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COPPER: Supply-Demand Expectations Are Loose, Copper Price Will Depreciate

Summary:

High inflation is difficult to ease shortly, the monetary policies in Europe and the US are difficult to turn, and the cumulative negative impact of the high interest rates will continue to emerge. Also, global economic growth will slow down, demand growth will descend, while the supply side maintains a high growth, and the loosening of supply and demand will drag copper prices down further.

Sell COPPER
End Time
CLOSED

8018.000

ENTRY PRICE

7600.000

TGT PRICE

8150.000

SL PRICE

9259.745 +4.400 +0.04%

132000

Points

Loss

7600.000

TGT PRICE

8152.605

CLOSING

8018.000

ENTRY PRICE

8150.000

SL PRICE

Fundamentals

Macroscopically, in September-October this year, the JP Morgan global manufacturing PMI has continuously fallen below 50% or below the threshold. Meanwhile, central banks in Europe and the US pushed up interest rates swiftly, expanding the accumulated negative impacts on the economy and IMF has lowered global economic growth expectations since 2022. In October, the IMF expected the global economy to grow by 3.2% in 2022 and slow down to 2.7% in 2023.  
Demand: The US is the world's second-largest consumer of copper, and its construction consumption of copper is high. According to the US new home sales and existing home sales data, the US real estate boom continued to weaken with the Fed's rapid interest rate hikes. At the same time, the lack of chips is still the core reason for limiting global auto sales growth this year, and it is expected that it will not be improved significantly next year, while the overseas demand may slow down next year. 
Supply: despite the slow growth of copper output in Chile and Peru, global copper output has seen steady growth, driven by significant production growth in the DRC, Indonesia, Mongolia, and Kazakhstan. Additionally, benefiting from the round of copper mine capital expenditure expansion in 2016-2017, the growth in new copper mine capacity expansion globally in the past two years was clear to see. 
In general: High inflation is difficult to ease in the short term, the monetary policies in Europe and the US are difficult to turn, and the cumulative negative impact of the high interest rates will continue to emerge. Also, global economic growth will slow down, demand growth will descend, while the supply side maintains a high growth, and the loosening of supply and demand will drag copper prices down further.   

Technical Analysis

Referring to the 1H chart, there is the double-shoulders pattern. Copper may extend the depreciation with the next support located in the range of 7500-7700.  COPPER: Supply-Demand Expectations Are Loose, Copper Price Will Depreciate_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short
Entry price: 8018
Target price: 7600
Stop loss: 8150
Support: 7865/7621
Resistance: 8114/8321
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Focus on

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