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Bulls Are Still Looking for a Rebound Amid Strong Short-Term Selling Pressure
Summary:
The performance of the UK economy may continue to surpass that of other countries. The EURGBP is likely to decline further this week; however, due to emerging oversold signals, the potential for a downturn may be limited.
PENDING
0.82650
Entry Price
0.88580
TP
0.81650
SL
0.83774 -0.00084 -0.10%
--
Pips
PENDING
0.81650
SL
Exit Price
0.82650
Entry Price
0.88580
TP
Fundamentals
On Tuesday, data showed that the UK's second-quarter GDP growth was slightly revised down to 0.5%, with the GBP remaining unaffected. The GBP's muted response to the downward adjustment of the UK's second-quarter GDP figures is not surprising, as the UK's economic performance still appears to outperform that of other countries.
Additionally, the eurozone inflation data released on Tuesday reinforced expectations for another rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in October, which could drive the EURGBP below the threshold of 0.8300. Unless significant economic indicators demonstrate a downturn in the UK, the GBPEUR may strengthen further in the coming days.
In terms of medium-term outlook, we maintain the belief that the UK economy will outperform its competitors in 2024, and even the revised 1.1% growth forecast from the OECD seems overly pessimistic to us. Furthermore, the pound may continue to outperform the euro in the coming months, influenced by the Bank of England's (BOE) cautious approach towards interest rate cuts.
However, October could pose challenges for both currencies, particularly due to the budget announcement in the UK scheduled for October 30, which might hinder the pound. The government's potential move to increase taxes in response to poor public finances could raise concerns among prospective investors. The euro may also experience volatility, as market speculation suggests that the ECB may cut rates in October, coupled with France's budgetary difficulties that could put pressure on the euro in the upcoming weeks.
Technical Analysis
The EURGBP has fallen to a two-and-a-half-year low of 0.8312; however, it remains above the bottom of a bearish channel and a broad trading range that has persisted for nearly a year, suggesting potential signals for a short-covering rebound from the bears.
Nevertheless, the bulls must exercise caution, as the Relative Strength Index and stochastic indicators have yet to establish a bottom in the oversold zone. This implies that downward pressure is likely to persist for some time before a potential upward movement occurs.
If the selling pressure drives the price below 0.8300, they may encounter critical support between the 0.8250 level and the 2022 low of 0.8200. A break of the latter would open the door for further declines without any significant barriers.
On the other hand, bulls need to accumulate momentum at the key range bottom to seek strong rebound potential and reverse the current free-fall trend. If not, the angle of decline may continue to exert downward pressure, extending the bearish momentum further.
Overall, while the downside risks are not entirely eradicated, the EURGBP's current trading near crucial support levels indicates a possibility for bullish outlook.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Buy
Entry Price: 0.8265
Target Price: 0.8558
Stop Loss: 0.8165
Deadline: October 16, 2024 23:55:00
Support: 0.8249, 0.8201, 0.8178
Resistance: 0.8338, 0.8464, 0.8523
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