breakpoint. Should this level fail, the next support zone lies near $2,358, with intermediate support around $2,372-2,371. On the upside, immediate resistance is at the recent swing high of $2,425. A break above this level could see gold challenging the all-time high of $2,450 reached in May.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GOLD

ENTRY PRICE : 2400

STOP LOSS : 2428

TAKE PROFIT : 2370

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Peterson

Forex

Summary:

Today's oscillation range should be 154.5-160.2, and it is better to sell at highs.

SELL USDJPY

EXP

PENDING

160.200

Entry Price

154.500

162.000

143.035 -0.401 -0.28%

Pips

PENDING

154.500

Exit Price

160.200

Entry Price

162.000

Fundamentals

During Friday's (July 12th) Asian session, USDJPY oscillated slightly, and it is now trading at 159.5.

The U.S. CPI declined more than expected in June, with the headline CPI dropping 0.1% MoM, marking the first negative reading since May 2020. The market expectation for a Fed rate cut rose substantially, and the U.S. bond yields plunged. Moreover, the market sees a 100% probability that the Fed will lower rates in September, with 2 rate cuts for the year. Then, the USDX declined to 104, and USDJPY also fell from 161 to 157.44 just 5 minutes after the CPI data release, followed by a rebound to 159.

Japan's media has reported the government's intervention in the foreign exchange market with an expected size of around $20 billion. We previously noted that interventions will be effective only if they follow the trend. As the BOJ's intervention followed the stronger Fed rate cut expectations, it would be more effective. And we expect another intervention from the BOJ next Monday, a national holiday in Japan.

Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, USDJPY closed with a bear candle and gave back all the gains in the past few days. As the short-term pattern changes, USDJPY may start a downtrend. Furthermore, as the MACD line crosses below the signal line and the death cross widens, investors should go short on the pair after a rebound. The resistance will be at 160.2, where investors can enter short positions.

U.S. Inflation Drops and BOJ Makes Intervention_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 160.2

Target price: 154.5

Stop loss: 162.0

Support: 157.4/154.5

Resistance: 160.2/163.0

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Peterson

Commodity

Summary:

The fluctuation range during the day will be 2,392-2,425, and investors are advised to buy low and sell high.

SELL XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

2425.00

Entry Price

2350.00

2450.00

3342.74 +54.57 +1.66%

250.0

Pips

Loss

2350.00

2450.01

Exit Price

2425.00

Entry Price

2450.00

Fundamentals

During the Asian session on Friday (July 12), spot gold fluctuated and is currently trading around 2,407.

The U.S. inflation data released yesterday showed a broad-based cooling in June, further reinforcing market expectations for an earlier start to Fed rate cuts. The U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) and Treasury yields plunged significantly, boosting gold prices sharply higher. In overnight trading, gold briefly rose to US$2,425, edging closer to its historical high, although its sustainability requires further assessment. Much of this depends on whether the Fed will lower rates as expected. It is not advisable to jump to conclusions prematurely.

Technical Analysis

Technically, XAUUSD closed with a long bull candle in the 1D timeframe yesterday, holding above the SMA. The Bollinger upper band is getting wider, indicating strength and a potential further uptrend. The immediate resistance lies at 2450, while the critical support for downside movement is at 2392. A breach below 2392 could signal a shift in strength, potentially leading to a bearish close on Friday with significant downward pressure.

Currently, in the 1H timeframe, the MACD bullish momentum is decreasing, while the KDJ is trending downwards but hasn't crossed below 50 yet, suggesting that any further upward moves might easily become a reversal. Given the high gold prices, it is advised not to be overly optimistic, or excessively pessimistic. It is recommended to remain cautious. For today's trading, the resistance level to watch is at 2420, while the support levels are at 2405, 2392, and 2380.

Rate Cut Expectations Strengthen as Inflation Cools_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 2425

Target Price: 2350

Stop Loss: 2450

Support: 2400.000, 2350.000

Resistance: 2425.000, 2450.000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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