GBP/USD Hovers Near Key Resistance as Bullish Divergence Emerges

Economic

Summary:

The British Pound rose modestly on Friday, supported by upbeat UK GDP data and dovish-leaning commentary from Bank of England’s Greene.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.35600

Entry Price

1.37000

1.35000

1.34402 -0.00252 -0.19%

60.0

Pips

Loss

1.35000

1.34998

Exit Price

1.35600

Entry Price

1.37000

The British Pound remained marginally higher against the US Dollar during Friday's North American session, as investors digested a confluence of economic and geopolitical developments that have the potential to recalibrate central bank expectations and currency flows in the coming weeks.

Sterling initially touched a session high of 1.3581 before retracing slightly to trade around 1.3532 by the New York close, registering a mild 0.05% gain on the day. The move reflected cautious optimism following a report by The Wall Street Journal indicating that US President Donald Trump is granting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent the authority to adjust technology export controls imposed on China. The development hints at a possible thaw in the ongoing trade standoff between the world’s two largest economies, a key geopolitical risk that has weighed heavily on market sentiment in recent months.

On the domestic front, the Pound drew support from stronger-than-expected UK economic data. Preliminary estimates for first-quarter 2025 GDP came in above consensus, highlighting the UK economy's resilience in the face of tightening monetary conditions and sluggish global demand. The positive data suggests the British economy may be more robust than previously anticipated, offering the BoE some breathing room as it charts the course for future interest rate policy.

Adding to the bullish case for the Pound was commentary from BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene. Speaking on Friday, Greene noted that the disinflation process in the UK is progressing, with inflation expected to trend toward the central bank's 2% target over the medium term. Her remarks—although measured—were interpreted by markets as an early sign that the BoE may not be far from a potential policy pivot, particularly if inflation continues to ease in line with projections.

Across the Atlantic, US non-farm payrolls surprised to the upside, with 139,000 jobs added in May—beating economist expectations of 130,000. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, reinforcing the narrative of a labor market that remains sturdy despite persistent headwinds from high interest rates and elevated inflation. However, underlying softness in wage growth and hours worked continues to signal that the broader economy is decelerating, albeit gradually.

This data set, while stronger than forecast, is unlikely to dramatically shift the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance in the near term. Market participants continue to expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its upcoming meeting, with rate cuts potentially on the table later in 2025 should inflation ease further and growth slow meaningfully.

Arguably the most market-sensitive headline of the day came not from an economic release, but from the geopolitical arena. According to reporting by The Wall Street Journal, President Trump is offering Treasury Secretary Bessent increased discretion over the administration's export control policy, particularly with regard to tech sales to China. This could mark a significant softening of Washington’s stance on Beijing, potentially reducing the risk of further escalation in the trade conflict that has plagued global markets.

Investors interpreted the news as a sign that the Trump administration may be seeking a more pragmatic approach ahead of the 2025 presidential election cycle, especially given rising concerns about inflation and global supply chain fragility. Equity markets reacted with cautious optimism, although major US indexes still closed the day in negative territory, weighed down by lingering uncertainties.

Next week promises to be a critical one for Sterling traders. On the UK side, upcoming government spending plans, BRC Retail Sales Monitor, labor market data, and trade balance figures will provide fresh insight into the strength of the economic recovery. These prints could significantly influence the BoE’s tone in upcoming communications, particularly if data surprises again to the upside.

In the US, the focus shifts to inflation metrics, with May CPI and PPI due midweek. Also on the docket are jobless claims and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment survey, which could offer more color on consumer confidence heading into the summer.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is trading just below the key resistance zone around 1.3585. The pair has managed to find short-term support at the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), reinforcing the prevailing bullish trend structure. A developing positive divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI)—especially after entering oversold territory—indicates that momentum may be building for a potential upside breakout.

Should the pair breach 1.3585 with sustained buying volume, it could pave the way for a rally toward 1.3660 and possibly beyond. Conversely, a failure to hold above 1.3500 would raise the risk of a near-term retracement, particularly if US inflation data surprises to the upside and revives hawkish Fed bets.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3560

STOP LOSS: 1.3500

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Central Bank

Summary:

The New Zealand Dollar climbs to near year-to-date highs, fueled by optimism ahead of high-stakes US-China trade talks in London. The US Dollar softens as the post-payrolls rally fades despite strong labor data.

BUY NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.60400

Entry Price

0.61500

0.60000

0.59580 -0.00338 -0.56%

16.4

Pips

Profit

0.60000

0.60564

Exit Price

0.60400

Entry Price

0.61500

The New Zealand Dollar surged on Monday, outperforming all major currencies as global risk sentiment improved ahead of a crucial meeting between US and Chinese trade officials in London. NZD/USD rose nearly 0.7% intraday, testing the 0.6080 level—its highest since the start of the year—as markets priced in growing optimism that the meeting could yield a breakthrough, or at the very least, a signal of renewed cooperation.

The rally in the Kiwi was mirrored by strength in other risk-sensitive currencies such as the Australian Dollar, both of which are widely seen as proxies for Chinese economic activity. Investor confidence was boosted by a weekend social media post from US President Donald Trump, who indicated progress in trade discussions, fueling hopes of easing tensions between the world's two largest economies.

The stakes are high for the talks in London, with markets increasingly attuned to any signals that could help clarify the path of global trade policy. A constructive outcome could not only support commodity-linked currencies but also inject fresh momentum into emerging markets and risk assets more broadly.

While risk currencies gained traction, the US Dollar pulled back after a brief rally on Friday that followed the release of stronger-than-expected labor market data. The Dollar Index (DXY) declined on Monday as investors began to shift their attention from domestic fundamentals to geopolitical developments.

Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the US economy added 139,000 jobs in May, beating the market consensus of 130,000. Average hourly earnings grew by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing expectations of 3.7%, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. The report momentarily bolstered the greenback, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and easing recession concerns.

However, despite the robust labor data, traders appeared reluctant to chase the Dollar higher. The retracement suggests markets are placing more weight on external risks, particularly the outcome of the US-China meeting and its implications for global growth and trade stability.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, NZD/USD has entered a bullish phase, clearing the important resistance level at 0.6025. The pair remains supported by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), with momentum indicators pointing toward further gains. A developing bullish divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), following a period of oversold conditions, further strengthens the case for a sustained upward move.

The price structure shows a potential inverse head-and-shoulders formation, which, while not textbook in shape, indicates the potential for a medium-term trend reversal. The upside target remains around the 0.6150 zone, provided that price action holds above the 0.6025 support and continues to benefit from improving sentiment.

As long as NZD/USD trades above the rising trendline on the daily chart, the bullish bias remains intact. A daily close above 0.6080 would likely accelerate the move toward the next key resistance at 0.6150, while a failure to hold current levels could see the pair retrace toward the 0.6000 handle.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6040

STOP LOSS: 0.6000

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6150

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Alan

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Affected by profit-taking, Bitcoin has recently pulled back from $112,000 to a low of $100,400. It has since rebounded but remains below the $107,000 resistance level, with upward pressure intensifying in the short term.

SELL BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

105925.2

Entry Price

101000.0

109000.0

103503.9 -718.2 -0.69%

3074.8

Pips

Loss

101000.0

109000.0

Exit Price

105925.2

Entry Price

109000.0

Fundamentals

On June 9th, Bitcoin held steady above $105,000, and the market closely monitors the impact of key U.S. economic data and global macro events this week.

On one hand, the U.S. is set to release May CPI data on Wednesday. If inflation rises unexpectedly, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, keeping the U.S. dollar resilient and pressuring USD-priced-in Bitcoin.

On the other hand, high-level China-U.S. trade talks resumed on June 9th. Substantial progress in negotiations could boost risk assets, including Bitcoin.

Additionally, major financial institutions fail to provide substantial updates on the approval progress of Bitcoin ETFs. In the short term, institutional entry may continue to slow, with significant speculative profit-taking pressure.

Overall, a stronger U.S. dollar and regulatory uncertainty pose short-term headwinds, while China-U.S. trade talks and expectations for downstream ETFs are adding divergence to the market.

Technical Analysis

Rebound after Exhausted? Bears Eyeing the 100,000 Level_1

Based on the daily chart, Bitcoin came under pressure and pulled back after hitting a high of $112,000 at the end of May. It accelerated its decline to $100,400 on June 6th before quickly rebounding, indicating some support. Currently, Bitcoin rebounds but remains below the $107,000 resistance level. Consecutive bearish candles on the 4-hour chart suggest significant upward resistance at this level. If the weakening continues, Bitcoin may test the $100,400 support level downward in the short term.

Now, Bitcoin has encountered selling pressure during two consecutive rebounds near $107,000, failing to break through the resistance zone formed by the earlier decline. The likelihood of a short-term downward pullback is high, and the $105,000 level provides temporary support. If Bitcoin breaks below this level, it may test the $100,400 support level further.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 106000

Target price: 101000

Stop loss: 109000

Valid Until: June 23, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 105000/100400

Resistance: 106804/108897

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Central Bank

Forex

Summary:

The euro has faced short-term pressure following the ECB's rate cut but has rebounded to a six-week high, supported by the hawkish stance and pause signals from the ECB meeting. In contrast, New Zealand's recent high interest rates, along with raw material exports and commodity prices, provide fundamental support for the New Zealand dollar (NZD). The New Zealand dollar remains relatively robust in the short term.

SELL EURNZD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.89162

Entry Price

1.81700

1.91250

1.92914 +0.01072 +0.56%

208.8

Pips

Loss

1.81700

1.91250

Exit Price

1.89162

Entry Price

1.91250