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      GBPUSD: Positive Momentum Above 1.2040 Level May Drive Prices Further Upward

      Forex MarketInflation and RecessionCentral Bank Policy TrendsEconomic Trends
      Summary:

      GBPUSD lost momentum and fell below the 1.2050 level after hitting an intra-day high above 1.2100 in early European trade. The pair is currently in a neutral range. Investors are trading cautiously as they watch how the ECB will set policy amid market tensions.

      Buy GBPUSD
      End Time
      CLOSED

      1.20815

      ENTRY PRICE

      1.24500

      TGT PRICE

      1.18010

      SL PRICE

      1.23081 +0.00221 +0.17%

      796

      Points

      Profit

      1.18010

      SL PRICE

      1.21611

      CLOSING

      1.20815

      ENTRY PRICE

      1.24500

      TGT PRICE

      Fundamentals

      The positive correlation between the British pound and market sentiment may have weakened, as the pound remains the second-best-performing G10 currency so far this year, after the Swiss franc, despite the recent low-risk aversion. The sharp narrowing of the UK current account deficit has helped break the link between the pound and market sentiment. Another influencing factor is Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's optimism that the negative impact of Brexit on trade may ease and that the UK government's fiscal credibility has improved significantly.
      The U.K. government's upcoming spring budget may not have a material impact on the pound at first but could be beneficial to the pound in the long run. The budget is likely to focus primarily on expanding UK economic growth, including capital subsidies to encourage business investment. The budget announcement is (in the short term) unlikely to move markets (barring positive growth-related surprises), but the persistently high level of uncertainty and pessimism associated with the UK in recent years has receded, suggesting that the pound could certainly perform better going forward.
      However, inflation in the UK is staying above 10%, which is taking a significant toll on households. According to the Office for Budget Responsibility, real household disposable income is expected to fall by around 5.7% over the next two years. This would mark the largest two-year decline since records began in 1956. However, the Office for Budget Responsibility has a surprisingly optimistic view of inflation, which is expected to fall to just 2.9% by the end of the year.
      Slowing wage growth in recent months has raised doubts about whether the Bank of England will raise interest rates by 25 basis points on March 23. However, even if the BoE leaves rates unchanged, the GBPUSD pair could test the January high of 1.2450 if the Fed becomes cautious in the wake of the Silicon Valley bank collapse, allowing risk sentiment to return.
      GBPUSD: Positive Momentum Above 1.2040 Level May Drive Prices Further Upward_1

      Technical Analysis

      Yesterday, the GBPUSD fell sharply to the 1.2012 level due to the strong rise in the USD. Despite the decline, the downside momentum has not been significantly stronger. Today, the pair remained in range-bound consolidation and retreated slightly, but did not fall below yesterday's lows and remains part of the lower trading range of 1.2000-1.2150. In other words, a significant break of 1.2000 is unlikely.
      Looking at the overall running structure, the upside momentum is expected to start building, but the bulls must clearly break 1.2203 for the rally to be sustainable. Intraday, a clear break above 1.2203 will remain unchanged as long as the pair stays above 1.2040.
      From a broader perspective, the price action at 1.2445 is seen as a corrective pattern of the rise from the 1.0351 mid-term bottom (the 2022 low). A firm break of 1.2440 is expected after a late recovery to target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.4248 (the 2021 high) to 1.0351 at 1.2759. As long as the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1.0351 to 1.2445 at 1.1645 holds the dip, this would still favor a bullish pattern.
      However, a decisive intraday break below 1.2045 and the 4-hour 55 EMA would indicate that the high pattern at 1.2445 is extending and a bearish trend is forming before turning downward again until the target range at 1.1801. Overall, the range structure of the rally is in favor of the bulls. It's recommended to buy the dips.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading Direction: Long
      Entry Price: 1.2050
      Target Price: 1.2450
      Stop Loss: 1.1801
      Valid Until: 2022-03-30 23:55:00
      Support: 1.2009, 1.1983, 1.1938
      Resistance: 1.2113, 1.2203, 1.2271
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Eva Chen

      Analyst

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

      Rank

      4

      Articles

      539

      Win Rate

      65.74%

      P/L Ratio

      0.58

      Focus on

      WTI, XAUUSD, USDCAD

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