Can Gold Surpass 4380 with Triangle Consolidation Pattern Breakthrough?

Commodity

Summary:

Gold continues to strengthen, supported by geopolitical risks and rising expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts. Technical analysis shows a pronounced bullish trend.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

4212.19

Entry Price

4360.00

4190.00

4197.91 -9.26 -0.22%

221.9

Pips

Loss

4190.00

4189.37

Exit Price

4212.19

Entry Price

4360.00

Fundamentals

Gold prices have recently strengthened amid intertwined geopolitical risks and interest rate expectations, briefly surging to 4264.66 before retreating into a volatile range. A series of developments escalating tensions between China and Japan, including friction over the Diaoyu and Senkaku Islands and verbal confrontations at international forums, have elevated “regional geopolitical risks” on the trading agenda. As uncertainty intensifies, investors naturally rebuild their safe-haven positions, benefiting gold as a traditional safe-haven asset.

From a transmission logic perspective, Sino-Japanese tensions impact gold prices through three pathways: First, direct safe-haven premium, when regional conflict risks escalate, some multinational capital shifts positions from risk assets to gold and government bonds, driving up gold prices in the short term; Second, macroeconomic and trade shocks, if tensions disrupt trade or fuel concerns over global supply chains and growth, market expectations for the pace of Fed rate cuts may accelerate or intensify (risk withdrawal → central bank easing expectations), depressing real interest rates and supporting gold prices; Third, currency and capital flows, if the yen fluctuates due to war premiums and capital outflows, interactions between regional currencies and the dollar will indirectly influence cross-currency demand for gold. The combined effect of these three pathways significantly heightens gold's sensitivity during the current news.

Technical Analysis

Can Gold Surpass 4380 with Triangle Consolidation Pattern Breakthrough?_1

On the 4-hour chart, gold recently broke out of a triangle consolidation pattern and continued its upward momentum. After breaking through the resistance level of 4245 to reach 4264.66, it began to pull back. Currently, gold has tested the 20-day moving average support with two consecutive downward-trending 4-hour candlesticks, both closing with lower shadows. This indicates an inability to break below effectively, signaling a significant strengthening of bullish momentum in the market. Concurrently, multiple moving averages within the system exhibit a bullish alignment pattern, suggesting strong continuity in gold's upward trend and further enhancing the likelihood of continued gains in the near term.

On the upside, the primary resistance level for gold is at 4264.66. If this level is broken, further upward space will open, potentially testing 4300.00 or even the previous historical high of 4381.44.

On the downside, if gold breaks below the key support at 4200.00 with increased volume, it could pull back toward 4140.00.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 4215.00

Target price: 4360.00

Stop loss: 4190.00

Validity until: 2025-12-16 23:00:00

Support: 4200.00, 4173.47

Resistance: 4264.66, 4300.0

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The failure to achieve a new higher high suggests that the underlying bearish trend may still be in control.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.16370

Entry Price

1.15200

1.16750

1.16426 -0.00019 -0.02%

38.0

Pips

Loss

1.15200

1.16761

Exit Price

1.16370

Entry Price

1.16750

Eurozone economic data delivered a mixed picture, with German Retail Sales unexpectedly falling short of estimates in October. However, the German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for November surprised to the upside, nearing the 3% threshold. In France, third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) aligned with both estimates and the preliminary reading, while Spain's HICP similarly exceeded the 3% mark.

A prior review of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting minutes indicated that policymakers judged the economic and inflation outlook to be broadly consistent with the September baseline projection, albeit with high uncertainty remaining. Members agreed that maintaining interest rates unchanged remained appropriate, as recent data had not materially altered the medium-term assessment and the distribution of risks around inflation was generally balanced.

In the U.S, the ISM Manufacturing PMI softened to 48.2 in November from 48.7 in October, marking the ninth consecutive month the U.S. industrial sector has been in contraction territory and falling short of the 48.6 forecast. Breaking down the details, the Employment sub-index plunged deeper into contraction, slipping from 46 to 44, pointing to weakening labor market momentum. Furthermore, the New Orders Index fell to 47.4, signaling a third straight month of contracting demand. The only component showing resilience was the Prices Paid Index, which rose to 58.5, indicating continuous cost pressures for businesses.

Following the latest round of weaker U.S. economic data, traders have aggressively increased their bets on interest rate cuts in December, with the probability now standing at 87%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. In political news, rumors have surfaced suggesting that White House National Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett could be named as the next Fed Chair. U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed he has made his choice but stated: "We will be announcing it."

U.S. inflation indicators showed signs of stabilization in September. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year (YoY), suggesting that wholesale price pressures have leveled off. However, consumer activity appeared to weaken, with Retail Sales rising only 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, a noticeable slowdown from the 0.6% increase in August. Compounding this, the Conference Board reported that household sentiment deteriorated significantly in November, with Consumer Confidence dropping 6.8 points to 88.7 from 95.5 in October. Key Resistance Holds Firm, Signaling Potential Bearish Correction_1

Key Resistance Holds Firm, Signaling Potential Bearish Correction_1

Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has encountered stiff resistance at the 1.1645 level, a point where it has faced strong bearish reactions on previous occasions. If this pattern of rejection repeats, a downward correction is highly probable. The failure to achieve a new higher high suggests that the underlying bearish trend may still be in control. This corrective move could initiate from the 1.1645 resistance, targeting the ascending trendline support, which converges near the 1.1511 support zone.

The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are located at 1.1560 and 1.1585, respectively. A decisive close below these MA levels would accelerate the bearish impulse toward the trendline. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 66; while not yet in the extreme overbought zone, it is high enough to warrant caution. This suggests that one final push to retest the 1.1645 resistance is possible before a full correction begins. However, a strong, decisive break and close above the 1.1645 resistance would invalidate the bearish setup, opening the path for a more sustained upward movement.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1637

Target price: 1.1520

Stop loss: 1.1675

Validity: Dec 12, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Manuel

Forex

Economic

Summary:

This condition suggests that momentum is stretched, and bears will be looking attentively at these levels to try and seize control of the movement.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65390

Entry Price

0.64900

0.65800

0.66383 +0.00292 +0.44%

41.0

Pips

Loss

0.64900

0.65802

Exit Price

0.65390

Entry Price

0.65800

The ISM Manufacturing PMI softened to 48.2 in November from 48.7 in October, marking the ninth consecutive month the U.S. industrial sector has been in contraction territory. This figure also fell short of the 48.6 forecast. Delving into the details, the Employment sub-index slipped further into contraction, decreasing from 46 to 44, pointing to weakening momentum in the labor market. Furthermore, the New Orders Index fell to 47.4, signaling a third straight month of contraction. The only component showing firmer footing was the Prices Paid Index, which rose to 58.5, indicating continuous cost pressures for businesses.

In political news, rumors have surfaced suggesting that White House National Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett could be named as the next Fed Chair, succeeding Jerome Powell. However, U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that he would not disclose his choice publicly but confirmed he had already made his decision, adding: "We will be announcing it."

U.S. inflation indicators showed signs of stabilization in September. The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year (YoY), aligning with forecasts and suggesting that wholesale price pressures have leveled off. The Core PPI offered slight relief, easing to 2.6% from 2.9%, falling below expectations.

However, consumer activity appeared to weaken. Retail Sales rose only 0.2% month-over-month (MoM) in September, a noticeable slowdown from the 0.6% increase in August, pointing toward softer consumption trends. Compounding this, the Conference Board reported that household sentiment deteriorated significantly in November, with Consumer Confidence dropping 6.8 points to 88.7 from 95.5 in October.

Higher-than-expected Australian inflation is moderating expectations for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), a factor that could help limit losses for the AUD. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock emphasized the central bank's unanimous decision to hold the cash rate at 3.60% and confirmed that a rate cut was not discussed at the meeting.

Conversely, data released by RatingDog on Monday showed that China’s Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.9 in November from 50.6 in October. This figure fell below the market consensus of 50.5. As a reading below the 50 benchmark level suggests contraction, the unexpected result is weighing negatively on the Australian Dollar, given Australia’s strong trade ties with China. Head and Shoulders Formation Hints at Bearish Reversal_1

Head and Shoulders Formation Hints at Bearish Reversal_1

Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is currently developing a potential Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern near the resistance level of 0.6563. This level served as the first shoulder on November 2nd. In the recent session, the price rallied to these same levels before reacting sharply downward, forming the second shoulder. The central peak (the "Head") of the pattern is located at the November maximum of 0.6580.

If the price fails to successfully close above the 0.6563 resistance level, it would favor the start of a bearish correction toward the 0.6493 zone, the next key support level. This support is technically fortified as it aligns perfectly with the 0.50% Fibonacci retracement level, acting as a strong price magnet for the pullback.

The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 2-hour chart are clustered at 0.6494 and 0.6506, respectively. This MA cluster is strategically aligned near the Fibonacci retracement zone, further increasing its magnetic pull on the price. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached the 73 level, entering clear overbought territory. This condition suggests that momentum is stretched, and bears will be looking attentively at these levels to try and seize control of the movement.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6540

Target price: 0.6490

Stop loss: 0.6580

Validity: Dec 12, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold extends its powerful 2024 rally, climbing to multi-month highs as safe-haven demand strengthens and markets prepare for a widely expected December Fed rate cut. Technical momentum remains firmly bullish despite stretched indicators.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

4244.42

Entry Price

4380.00

4150.00

4197.91 -9.26 -0.22%

0.0

Pips

Flat

4150.00

Exit Price

4244.42

Entry Price

4380.00

Gold began the new month on a robust footing, continuing a rally that has already positioned 2024 as one of the most extraordinary years in the metal’s modern history. XAU/USD advanced to its strongest level since October 21, lifted by a combination of risk-off sentiment and increasingly confident expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December 9–10 policy meeting. At the time of writing, the metal trades around $4,260, marking a nearly 60% gain for the year and leaving it on track for its most impressive annual performance since 1979.

The surge reflects a convergence of powerful forces. Central banks have remained consistent net buyers, ETF inflows are accelerating, and geopolitical tensions show no signs of easing, reinforcing gold’s haven status. Markets, meanwhile, are firmly leaning into the idea that the Fed is prepared to loosen policy again next week. Softer US economic data and a notably dovish tone from policymakers have pushed rate-cut expectations to an 87% probability of a 25-basis-point reduction. For gold, the implications are straightforward: lower interest rates depress real yields and reduce the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, providing a strong macro backdrop that continues to feed the bid.

The macroeconomic narrative contributing to gold’s climb has only strengthened. US data last week signaled a cooling trend across multiple sectors, from consumer spending to manufacturing and labor markets. While the economy is far from contraction territory, the deceleration offers the Fed a comfortable excuse to proceed with additional easing. Risk sentiment has also deteriorated globally, with equity markets wobbling, bond yields stabilizing at lower levels, and geopolitical risks—from Middle Eastern conflicts to US-China trade frictions—fueling caution among investors. In this environment, gold has reasserted itself as a defensive anchor for portfolios.

Technical Analysis

Technically, gold’s chart structure remains unequivocally bullish. The metal cleared the key resistance level at $4,225, validating the broader upward trend and maintaining its position along a supportive rising minor trendline. Relative strength indicators are pushing into overbought territory, which typically warns of slowing momentum or near-term exhaustion, yet the market has shown little willingness to reverse meaningfully. Buyers remain firmly in control, even if short-term pullbacks may develop as part of a healthy trend continuation.

The primary zone traders are watching on the downside sits between $4,246 and $4,242. This remains the preferred buy-side region should the market retreat, as a pullback into this area followed by a bullish reversal on lower timeframes would preserve structure and offer an attractive re-entry point. The first region of overhead friction appears near $4,262, where intraday supply has historically triggered brief reactions. A clean break above this level would likely sustain bullish continuation toward the upper extension zone.

The next key region sits between $4,286 and $4,290, an area where extension levels converge and liquidity typically pools. This is where many traders anticipate late buyers to be trapped, making it a natural target for profit-taking on longs and a potential area for short-term reactionary pullbacks. While not a reversal zone in a broader sense, it is a region where volatility tends to increase sharply.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 4245

STOP LOSS: 4150

TAKE PROFIT: 4380

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

EURNZD remains within a well-defined 4-hour ascending channel. Bulls are reloading at the lower trend support. Keep stops below channel base; stay long while structure holds.

BUY EURNZD

EXP

TRADING

2.02699

Entry Price

2.08630

2.00530

2.01551 -0.00515 -0.25%

0.0

Pips

Flat

2.00530

Exit Price

2.02699

Entry Price

2.08630

Fundamentals

Data released last week showed that New Zealand’s third-quarter retail sales significantly exceeded expectations, rising 1.9% QoQ versus a consensus forecast of 0.6%. Excluding motor-vehicle sales, core retail sales still outperformed, up 1.2% QoQ against an expected 0.8%.

Statistics New Zealand noted that this was the largest quarterly increase in retail activity since late 2021, with broad-based gains across industries. Most sectors expanded in September.

Separately, the ANZ Business Confidence Index surged to an 11-year high of 67.1 from 58.1, while the survey’s Own Activity Outlook index jumped to 53.1 from 44.6—its strongest reading since 2014—indicating that the recovery is driven by a tangible improvement in real economic momentum rather than merely sentiment. ANZ stated that “signs of recovery are now visible,” with recent growth increasingly underpinned by actual economic activity.

Inflation signals, however, remain mixed. The share of firms planning to raise prices over the next three months rose from 44% to 51%, the highest since March. By contrast, the proportion expecting higher input costs edged down from 76% to 74%, while one-year-ahead inflation expectations stayed anchored at 2.7%. Taken together, these developments point to inflation pressures that are stabilising but still fall short of the disinflationary momentum that would prompt the RBNZ to initiate a fresh easing cycle.

Market outlook: The improvement in underlying fundamentals is reassuring and suggests the economic recovery is likely to persist. With the recovery under way and headline CPI sitting at the upper bound of the target band, we see no justification for further cuts to the Official Cash Rate “barring any unforeseen shocks”.

Uptrend Intact, Await Data-Driven Breakout_1

Technical Analysis

EURNZD maintains a robust upward structure on the 4-hour chart, currently quoted at 2.0283, with bulls still in control. The euro benefits from the ECB’s deferred rate-cut expectations, while the RBNZ’s latest easing has signaled limited room for further loosening, offering the Kiwi a near-term reprieve—though its underlying fundamentals remain fragile. Technically, the trend remains intact; as long as key support holds, price is well-positioned to retest the overhead resistance cluster.

Trade Recommendations

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 2.0254

Target Price: 2.0863

Stop Loss: 2.0053

Valid Until: December 20, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 2.0271/2.0077/2.0004

Resistance Levels: 2.0680/2.0753/2.0850

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

EUR/USD extended its winning streak to a sixth straight session, hitting two-week highs as a softer US Dollar and dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve boosted bullish momentum.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.16399

Entry Price

1.18500

1.15400

1.16426 -0.00019 -0.02%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.15400

Exit Price

1.16399

Entry Price

1.18500

EUR/USD strengthened further on Monday, marking its sixth consecutive day of gains and climbing beyond 1.1630, its highest level in two weeks, as persistent weakness in the US Dollar encouraged renewed bullish interest in the pair. The common currency held firm despite a downward revision to November’s Eurozone PMI readings—an indication that markets are increasingly focusing on the US monetary policy outlook rather than lingering signs of economic softness in Europe.

The Euro’s resilience comes at a moment when the broader narrative is shifting decisively toward expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. Traders have been steadily pricing in a more dovish Fed following weeks of mixed US data and growing political pressure on the central bank. The Dollar remains under sustained pressure as markets brace for confirmation that policymakers are leaning toward policy easing.

Adding to the dovish sentiment, a Reuters report on Monday suggested that President Donald Trump may announce Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chair. Hassett—known for his ultra-dovish stance—has long championed looser monetary policy aligned with Trump’s pro-growth agenda. Should such an appointment materialize, markets would likely interpret it as another signal of prolonged accommodation, weighing further on the greenback.

Later in the session, attention turns to Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who is scheduled to participate in a policy panel at Stanford, California. While Powell is not expected to unveil major policy shifts, traders will listen closely for tone and nuance, especially given rising uncertainty around the Fed’s future leadership. Still, the main macro catalyst of the day remains the ISM Manufacturing PMI release at 15:00 GMT—a report that could either reinforce or challenge the current market conviction around a near-term rate cut.

Technical Analysis

Technically, EUR/USD continues to show firm upward momentum as the pair attempts to breach the top boundary of the descending channel drawn from early October highs, currently around 1.1615. A sustained break above this level would be significant, marking a potential shift in medium-term trend dynamics and exposing a cluster of resistance in the 1.1800–1.1850 region, corresponding to the highs from late October and mid-November.

Momentum indicators are mixed but still support a cautiously bullish stance. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains comfortably in bullish territory near 60, suggesting continued buying interest. However, the MACD indicator is hovering near its signal line, hinting at waning upward momentum and raising the risk of near-term consolidation or a minor pullback.

Price action has also been aided by supportive short-term structure. EUR/USD has broken above its immediate resistance at 1.1605, supported by its position above the 50-period EMA and a minor bullish corrective trend line. Still, traders should be mindful of emerging overbought signals on several oscillators, which could temporarily cap upside attempts if profit-taking emerges.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY EURUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.1640

STOP LOSS: 1.1540

TAKE PROFIT: 1.1850

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Eva Chen

Forex

Summary:

With U.S. payrolls and trade data postponed to December amid the federal shutdown, Canada’s labour print will drive the next CAD repricing.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.39661

Entry Price

1.42890

1.38600

1.38147 -0.01422 -1.02%

106.1

Pips

Loss

1.38600

1.38595

Exit Price

1.39661

Entry Price

1.42890

Fundamentals

Canada’s Q3 GDP rebounded 0.6% QoQ (vs. –0.5% in Q2), beating consensus by a wide margin, as the trade balance improved on softer imports and a modest export lift. The print sent CAD sharply higher on reduced BoC easing bets.

The upside surprise may be partly statistical—an artefact of the deflation method and pre-tariff trade pulls—while the import-driven wedge implies underlying fragility despite the headline strength.

Focus now shifts to Friday’s November LFS release, the last major data point before the 10 Dec BoC decision.

We expect flat employment growth in November after outsized gains of 67,000 in October and 60,000 in September. Slower population growth should curb new labour-market entrants, keeping the unemployment rate steady at 6.9%—the same as in October and below the 7.1% readings of August and September.

The Canadian labour market remains slack: the jobless rate is still roughly 100 bp above our estimate of “neutral”. Yet a 6.9% print would mark the first YoY unchanged reading since May 2023.

The BoC’s October cut explicitly marked the lower bound of its estimated neutral range. Absent a material downside surprise to growth or inflation, further easing is unlikely.

GDP Beat Masks Structural Fragility, Bullish Squeeze Building_1

Technical Analysis

USDCAD’s slide is losing momentum today, yet a daily MACD bearish divergence is in place. A close below the 1.3920 shelf is the first confirmation of a reversal. Slicing through the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3538–1.4139 leg at 1.3909 would seal the end of the up-move from 1.3538 and expose the 61.8% Fibo at 1.3768. While 1.4129 caps, any bounce retains downside skew.

On the flip-side, the April-to-date inverse head-and-shoulders base remains intact. Once the bull-flag consolidation clears, buyers are likely to re-engage.