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GBPUSD: Bears Should Leave Once It Breaks Psychological Threshold of 1.2300

Inflation and RecessionCentral Bank Policy TrendsForex Market
Summary:

UK data show further signs of a labor market reversal, with employment falling but wages rising faster. While wage growth remains largely positive, the real wage growth rate remains negative when adjusted for real prices.

Buy GBPUSD
EXP
TRADING

1.24143

ENTRY PRICE

1.25000

TGT PRICE

1.20700

SL PRICE

1.23973 +0.00062 +0.05%

0

Point

Flat

1.20700

SL PRICE

CLOSING

1.24143

ENTRY PRICE

1.25000

TGT PRICE

Fundamentals

The number of jobless claims in the UK increased by 19,700 in December, following a rise of 16,100 a month ago. This is a logical development after the steady decline earlier last year.
Meanwhile, the ILO unemployment rate in the UK remained at 3.7% for the three months of November. This is 0.2 percentage points higher than the low in August, but these levels are still low by historical standards. For policymakers, the low unemployment rate reflects a drop in active labor, forcing the government to launch a tax incentive scheme to reward those over 50 who return to work.
In theory, this should increase supply and curb wage growth, which now looks like the most dangerous part of the inflation spiral. Wages in the last three months to November were 6.4% higher than a year earlier, lower than the current inflation rate. However, this risk of high wage growth rates is the most important factor anchoring inflation expectations and overall inflationary pressures.
A new set of inflation data will be released tomorrow morning. On average, no significant price drop is expected. The combination of high consumer inflation and higher wages could force the Bank of England to push the economy further into recession to curb consumption and control price growth, which would benefit the GBP.
GBPUSD: Bears Should Leave Once It Breaks Psychological Threshold of 1.2300_1

Technical Analysis

The continuation of the upward trend after the GBPUSD broke 1.2300 was indeed beyond our expectations. Judging from the current upward trend, bulls might wish to further expand the upward trend to the previous high of 1.2446, until the previous supply zone level of 1.2517.
The GBPUSD has continued to rally since hitting a new all-time low of 1.0356 in September. Although the price experienced a slight pullback after its rise was resisted at 1.2445, the recent 50-day SMA crossing above the 200-day SMA brought upward pressure. However, instead of the expected sharp pullback, the price has rebounded structurally. Short-term oscillators now suggest that bullish strengths are dominating. Specifically, the RSI hovers above its neutral threshold of 50, while momentum continues to build above the MACD 0-axis.
If the positive momentum is further strengthened, the GBPUSD could first test the recent resistance of 1.2445. After breaking this level, bulls could aim for the early supply zone of 1.2517 and the May high of 1.2666. Further increases are likely to stop at the psychological threshold of 1.3000, which became strong support in March 2022.
On the other hand, the first occurrence of a bearish reversal could start in the early supply zone of 1.2517. If the reversal occurs after the completion of the test at this level, the price could again fall into a prolonged consolidation.
Overall, the GBPUSD seems to have the necessary momentum for a medium-term rally. Therefore, a break above the recent highs at 1.2445 would confirm the bullish scenario. It is recommended to go long at the lows.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long
Entry price: 1.2300
Target price: 1.2500
Stop loss: 1.2070
Deadline: 2023-02-01 23:55:00
Support: 1.2360, 1.2300, 1.2257
Resistance: 1.2390, 1.2445, 1.2517
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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Eva Chen

Analyst

Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

Rank

5

Articles

480

Win Rate

65.12%

P/L Ratio

0.62

Focus on

XAUUSD, WTI, USDCAD

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