From the UK's perspective, inflation remains "firm," leading to a slower pace of monetary easing by the Bank of England (BoE) compared to the Federal Reserve (Fed). This divergence is expected to continue benefiting GBP/USD in the medium term. On September 11th, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves indicated that the government is considering reforms to business rates (also known as non-domestic rates), aiming to make it easier for small businesses to expand and further stimulate economic growth. Proposed measures include smoothing out sharp tax increases faced by businesses when property values rise during expansion, as well as adjusting the tax calculation method to offer greater relief when properties are improved or upgraded. These proposals come ahead of the annual budget announcement scheduled for November 26th. Now, the UK economy faces multiple challenges, including rising borrowing costs, an uncertain growth outlook, and the recent failure of a welfare cuts bill in Parliament — leading many economists to believe that the government may need to secure additional funding amounting to tens of billions of pounds. Reeves noted, "Our economy isn't broken, but it does feel stuck." Helen Dickinson, CEO of the British Retail Consortium, expressed support for the reform plans but urged the government to quickly clarify previously promised tax reductions for retail, hospitality, and leisure businesses. She added that until the budget is officially unveiled, many local employment and store investment plans will remain on hold.

On Thursday, US initial jobless claims data came in worse than expected, signaling continued weakness in the labor market. This further reinforced market expectations that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting next week. In addition, this dovish outlook has put downward pressure on the US dollar index, extending its recent weak trend. Market expectations now suggest that the Fed's rate-cutting cycle will not stop in September. Meanwhile, the market has fully priced in over 100 basis points of rate cuts over the next year. Key upcoming dates include: October 30th — if the Fed cuts by 50 basis points in September, it may pause in October; if the cut is only 25 basis points, the October meeting will become much more significant; December 11th — as the final meeting of the year, it could mark a crucial point for a potential third (or second) rate cut; and May 2026th — when Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term ends, with uncertainty surrounding his reappointment. Andrew Tyler, Head of Global Market Intelligence at JPMorgan, commented: "We don't think this report poses a credible threat to the Fed's suspension of interest rate cuts in September, but a significantly hawkish data will indeed adjust the Fed's response function to the October and December meetings."

Based on the weekly chart, GBP/USD initially fell below the EMA12 but quickly rebounded with support from the Bollinger middle band, now returning above the EMA12. The RSI is nearing 60, entering a strong bullish zone. Besides, the MACD lines are about to form a golden cross. If this cross materializes, the price could break above 1.379. A strong breakout may push the pair toward 1.4, while a weaker breakout might see it retreat to around 1.32. The daily chart indicates that the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the moving averages are flattening, suggesting that a breakout could happen at any time. The RSI stands at 55, and although the MACD has formed a golden cross, no clear reversal signal has emerged yet. Overall, the pair is expected to rise toward previous highs near 1.379. It is recommended to buy at lows.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.357

Target price: 1.4

Stop loss: 1.32

Support: 1.34/1.337/1.32

Resistance: 1.36/1.362/1.4

Despite a pause in the dollar's downtrend and a rise in risk appetite, gold attracted fresh safe-haven flows after news of new U.S. tariffs dented investor sentiment. The Financial Times reported late Thursday that Washington will press the G7 to impose sharply higher tariffs on Russian crude purchased by India and China, aiming to force Moscow into peace talks with Ukraine. Meanwhile, the market continues to price in three Fed rate cuts this year, with the potential for a sizable reduction at the September meeting.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market continues to price in a 92% probability of a 25 bp cut and an 8% chance of a 50 bp reduction at the Fed's September meeting. Dovish rhetoric remains intact as softening labour-market conditions eclipse sticky inflation, underpinning non-interest-bearing gold. The U.S. CPI rose 0.4% MoM in August, twice July's 0.2% pace, lifting the annual inflation rate to 2.9%, in line with consensus. Later today, U.S. consumer-confidence and inflation-expectation prints could offer fresh cues on the Fed's rate trajectory and, by extension, USD-denominated gold. Trade headlines will also be scrutinised, while the gold is on track for a fourth consecutive weekly advance.

Labor-market data fell short of expectations again, pressuring the U.S. dollar index. Initial jobless claims for the first week of September jumped by 27,000 to 263,000, the highest level since October 2021 and well above consensus. The print is notable for two reasons: (i) the single-week increase is the largest in nearly three years, pointing to a rapid contraction in labour demand; and (ii) unadjusted claims in Texas surged by 15,300, suggesting a regional or sector-specific—possibly energy- or tech-related—deterioration in employment conditions. While continuing claims came in marginally below forecast, indicating that long-term unemployment has yet to deteriorate, the abrupt spike in initial claims is typically viewed as an early-cycle signal of an economic inflection point.

On the hourly chart, gold pierced the upper Bollinger band but was quickly rejected. After finding support at the lower band, it rebounded sharply. The MACD fast-slow line has printed a golden cross and an "angel-kiss" continuation pattern. RSI reads 66, signalling strong bullish momentum that is likely to retest the recent 3,675 high and possibly extend beyond 3,700. A renewed slide below 3,610 would open room for a probe toward the EMA200 at 3,581.

Weekly, price broke above the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle and has since ridden the upper Bollinger band higher. The bands are widening, the moving-average stack is fanning upward and MACD has registered a golden cross. RSI at 72 is in overbought territory, leaving the market vulnerable to a pullback. Overall, a throwback to the triangle's former resistance-turned-support is probable before the next leg up. Provided the EMA12 holds, the up-trend remains intact.

In conclusion, the advised trading strategy is to buy dips and favour longs.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3651

Target Price: 3900

Stop Loss: 3550

Support: 3600/3550/3400

Resistance: 3700/3800/3900

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rose again in August, with headline CPI climbing to 2.9% year-over-year while core CPI held steady at 3.1%. The recent relief from falling gasoline prices is being offset by renewed price pressures in housing and food, while prices of consumer goods such as electronics and clothing are also trending higher as tariffs from the Trump administration begin to trickle down to consumers.

Money markets in the U.S. have now fully priced in three quarter-point interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) before the end of the year. The Fed is widely expected to deliver an initial 25 basis point cut at its policy meeting next week, with markets also anticipating two additional rate cuts at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings scheduled for October and December.

Adding to the dovish tone, initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 surged to 267K, well above the consensus estimate of 235K and notably higher than the previous reading of 237K. This sharp increase underscores renewed weakness in the labor market, which could further strengthen the case for the Fed to move swiftly on policy easing.

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now fully pricing in three rate cuts by year-end. Markets view a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming September 17 FOMC meeting as virtually certain, while the probability of additional cuts on October 29 and December 10 has climbed to nearly 95%.

Meanwhile, U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data surprised to the downside, with headline PPI falling 0.1% month-over-month in August versus a forecasted 0.3% increase, bringing the annual rate down to 2.6% compared to the expected 3.3%. Core PPI also declined 0.1% on the month, missing expectations for a 0.3% gain and dragging the annual rate to 2.8% from a projected 3.5%.

On the political front, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee advanced the nomination of Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board in a 13-11 vote on Wednesday, sending it to the full Senate just ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting. Miran, who also serves on the White House Council of Economic Advisers, is seen as supportive of faster rate cuts. However, his dual role has raised concerns about the Fed’s political independence.

Separately, the Trump administration said Wednesday it will appeal a federal judge’s ruling that temporarily blocked President Donald Trump from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook. The case stems from allegations made prior to her confirmation, which the court ruled did not meet the “for cause” standard required under the Federal Reserve Act.

In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revised down its annual benchmark payroll figures by -911K for the 12 months through March 2025, well below economists’ estimates of -682K, adding further weight to signs of labor market weakness.

XAUUSD is currently rebounding from its 100-period moving average on the 1-hour chart. If this support holds, the ongoing uptrend could resume from this zone, offering buying opportunities on dips. The 100-period moving average sits near 3630, while the 200-period moving average lies around 3578 — a level that has also acted as a solid support zone in previous pullbacks and could serve as the next downside target if the price weakens further.

Meanwhile, the RSI has dropped to 32, approaching oversold territory. Traders will be closely watching price action as it tests this support area, with a sustained rebound potentially setting the stage for another move toward the all-time high near 3673.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 3620

Target price: 3670

Stop loss: 3580

Validity: Sep 19, 2025 15:00:00

U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation picked up again in August, with headline CPI rising to 2.9% year-over-year while core CPI held steady at 3.1%. The recent relief from falling gasoline prices is being offset by renewed price pressures in housing and food costs. At the same time, consumer goods such as electronics and clothing are climbing in price as the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration begin to filter through to consumers’ wallets.

Money markets in the U.S. have now fully priced in three quarter-point rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) before year-end. The Fed is widely expected to deliver an initial 25 basis point cut at its policy meeting next week, with markets also fully anticipating two additional rate cuts at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings scheduled for October and December.

Adding to the softening tone, initial jobless claims for the week ending September 6 jumped to 267K, far above the consensus forecast of 235K and notably higher than the prior reading of 237K. This sharp rise underscores renewed weakness in the labor market, which could reinforce the case for the Fed to act sooner rather than later.

According to CME’s FedWatch Tool, interest rate futures traders are fully pricing in three rate cuts by year-end. A 25 basis point cut is viewed as virtually certain at the upcoming September 17 FOMC meeting, while the probability of additional rate cuts on October 29 and December 10 is now hovering near 95%.

Meanwhile, Canadian money markets remain firm, with Canadian bond yields easing midweek and helping to provide some support to the Loonie on Thursday. Still, Canada’s economy appears to be in the early stages of a recession, and economic indicators continue to point toward further monetary easing from the Bank of Canada (BoC) on the horizon.

Canada’s Ivey PMI dropped sharply from a robust 55.8 in July to 50.1 in August, just above the stagnation threshold, signaling a marked slowdown in economic activity. This deterioration has intensified concerns about the resilience of Canada’s economy and is increasing the likelihood of a dovish shift from the BoC.

USDCAD is currently shaping a head-and-shoulders formation, with the pair in the process of building the second shoulder. Depending on how this pattern develops, it can be either bullish or bearish — but in this case, the setup leans bearish. If USDCAD fails to break above the right shoulder and post a new higher high, price could resume lower, with the next key support seen near 1.3758.

The 100-period and 200-period moving averages on the 4-hour chart are positioned at 1.3818 and 1.3802 respectively. A clear break below these levels could accelerate downside momentum and confirm the start of a broader corrective move. Meanwhile, the RSI recently peaked at 68, just shy of overbought territory, suggesting that momentum could soon reverse. A new leg lower from current levels would align with this overextension, whereas a breakout above the right shoulder would invalidate the bearish setup and open the door to further gains.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.3833

Target price: 1.3760

Stop loss: 1.3910

Validity: Sep 19, 2025 15:00:00

The recent record-high print has been driven by a “risk-off” narrative centred on sticky inflation, ballooning sovereign debt and a visibly cooling US economy. Since April, the scaling-back of speculative length, juxtaposed with constrained supply and concurrent uptick in end-user demand, is poised to exert incremental upward pressure on the gold price.

ETF flows—particularly those of Asian-listed vehicles—remain a pivotal swing factor for gold. Any re-acceleration of inflow momentum would provide an additional tail-wind to prices; we therefore raise our 12-month target to USD 3,850.

A persistently accommodative monetary-policy backdrop is universally regarded as enhancing gold’s carry-adjusted attractiveness, having already propelled the metal almost 6% higher since early September. After such a pronounced rally, however, the market is vulnerable to a tactical pullback: the up-trendline drawn from the May low has been violated and longs are treating the all-time high of USD 3,657 as an opportune profit-taking level.

Meanwhile, the RSI is on the verge of printing a bearish divergence. Given the steepness of the rollover, a corrective move toward the psychological USD 3,550 mark is in play.

In sum, although gold’s upward momentum is showing early signs of fatigue, the market’s structural inertia offers investors little justification to price in a decisive regime shift from bullish to bearish dominance. That said, a high-impact surprise next Wednesday remains on the tail-risk radar.

From a technical perspective, the gold continues to churn just below record highs.

Momentum gauges remain aligned with the prevailing bullish narrative. During the day, although a pullback has unfolded, no broad-based liquidation has yet materialized. For prospective shorts, the constructive cue is that the downward revisions in both PPI and payrolls failed to propel gold through the USD 3,700 resistance.

This suggests that, before any sustained break of the 3,700 handle, a retracement toward the USD 3,575 support cluster is the higher-probability path.

Conversely, if bullish impulse re-engages, a print of new all-time highs would require a decisive close above USD 3,700—a scenario most likely catalyzed by either an escalation in geopolitical tail-risk or a material downside surprise in next month’s U.S. CPI print.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3626

Target Price: 3850

Stop Loss: 3567

Valid Until: September 26, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 3607/3561/3544

Resistance: 3644/3646/3660

Recently, USDJPY has experienced heightened volatility. Since printing a cycle low at 139.89 on 22 April 2025, the pair has remained confined within a four-month-plus "rising-wedge" formation.

On Monday, USDJPY rallied as much as 0.8% to an intraday peak of 148.59, yet the entire move has since been retraced. By Thursday the quote was effectively unchanged at 147.98.

Market participants have largely looked through the political noise stemming from Prime Minister Ishiba’s resignation, instead focusing on variables that could alter the Bank of Japan(BoJ)’s current trend of monetary-policy normalisation.

Thursday’s release showed Japan’s August Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) edging up to a 2.7% YoY pace from 2.5% in July, in line with consensus. The uptick was driven primarily by food & beverage prices, which accelerated to 5.0% YoY (prev. 4.7%). Utility charges, cushioned by government subsidies, fell 2.9% YoY, mitigating the headline impulse.

Import-price deflation narrowed markedly for a second straight month: yen-denomitated import prices declined only 3.9% YoY versus a revised –10.3% drop in July. The data signal that, while domestic food inflation remains sticky, external cost pressures are now stabilising.

All told, the shifting fundamental backdrop is likely to exert upward pressure on the JPY.

The intraday bias of USDJPY stays neutral. The pair is expected to consolidate above 146.29. As long as 149.12 caps on a closing basis, upside risk remains dominant. Conversely, a sustained break below the EMA55 (currently 147.15) would confirm completion of the 139.87 rebound—already tracing out a clear three-wave advance to 150.90—and open the door to a deeper corrective leg.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 149.19

Target Price: 151.80

Stop Loss: 145.89

Valid Until: September 26, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 146.85/145.86/145.21

Resistance: 149.19/150.97/151.32