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EUR/USD: Bearish Outlook for the Upcoming Week
Summary:
The EUR/USD currency pair is poised to continue its bearish trajectory in the forthcoming week, supported by a combination of technical analysis and fundamental factors.
EXPIRED
1.09500
ENTRY
1.05000
TGT
1.10500
SL
1.07609 -0.00001 0.00%
--
Point
EXPIRED
1.05000
TGT
1.07149
CLOSING
1.09500
ENTRY
1.10500
SL
Technical Analysis: Lower Highs and Lows Suggest Bearish Momentum
From a technical standpoint, the EUR/USD pair has encountered difficulty surpassing resistance levels, establishing a pattern characterized by lower highs and lows. Crucial trendlines and support levels have been breached, indicating the initiation of a countertrend movement. While lower timeframes indicate a potential overextension, it is advisable to await the formation of a new lower high, which can serve as an opportune entry point for short positions.
Fundamental Factors: Dollar Index Strengthens as Inflation Concerns Linger
The Dollar Index (DXY) exhibits signs of an upward breakout, accompanied by profit taking and a shift in sentiment towards the Euro, primarily driven by persistent inflationary pressures in the United States.
In the US, consumer prices experienced a 4.9% annual increase, slightly below the projected 5%. Concurrently, the US core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 3.2% year-on-year, marginally below the anticipated 3.3%. Additionally, the US Producer Price Index observed a monthly increase of 0.2%, slightly lower than the forecasted 0.3%. However, initial jobless claims surpassed expectations, with 264,000 Americans filing for unemployment benefits, indicating persistent challenges within the labor market.The press secretary has identified the potential default on US obligations as the "single biggest threat" to the economy.
In Europe, consumers within the Eurozone anticipate inflation to reach 5% over the next 12 months, marking an escalation from the previous estimate of 4.6% in February, thereby indicating mounting concerns regarding rising prices. The European Central Bank (ECB) acknowledges that the battle against inflation is far from over, with one official asserting that the recent interest rate hike will not be the last.
Market Expectations: ECB and Fed Interest Rate Hikes
The ECB is anticipated to raise interest rates by 25 basis points during its next meeting on June 9, although some analysts posit the possibility of a more substantial increase of 50 basis points. The ECB faces pressure to adopt a more assertive approach in combating inflation, while also considering the potential repercussions of higher rates on the economy.
Similarly, the US Federal Reserve is is expected to be 5.25 percent by the end of this quarter. The Fed confronts pressure to adopt a more aggressive stance against inflation, yet must also assess the potential impact of elevated rates on the economy.
Impact on EUR/USD: Anticipated Pressure and Support Levels
The simultaneous rise in interest rates in the US and Europe is projected to exert downward pressure on the EUR/USD currency pair. Consequently, it is expected that the pair will test support levels at 1.0500 and 1.0000
Trading Strategy: Entry, Target, and Action
Entry: Following a minor pullback and the subsequent formation of a consolidation phase.
Target: Lower range.
Action: Exercise patience, wait for a pullback within the demand zone, and monitor the formation of a consolidation pattern.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Sell EURUSD
Entry Price : 1.09500
Stoploss : 1.10500
Take Profit : 1.0500
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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Warren Takunda is an experienced financial analyst and CFO at Verge Capital in Dubai, with a proven track record in the finance industry. He leads the finance team and is responsible for financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren has extensive experience in financial modeling and investment analysis, which enables him to provide valuable insights to clients.
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