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      EURUSD: 50 Bps Hike As Expected Is the Best Trade-off, Euro May Continue to Fall Later

      Inflation and RecessionCentral Bank Policy TrendsEconomic TrendsForex MarketBanking Crisis in Europe and America
      Summary:

      The European Central Bank raised its three main policy rates by 50 basis points but gave no guidance on the future policy path in line with market expectations. The ECB highlighted the prevailing risks to the economic and inflation outlook, but further rate hikes may be needed if the current crisis is effectively mitigated.

      Sell EURUSD
      End Time
      CLOSED

      1.06355

      ENTRY PRICE

      1.04450

      TGT PRICE

      1.07600

      SL PRICE

      1.08335 +0.00376 +0.34%

      1245

      Points

      Loss

      1.04450

      TGT PRICE

      1.07600

      CLOSING

      1.06355

      ENTRY PRICE

      1.07600

      SL PRICE

      Fundamentals

      The ECB stuck to its original path and achieved the expected 50 bps hike, but the subsequent statement was ready to disappoint some market participants due to the recent troubles in the banking sector.
      We think this is the best thing the ECB can do in this situation. If it doesn't raise rates, the ECB will lose some credibility. It will have to think long and hard. But the ECB also did not want to disappoint those who were calling for a sharp rate hike. Therefore, the central bank raised rates without providing forward guidance or a commitment to future rate hikes. It stated, "the elevated level of uncertainty reinforces the importance of a data-dependent approach to the Governing Council's policy rate decisions." In other words, this is the best trade-off in the current window where the banking crisis coexists with hyperinflation.
      In addition to not providing forward guidance, it also stated that the ECB has the toolkit to provide liquidity support when needed and is prepared to address financial and price stability risks. However, if financial stability risks recede, the ECB could raise rates further. It has not ruled out further rate hikes, which is the balance the market wants to see.
      Indeed, inflation remains disturbingly high, which may require further policy tightening. The recently released Eurozone inflation data for February barely slowed. Headline CPI fell slightly to an annual rate of 8.5%, but remained above expectations for a slowdown to 8.3%. Meanwhile, core CPI accelerated from 5.3% to a record high of 5.6%. Core inflation is a major concern for the ECB, and the fact that it rose further suggests the need for further policy tightening.
      Despite the highly uncertain outlook for the rate resolution, currency market volatility was very limited. Looking ahead, systemic risk concerns appear to dominate major currency pair volatility. We remain inclined to see systemic concerns recede in the coming weeks, but we are careful to acknowledge that markets are highly sensitive to negative news, which leaves us in a wait-and-see mode and unable to reach a clear judgment in the short term. Over the next 3-6 months, we still expect the EURUSD to be below current levels. We believe the ECB deposit rate to peak at 4%, with a 50 bps hike in May and 25 bps in June and July respectively.
      EURUSD: 50 Bps Hike As Expected Is the Best Trade-off, Euro May Continue to Fall Later_1

      Technical Analysis

      The EURUSD lost its bullish momentum on Friday and fell back below 1.0650. The negative shift in risk sentiment seems to help the USD show resilience and limit the upside of the pair ahead of the release of interim data.
      The EURUSD is expected to experience a decline, with short-term rebounds appearing to be corrective before another drop.
      From a technical perspective, the trend momentum signal tends to turn down, which should limit the EUR's ability to rebound yesterday. Immediate support is in the range of 1.0510-1.0515, while the risk for the EURUSD is inclined towards approaching the range of 1.0445.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading Direction: Short
      Entry Price: 1.0650
      Target Price: 1.0445
      Stop Loss: 1.0760
      Valid Until: 2022-03-31 23:55:00
      Support: 1.0525, 1.0481, 1.0445
      Resistance: 1.0603, 1.0650, 1.0760
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Eva Chen

      Analyst

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

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