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EURUSD: The Euro Fluctuates at High and May Fall Slightly In the Short Term

Inflation and RecessionForex Market
Summary:

Unlike the high consensus reached by the Fed on slowing rate hikes, the ECB is rife with divisions. Moreover, minutes on Thursday of the ECB's October meeting showed that policymakers were concerned that inflation could become entrenched, providing justification for further rate hikes. However, the current market is not focused on this, so it does not have much impact on the Euro, and its role in the rise of the Euro may just seem like the "cherry on the top".

Sell EURUSD
EXP
EXPIRED

1.04390

ENTRY PRICE

1.03600

TGT PRICE

1.04800

SL PRICE

1.08763 +0.00092 +0.08%

--

Point

EXPIRED

1.03600

TGT PRICE

1.04014

CLOSING

1.04390

ENTRY PRICE

1.04800

SL PRICE

Fundamentals

The Euro performed fluctuant on Thursday, and edged up 0.14%, standing above the MA200 initially at 1.0387. For one thing, this is mainly due to the higher US jobless claims data and the weak US manufacturing PMI, which are interpreted by the market as a slowdown in the labor market. In addition, the more rapid decline in US output and demand will keep inflation falling in the coming months, giving the Fed enough reason to slow the pace of increase. This has also pumped up expectations of the slowing in growth that have cooled in previous sessions due to the pressure on Fed officials' speeches. The dollar retreated as a result.
As for the minutes of the November meeting of the Fed, the impact on the dollar was not significant at that time. However, since the minutes first mentioned a recession in the staff's economic outlook, this may change the direction of the market's trading. In other words, the Euro still has the potential to go uptrend.
Unlike the high consensus reached by the Fed on slowing rate hikes, the ECB is rife with divisions. “The pandemic in the energy crisis may have more permanent negative effects on current and future potential output”, ECB Executive Director Schnabel said yesterday. Coupled with fiscal policy, inflation outlook, and real interest rates for most maturities remaining in the negative territory of the EU countries, this may indicate that the policy is too accommodative and further rate hikes are needed.“The room for slowing down the pace of interest rate adjustments remains limited”.
Obviously, Schnabel is opposed to slowing down rate hikes.
At present, Panetta, Visco, Ketno, and Lien are clearly in favor of slowing down the rate hike;
Kazacks, Nagel, Kazmir, Mueller, Holzman, Schnabel are in support of aggressive rate hikes;
While Shimkus remained neutral and leaned towards hawks;
Besides, the stances of Lagarde, Kindos, Villeroy, and Rennes are unclear temporarily.
Moreover, minutes on Thursday of the ECB's October meeting showed that policymakers were concerned that inflation could become entrenched, providing justification for further rate hikes. However, the current market is not focused on this, so it does not have much impact on the Euro, and its role in the rise of the Euro may just be the "cherry on the top".

Technical Analysis

Trading at the 4-hour chart, the current trend of the Euro can be basically divided into two areas. One is in a wide amplitude oscillation of 1.0439-1.0225, and the other is in a narrow range of 1.0439-1.0307.
The strong resistance in the short term is naturally 1.0439, and the key resistance is 1.06252, which is the neckline of the Large Double Top in the weekly chart, and it is also the beginning of the Euro's June-to-date decline. While the short-term strong support is 1.0307/1.0225, and the key support is around 0.99, which is close to the parity and is also at the ceiling of the triangle ascending range in the historical trend. A break below this line will be the implication of the retreat to a downtrend in the Euro. For indicators, Stoch, DMI, and the Ichimoku chart all signify a decline of the Euro in the short term.
EURUSD: The Euro Fluctuates at High and May Fall Slightly In the Short Term_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Short
Entry Price: 1.0439
Target Price: 1.0360
Stop Loss: 1.04800
Support: 1.03600/1.03274/1.0307
Resistance: 1.03992/1.0439/1.0494/1.04700
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Jason

Analyst

I have an in-depth study of fundamentals, especiaslly for the US dollar market. I'm good at short and medium term trading by virtue of my profound financial theoretical knowledge and extensive practical experience.

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489

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