Go Long at the Lows for the Last Bullish Space

Summary:

The EURUSD continues to gain traction and climbs above 1.0400 for the first time since July. The EURUSD is expected to extend last week's rally after Monday's downside correction. Moreover, the near-term technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact.

BUY EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.03897

Entry Price

1.07300

1.02000

1.09625 +0.00140 +0.12%

26.9

Pips

Profit

1.02000

1.04166

Exit Price

1.03897

Entry Price

1.07300

Fundamentals

The EURUSD accelerated its recovery from a new 20-year low of 0.9535 last week mainly due to a weaker USD, as there are signs that the Federal Reserve may ease its aggressive tightening policy after a further drop in U.S. inflation in October.

However, a Fed policymaker commented over the weekend that the Fed has not softened its efforts to fight inflation. The slight decline in inflation over the past two months was not enough to trigger a stronger response from the Fed, and more easing is needed to show that inflation has peaked.

The recent decline in the USD could continue to push up inflation by offsetting recent strong interest rate hikes, with the only marginal easing of inflation, meaning interest rates may have to remain high for an extended period of time to contain inflation and the final rate will be higher than initially estimated.

Monday's rebound in the USD could be seen as a reaction to the oversold situation in the 1D timeframe and profit-taking after last week's sharp drop. However, from the overall structure, it is still expected to be bearish, while the correction is still below 109.58. This situation will provide a better selling opportunity for the USD to further fall and break 104.46.

After gaining support at the lower limit of the upward channel on Monday, EURUSD bulls continue to trade within the rising return channel from the beginning of November. However, the relative strength index in the 4H timeframe is back above 70, suggesting another downward correction could occur before the EURUSD aims for new multi-month highs.

On the upside, the upper level of the rising channel at 1.0460 is in line with the first resistance. If EURUSD rises above this level and confirms it as support, the next target is likely to be the psychological barrier of 1.0500. Meanwhile, the end of the uptrend channel at 1.0400 and the lower limit of the uptrend channel at 1.0300 could serve as a temporary support.

EURUSD: Go Long at the Lows for the Last Bullish Space_1

Technical Analysis

The EURUSD is moving toward the 200-day SMA. If it manages to break above this level, then it could get a positive retracement with a larger outlook. However, the price is currently retreating with weakness, indicating a possible small bearish move in the near future.

In terms of momentum index, the MACD is strengthening its upward momentum above its 0-axis, while the relative strength index is slightly lower after hitting the 70 range, indicating an overbought situation and a possible bearish trend in the near term.

It could hit 1.0420 of its 200-day SMA in further upward space, followed by a resistance of 1.0620 on June 27. From here to the higher levels, bulls could encounter the next resistance of 1.0780 and 1.0900.

On the other hand, a downside reversal could push prices to the highs since August 17 at 1.0200, before touching the threshold of 1.0100 and the psychological barrier of 1.0000. Another move lower could turn the bias back to negative and attract bears to focus on touching the bullish cross within the 20-day and 50-day SMAs at 0.9875 and then the short-term uptrend line around 0.9820. After breaking through this barrier, the EURUSD could hit a low of 0.9630 again.

Overall, the EURUSD has shown an aggressive bullish structure recently and any next key move after a break above the 200-day SMA will support this outlook. From a broader perspective, the situation turns bullish. It is recommended to go long at the lows.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 1.0370

Target price: 1.0730

Stop loss: 1.0200

Deadline: 2022-11-29 23:55:00

Support: 1.0300, 1.0197, 1.0177, 1.0138

Resistance: 1.0480, 1.0500, 1.0780, 1.0900

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

Broader Bullish Outlook Will Push the GBPUSD Further Upward

Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

The GBPUSD gained support near 1.1700 on Monday and continued to gain traction after climbing above 1.1800 earlier on Tuesday. The exchange rate has broken through the static resistance of 1.1850. If this level turns to support, bulls are bound to continue the momentum above 1.2000.

BUY GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.18888

Entry Price

1.21500

1.11500

1.26339 +0.00086 +0.06%

25.5

Pips

Profit

1.11500

1.19143

Exit Price

1.18888

Entry Price

1.21500

Fundamentals

The US Dollar Index (USDX) lost 106.00 for the first time since August, down 0.91% for the day. The GBPUSD regained its traction after a technical correction, rising 1.00% in the day to 1.1870.

A fresh sell-off around the USD pushed the GBPUSD higher in Europe. Meanwhile, U.S. stock index futures rose 0.5% to 1% on the day, suggesting that risk flows will continue to dominate financial markets during New York session. Unless market sentiment worsens, the USD will struggle to rebound and open up the space for further gains of the GBPUSD.

The UK Office for National Statistics reported that the unemployment rate edged up slightly to 3.6% from 3.5% in the three months to September, with employment growth of 2.7% YoY, but the data failed to trigger a clear reaction from the market. Further details of the report show that annual wage inflation, measured by the average income excluding bonuses, rose from 5.5% to 5.7%, the biggest increase since August 2021.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the October producer price index (PPI) data later. The core PPI for the year is expected to remain unchanged at 7.2%. While stronger-than-expected PPI data could help the USD gain a foothold, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on risk perception.

The GBPUSD could be supported at 1.1850. If it continues to rise above this level and starts to use it as a support, bulls are bound to target the previous support of 1.1900 and the psychological barrier of 1.2000.

On the downside, the static level of 1.1800 was consistent with the initial support before the 20-week SMA of 1.1750. At the same time, the relative strength index in the 4H timeframe remained below 70, indicating that the GBPUSD still has more room to move up before turning overbought.

GBPUSD: Broader Bullish Outlook Will Push the GBPUSD Further Upward_1

Technical Analysis

GBPUSD is maintaining its upward momentum in the near term after rising above its daily SMA and long-term downtrend line. The price touched a two-and-a-half-month high of 1.1853 on Friday, with technical indicators all pointing to further positive momentum in the near term.

In terms of the momentum index in the 1D timeframe, the MACD is running upward, with the fast and slow lines strengthening their positive momentum above the 0-axis, indicating that there is a large upward space. The RSI edged into the bullish range but was not yet close to the overbought level of 70.

Judging from the current rally structure, the direct resistance to a further rally of bulls will be suppressed by 1.1890, which is also the upward resistance to the sharp drop in price to 1.0355 on August 23. Therefore, this will prove to be an insurmountable obstacle to the GBPUSD. If the bulls successfully break through this level, the GBPSUD will encounter further resistance when reaching around the 200-day SMA of 1.2230.

However, if the strong upward momentum loses relaxes at the current level and the exchange rate goes down, the first support is 1.1640 and the 20-day SMA is 1.1500. A break below the latter will push prices closer to the 50-day SMA and the short-term upward trend line of 1.1340. Failure to hold above this level will bring the focus back to the downtrend, while more room for decline turned the market's attention to 1.1150.

Overall, the broader bearish outlook is set to turn positive for the GBPUSD in the near term following this sharp price rally, which could be supported by a break above the 200-day SMA. It is recommended to go long at the lows.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 1.1850

Target price: 1.2150

Stop loss: 1.1150

Deadline: 2022-11-29 23:55:00

Support: 1.1891, 1.1670, 1.1660

Resistance: 1.1900, 1.2000, 1.2120

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Try to Long After Retracement

Jason

Summary:

Brainard's speech certainly reinforced market expectations, keeping the USD on the downside. There is no significant economic data during the day, market expectations will remain dominant. It is important to be wary of the possibility that some traders will take profits after the USD has plunged for two consecutive trading days, thus causing another technical pullback.

BUY USDX

Close Time

CLOSED

106.000

Entry Price

107.250

105.400

103.133 -0.119 -0.11%

60.0

Pips

Loss

105.400

105.390

Exit Price

106.000

Entry Price

107.250

Fundamentals

After plunging for two consecutive trading days, the USD appreciated slightly by 0.5% with an oscillation on Monday. The appreciation was due to the latest announcement of the New York Fed's latest survey of consumer expectations, showing an increase in the short-, middle- and long-term inflation expectations. Besides, home price growth expectations were unchanged, while the expected change in gasoline prices increased sharply. In addition, unemployment expectations reached their highest level since April 2020, while Households' perceptions of their current financial situation have deteriorated, as have their expectations for household finances in the year ahead.

Inflation expectations are a direct response to public confidence that the Fed can bring inflation down over time. Once confidence is low, it will trigger a series of actions that artificially push up inflation. Thus, the anchoring of inflation expectations has been a vital issue for the Fed.

Regarding the survey report, short-term inflation expectations increased more, and medium- and long-term inflation expectations rose only slightly and remained solid, largely in line with the Fed's long-term inflation targets. Therefore, the USD gains were limited.

Sadly, USD started to depreciate during the European session, losing back all the gains of yesterday. It reveals that the current expectation of slowing rate hikes remains the key tone, and the temporary retracement of the USD is just a technical consolidation.

After Fed Governor Waller, Brainard is the second Fed official to say in recent days that he is ready to start a smaller rate hike as early as the December meeting. He explained, it is possible that a slower pace of rate hikes is appropriate in the near term. By taking a more cautious, data-dependent pace, the path of future rate hikes can be better judged. We just need to make the judgment that on a sustainable basis, what is the appropriate restrictive level necessary to maintain this balance?

Technical Analysis

Regarding the 4H chart, the USD is currently oscillating in a narrow range at around 107.361-106.363. It is temporarily hovering at 106.363, which is the bottom of the historical trend during July 19th-29th with small and medium-sized oscillations between 106.363-107.361. Whether it will make effective breakthroughs is still questionable. Furthermore, the strong support below is 105.65, and it is where the 61.8% Fibonacci retracements locate. If the USD drops below this line, it will go straight forward to 103.5. Referring to indicators, Stoch, DMI, and Ichimoku Kinko Hyo all indicate that the USD could pull back. Considering that the USD has depreciated, it is recommended to catch a round of pullback.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 106.00

Target price: 107.25

Stop loss: 105.40

Support: 105.654/104.703

Resistance: 106.363/106.940/107.361

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

US PPI Coming, Gold Prices Continue to Surge Higher?

King Ten

Commodity

Summary:

Focus on the U.S. PPI data tonight. As the forecast transaction dominates at the moment, it is not advisable to go against the market. However, pay attention to the opportunity for rational return after the end of the stage of emotional trading, and one can properly trade with small positions at key points.

SELL XAUUSD

EXP

EXPIRED

1803.56

Entry Price

1755.00

1833.00

2014.82 +0.79 +0.03%

Pips

EXPIRED

1755.00

1754.81

Exit Price

1803.56

Entry Price

1833.00

Fundamentals

During the Asian session on Tuesday (Nov. 15), spot gold oscillates at highs and is currently trading at $1780/oz, having broken the August 16 high of 1783.04 during the day. The expectation of a slowdown in the pace of interest rate hikes by the Fed still provides support for gold prices, and perhaps investors' attention will turn to the evening U.S. PPI data and price-in. The data will generally be transmitted to CPI in about 1 quarter and can be used as a forward-looking reference indicator for the level of U.S. inflation.

The market currently expects the U.S. October PPI growth of 8.3% year-on-year, the previous value of 8.5%, and if it meets expectations, this would be the fourth consecutive month of slowing growth. The market also expects the U.S. core PPI to grow 7.2% year-on-year in October, which is in line with the previous value and the lowest level in almost a year. Meanwhile, if it meets expectations, the gold prices will continue to be favorable; on the contrary, it may face a retracement.

Technical Analysis

In terms of the daily chart, gold prices have not yet shown obvious signs of topping, as it first quickly broke through the 1725-1735 strong resistance, and now comes to the 1760-1800 resistance range. If there is a favorable impact in the coming sessions, the price is biased to continue to surge higher and is expected to rise further to the 200-day SMA near 1803.56, which is also near the resistance of the August high.

XAUUSD: US PPI Coming, Gold Prices Continue to Surge Higher?_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price: 1803.56

Target price: 1755.00

Stop loss: 1833.00

Support: 1765.00/1735.00

Resistance: 1807.00/1835.00

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Be Wary of Cooling of Trading on Expectations, to Long at Lows

King Ten

Forex

Summary:

With slowing US inflation growth and high market sentiment, the JPY fell from around 147 to as low as 138.5. The market is trading on expectations rather than reality, and then it is important to be wary of an intraday rally after trading sentiment cools.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

139.356

Entry Price

147.000

137.000

148.444 -0.186 -0.12%

101.0

Pips

Profit

137.000

140.366

Exit Price

139.356

Entry Price

147.000

Fundamentals

On Monday morning, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Waller stated that CPI's year-on-year growth rate of 7.7% in October was still significant. The lower-than-expected inflation is just a point-in-time figure, and other similar data is needed to prove that inflation is slowing. In the meantime, a continued decline in inflation needs to be witnessed before a slowdown in rate hikes can begin to be considered. However, in the evening, Fed Vice Chairman Brainard stated that it could be appropriate for the FOMC to move to a slower pace of rate hikes. There can be a lag in the impact of rate hikes on the economy, and it can be meaningful to move to a more prudent and data-dependent pace of rate adjustments. In the market reaction, the 10-year UST opened higher to 3.89% yesterday morning from Thursday's close of 3.82% as a result of Waller's speech. But after Brainard's speech in the evening, US bond yields and the US dollar (USD) pared their gains. The market is now relatively unanimous in the expectation of a 50bp rate hike in December, and the key is the disagreement over the terminal rate, including inconsistent signals from officials within the Fed.

Overall, with the slowing US inflation growth and high market sentiment, it is clear that the market has become remarkably extreme over the past two days. But the market can have overreacted to the CPI. The non-US currencies have all reached near resistance levels, and then, there is a high probability that the market will pull back this week.

Technical Analysis

In the 1-hour chart, after two days of declines, the three months of gains in the JPY have been engulfed. The decline has stabilized, and there are signs of a withdrawal by the bears. However, with this rapid and deep move to the downside, there is bound to be a large number of bulls from the previous period forced to stop loss and join the bears. The bears now can also be potential bulls, and the current prices lead to a concern about a possible return to the bulls.

USDJPY: Be Wary of Cooling of Trading on Expectations, to Long at Lows_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: 140.000

Target price: 147.000

Stop loss: 137.000

Support: 138.50/137.000

Resistance: 147.00/150.00

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Go Long as Price May Rebound in the Short Term

Damon

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

BTC dipped to around 15800 yesterday before rallying quickly. A phased bottom has been established. It is expected to move out of the oscillation range in the short term, with the resistance near 18000 and support around 16000.

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

16865.0

Entry Price

17800.0

15700.0

37243.0 +494.1 +1.34%

53.0

Pips

Profit

15700.0

16918.0

Exit Price

16865.0

Entry Price

17800.0

Hot News

1. Fed Vice Chair: The Fed will likely soon slow its interest rate hikes.

2. FTX has total liabilities of nearly $9 billion and owes more than $5 billion in cash; FTX's new CEO: FTX will pay as usual in the short term and is firing employees.

3. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust's (GBTC) negative premium reached a record 42%.

Sentiment

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index is at 22, representing extreme fear. The index was 24 yesterday and 22 the day before yesterday. Market sentiment is not volatile for the time being. Yesterday, Binance CEO said his company would create "a crypto industry recovery fund", which boosted the market in the short term with a small rally.

Technical Analysis

BTC swung for two days over the weekend and dipped to around 15800 yesterday before rallying quickly with the stimulation of the news release by Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao. A phased bottom has been established. It is expected to move out of the oscillation range in the short term, with the resistance near 18000 and support around 16000. In the 4-hour time frame, the price is rebounding after bottoming out for the second time. And in the 12-hour and the daily charts, there's some space for the rebound. But as a bear market isn't over in the larger time frame, it's recommended to go long in the short term and then exit the market quickly.

BTC 4-Hour Candlestick Chart

BTC-USDT: Go Long as Price May Rebound in the Short Term _1

BTC 12-Hour Candlestick Chart

BTC-USDT: Go Long as Price May Rebound in the Short Term _2

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price: Market price

Target price: 17800

Stop loss: 15700

Support: 15800

Resistance: 18000

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

A Standard Fifth-Wave Structure Has Been Completed, It Is Recommended to Buy the Dips Rather Than Chasing High

Eva Chen

Commodity

Summary:

Spot gold ended last week with a surge. In one fell swoop, it rose above the 200-week SMA and the resistance of the Bollinger mid-rail. Nonetheless, the indicators also suggest expectations of a short-term rally topping out. However, after the post-market pullback adjustment, we will be watching for an expected test of the 100-week SMA by the bulls.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1746.00

Entry Price

1820.00

1719.00

2014.82 +0.79 +0.03%

117.9

Pips

Profit

1719.00

1757.79

Exit Price

1746.00

Entry Price

1820.00

Fundamentals

Recently, gold prices have risen sharply from the bottom of $1615 for three times in two consecutive weeks, rising to $157. From the current sharp price rise, gold prices basically turned around from the decline mode that started in March this year.

Although there is still some risk of a short-term pullback, a correction from the current highs, or further strength to touch the $1,800 mark after a pullback, in the longer term, it is a bullish retracement correction, and it still does not change the expectation that the bottom has been reversed. From the weekly chart, prices broke through the 200-week SMA and the resistance of the Bollinger mid-rail in one fell swoop last week. Currently, the MACD and KDJ still maintain the golden cross status. Therefore, there is still room for further strength after hitting $1760 last week.

From the daily chart, gold prices after a continuous sharp rally have now broken through the 100-day SMA and remained stable. However, due to the indicators of momentum weakened and the completion of the fifth-wave structure, it is expected to have the risk of a pullback. Nevertheless, in view of the current negative factors are less, the market is still expected to strengthen. For this reason, the current price is still expected to continue to strengthen to near the 200-day SMA. During the day, we are concerned about a pullback in the shorter cycle than the daily chart.

XAUUSD: A Standard Fifth-Wave Structure Has Been Completed, It Is Recommended to Buy the Dips Rather Than Chasing High_1

Technical Analysis

Gold prices opened with a small gap on Monday. Gold prices fell back below the Aug. 25 high of 1,765 after hitting a two-and-a-half-month high of $1,772 on Friday.

The sharp price rally confirms the triple bottom structure formed by gold prices from the 29-month low, signaling the possible start of a bullish trend reversal. However, as the RSI and the stochastics oscillator appear to be losing momentum around oversold levels, the risk of a pullback cannot be ruled out in the near term.

If prices reverse lower, Friday's low of $1747 would serve as first support. Below that level, the focus would again shift to the key $1730-1722 area, which lies at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the $2070-1614 downside channel. Further declines from here could re-challenge the 1700 psychological barrier before the 20- and 50-day SMAs and the important $1670 mark.

If the rally recovers above $1772, the next target could be the 1788-1800 area, which is formed by the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the 200-day SMA. This is also where prices peaked in August. However, we are more bullish on a sharp price reversal here.

Overall, gold prices have the potential to rise further, although the bulls may face an adjustment after last week's quick rally before continuing higher. A fall below the $1730-1722 level could pose a negative risk. It is recommended to buy the dips.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1746

Target Price: 1820

Stop Loss: 1719

Valid Until: 2022-11-28 23:55:00

Support: 1747, 1730, 1722

Resistance: 1772, 1782, 1788, 1800

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

Eva Chen

Analyst

Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

Ranking

Articles

836

Win Rate

69.20%

P/L Ratio

0.56

Focus on

WTI, XAUUSD, GBPUSD

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Go Long at the Lows for the Last Bullish Space

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Broader Bullish Outlook Will Push the GBPUSD Further Upward

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Try to Long After Retracement

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

US PPI Coming, Gold Prices Continue to Surge Higher?

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Be Wary of Cooling of Trading on Expectations, to Long at Lows

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Go Long as Price May Rebound in the Short Term

Hot News

Sentiment

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

A Standard Fifth-Wave Structure Has Been Completed, It Is Recommended to Buy the Dips Rather Than Chasing High

Fundamentals

Technical Analysis

Trading Recommendations

Risk Disclosure