The cryptocurrency market surged over the past 24 hours, with Bitcoin climbing to a seven-week high and kicking off October with strong momentum.

According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin rose nearly 4% on Thursday, reaching $119,513 during early Coinbase trading. This marks the highest level since August 14, when Bitcoin began retreating from record highs. However, a key resistance looms near $120,220. A decisive breakout and sustained hold above this level could pave the way for new highs.

CoinGlass data show October has historically been Bitcoin’s strongest month, with gains in 10 of the past 12 years. Weak US economic indicators and looming SEC deadlines on potential altcoin ETF approvals may also be fueling the rally.

As traditional economic indicators soften, Bitcoin’s surge past $118,000 underscores its growing sensitivity to monetary policy expectations and its appeal as a hedge against economic uncertainty.

CME futures pricing indicates a 99% probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut on October 29, up from 96.2% earlier this week.

Overall, total crypto market capitalization held steady near $3.91 trillion and the 50-day moving average. While markets have bounced off local lows, participants are waiting for the next catalyst—potentially labor market data or resolution of the US government shutdown—to determine direction.

Since breaking out of a daily triangle in early August, Bitcoin has continued to trend higher. With the strong daily uptrend intact, BTCUSD could test resistance near $120,000 before turning lower, especially as trading volume has declined despite strong momentum. Meanwhile, the latest move is also part of a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern on the 4-hour chart, targeting the $120,000 zone. Bulls are advised to scale back positions or take profit.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 120220

Target Price: 102110

Stop Loss: 123350

Valid Until: October 17, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 118069 / 114941 / 109935

Resistance Levels: 120336 / 123337 / 124576

US benchmark crude oil prices struggled to hold a recovery on Thursday, slipping further toward multi-month lows as fears of oversupply and faltering demand overshadowed geopolitical tensions. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading at $61.80 per barrel at the time of writing, after a modest rebound on Wednesday that peaked at $62.30 before losing momentum. Prices are now edging closer to the four-month low of $61.30, signaling a fragile market sentiment.

The downward move highlights the market’s deepening concerns that the US federal government shutdown could erode demand in the world’s largest oil-consuming economy. Combined with speculation that OPEC+ may increase supply in November, the news has counteracted any bullish impetus from prospects of tighter sanctions on Russian oil exports.

The sell-off intensified after a Reuters report earlier this week indicated that OPEC+ members were discussing the possibility of accelerating their planned production increases next month. The group had already agreed to raise output by 137,000 barrels per day in October, but the potential for a more aggressive supply expansion in November sparked fears that the market could tip into a glut just as global economic activity shows signs of fatigue.

The timing of these developments has proved particularly unsettling for traders. The US government shutdown, which has now entered its second day, has clouded the outlook for energy demand in the US. While the duration of the shutdown remains uncertain, many analysts believe it could further dent economic growth at a time when other major economies, including the eurozone and China, are grappling with slowing momentum.

“This confluence of rising supply expectations and softer demand prospects is exerting heavy pressure on prices,” said a senior market analyst at a London-based energy consultancy. “The market appears more concerned about oversupply than about geopolitical risks.”

Geopolitical tensions have provided only limited support for oil prices. A joint statement by G7 finance ministers earlier this week pledged to tighten the screws on countries and entities purchasing Russian oil or helping Moscow circumvent Western sanctions. While such measures could, in theory, restrict Russian exports and tighten global supply, traders have largely shrugged them off for now, focusing instead on the near-term threat of abundant supply.

From a technical perspective, the price action has underscored the bearish tone. WTI broke below the critical $61.50 support level during intraday trading on Thursday, a move that opens the door for a deeper pullback. Analysts caution that a decisive daily close below this threshold would strengthen the downside momentum.

The market’s inability to sustain gains above $62.30 shows how fragile the bullish case has become. WTI’s sustained trading below its 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) adds to the negative pressure. Momentum indicators are flashing bearish signals, and the recent rally into overbought territory has given way to a negative divergence.”

The technical picture suggests that unless buyers step in to defend the $61.50 mark, further losses could unfold in the short term. Traders are also eyeing the $61.30 level — the recent four-month low — as a key line of defense for the bulls. A break below this area could open the path to deeper declines, potentially toward the $59 threshold, a psychologically significant level that could invite renewed volatility.

SELL WTI

ENTRY PRICE: 61.30

STOP LOSS: 62.30

TAKE PROFIT: 59.00

The British pound remained on the defensive against the Japanese yen on Thursday, slipping further as the market digested a more hawkish-than-expected summary of opinions from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). The currency pair, GBP/JPY, has fallen more than 1.2% so far this week and briefly dipped below ¥197.85 — the lower boundary of its two-month trading range — a sign that bearish sentiment is starting to weigh more heavily on sterling.

The yen’s advance was driven by the BoJ’s latest summary of opinions, which signalled that policymakers are increasingly open to raising interest rates in the coming months. Several members of the board suggested that the current accommodative stance may no longer be appropriate if underlying inflation proves persistent. That was enough to encourage traders to rotate back into the yen, reinforcing expectations that Japan’s long era of ultra-loose policy could be drawing to a close.

“The tone of the BoJ’s summary suggests that the central bank is moving steadily — though cautiously — toward normalisation,” said one Tokyo-based FX strategist. “With the market having been heavily positioned against the yen for months, even small hawkish hints can trigger outsized moves.”

Sterling, meanwhile, has lacked its own catalysts. The UK economic calendar is relatively light this week, depriving the pound of potential support from fresh data. Yet investor concerns about Britain’s fiscal outlook remain in focus. The UK’s high debt burden, soft productivity trends and the prospect of tighter budgetary measures in the November fiscal statement continue to weigh on sentiment. For many in the market, these factors make sterling particularly vulnerable at a time when the yen is being buoyed by the prospect of higher domestic rates.

From a technical perspective, the near-term picture for GBP/JPY appears precarious. The pair is currently edging toward a key resistance level at ¥198.20 — identified as an overlap resistance zone just below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of its recent downswing. Analysts see this as a likely sell-on-rally point, with expectations that the pair could resume its decline from this level.

A widely-cited tactical setup in the market suggests short positions around ¥198.20, with a stop loss placed near ¥199.72 — another overlap resistance level — to manage upside risk. On the downside, the first target for bears is ¥195.10, viewed as a notable pullback support zone.

SELL GBPJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 198.00

STOP LOSS: 199.30

TAKE PROFIT: 195.10

Japan’s latest quarterly Tankan survey showed business sentiment among large manufacturers rising to 14 in Q3 from 13, driven by improvements in ceramics and shipbuilding. The large non-manufacturing index held steady at 34, indicating more firms viewed conditions as “favorable” than “unfavorable.” Across all industries, large enterprises revised their business investment plans for this fiscal year upward, from +11.5% to +12.5%, while forecasts for profit contraction narrowed slightly from -4.9% to -4.7%.

As one of the Bank of Japan’s most closely watched indicators, the Tankan results gave traders fresh justification to bet on a rate hike this month. Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the need to assess the impact of US tariffs on corporate activity and earnings, but the report suggests no severe disruptions so far. This was the first Tankan survey since the late-July US-Japan trade deal and President Trump’s supplemental executive order last month.

Deputy Governor Uchida on Tuesday underscored the resilience of the Japanese economy, highlighting that the Tankan survey showed optimism among businesses. With easing US trade uncertainty, manufacturers’ outlooks have improved. He noted that although some firms are facing profit pressures from tariffs, revenues remain solid, capital investment is trending higher, and consumption has held firm.

On inflation, Uchida said underlying price growth may stall in the short term but should gradually accelerate as expectations rise. This indicates that progress—albeit slow—continues toward the BOJ’s price stability target.

Uchida reiterated the bank’s data-driven stance, noting that if economic and price trends evolve as expected, the BOJ will proceed with further hikes, guided by evidence rather than preset commitments.

Market view: The improvement in Q3 Tankan large manufacturer sentiment to 14, the highest since Q4 2024, has boosted economic confidence. The BOJ’s gradual normalization path supports further yen strength. In addition, the narrowing US-Japan bond yield spread is reducing the relative appeal of US Treasuries, adding pressure on USDJPY to move lower.

USDJPY remains biased to the downside intraday, with its decline from 149.95 progressing toward 145.47. A strong rebound from this level would preserve the corrective structure from 150.90, leaving room for the broader uptrend from 139.87 to eventually resume. However, a decisive break below 145.47 would signal a reversal of the prior uptrend and open the way toward support at 142.66.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 147.00

Target Price: 142.66

Stop Loss: 149.20

Valid Until: October 17, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 145.47 / 144.83 / 143.91

Resistance Levels: 147.02 / 147.37 / 148.21

The yen traded with sharp volatility against the dollar and remained near the two-week high touched the previous day. Market acceptance of the Bank of Japan’s policy normalization path has been increasing, in stark contrast to expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut rates twice more before the end of the year. The resulting narrowing of the US-Japan yield spread continues to support the yen. Meanwhile, markets have shown a muted reaction to the US government shutdown, reflecting expectations that its economic impact will be limited. This has kept risk sentiment broadly optimistic, which in turn is seen as weighing on the yen’s safe-haven appeal. On the other hand, dovish Fed expectations have prevented the dollar from capitalizing on an overnight rebound from a one-week low. This limited USDJPY’s intraday upside and supported the likelihood of further downside.

US federal agencies began closing after President Donald Trump’s Republican Party failed to reach agreement with Democrats on a spending bill. Investors, however, remained relatively calm, citing the historically limited economic impact of government shutdowns. By contrast, CME’s FedWatch tool showed traders had fully priced in an October Fed rate cut and were assigning about a 90% probability to another cut in December. Disappointing US private-sector employment data bolstered these expectations. A direct effect of the government shutdown could be the delay of key macroeconomic data releases, including Thursday’s weekly jobless claims and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. This leaves the dollar’s near-term moves dependent on comments from FOMC officials.

On the daily chart, USDJPY has been oscillating between the Bollinger upper and lower bands and is currently consolidating near the mid-band. MACD has formed a bearish crossover near the zero line, upward momentum is fading, and RSI stands at 44, on the verge of entering bearish territory, indicating a clear bearish bias. If the price holds above the middle band, it could rally toward the previous high near 151.00; if it fails, it may fall back toward 145.00. On the weekly chart, the Bollinger bands have narrowed, moving averages have flattened, and MACD lines are hovering near the zero axis, signaling an impending breakout. RSI is at 48, reflecting a neutral stance. Overall, the consolidation is not yet over, and the market needs to confirm whether the price can hold above the middle band. From a trendline perspective, USDJPY is near the lower boundary of its channel, favoring a short-term buy-on-dips strategy.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 147.20

Target Price: 151.00

Stop Loss: 145.00

Support: 145.00 / 142.60 / 141.60

Resistance Levels: 149.60 / 150.00 / 151.00

Eurozone inflation remains elevated and significantly above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, indicating that policymakers are unlikely to shift towards easing in the near term. The preliminary CPI inflation data released by the German Federal Statistical Office, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, further accentuates this risk, reinforcing the "stickiness" of Eurozone prices and leading markets to believe that the ECB will find it difficult to implement aggressive rate cuts in the coming months. The U.S. Congress's failure to pass a timely appropriations bill has resulted in approximately 750,000 federal employees facing a government shutdown, with daily payroll costs reaching up to US$400 million. The macroeconomic interplay causes the EURUSD to be supported by Eurozone inflation expectations but constrained by political turmoil in the U.S., resulting in a decline in its exchange rate.

Due to a congressional deadlock, the U.S. federal government experienced a shutdown on Wednesday after failing to reach a funding agreement. Government agencies warned that this would suspend the release of key economic indicators, including the September employment report. The Trump administration froze US$26 billion in funding aimed at Democratic-leaning states, fulfilling prior threats to leverage the shutdown to oppose Democratic priorities. Market expectations indicate that the Federal Reserve's October meeting will see further monetary easing, with federal funds futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange implying a 99.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, up from 96.2% the previous day. The U.S. Supreme Court announced on Thursday that a hearing will be held in January next year regarding President Trump's attempt to remove Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook, who remains in office. This development may alleviate concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence and potentially limit the short-term depreciation of the U.S. dollar. IG Sydney market analyst Tony Sycamore stated that market concerns about the Fed's independence "have receded to a secondary position in the coming months." ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that the eurozone's inflation outlook does not face significant threats, but policymakers must remain vigilant. Her remarks suggest that the ECB is not in a hurry to further reduce borrowing costs, which in turn supports the EURUSD exchange rate.

The MACD histogram in the 1D timeframe for the EURUSD shows diminishing bullish momentum, with a death cross signal emerging. The MACD line and signal line are forming lower highs, yet the price has reached new highs, indicating a potential bearish divergence. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the SMAs are flattening. The RSI is at 50, entering a neutral zone. If the price fails to hold above the middle Bollinger Band or the EMA50, a decline towards the lower Bollinger Band and the EMA200 is likely, with target levels around 1.162 and 1.134. In the 4H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are tightening, with price oscillating between the upper and lower bands. The RSI is at 48, reflecting a cautious market sentiment, with support near the lower Bollinger Band. Therefore, it is recommended to go short at the highs in the short term.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.173

Target Price: 1.14

Stop Loss: 1.2

Support: 1.145, 1.14, 1.13

Resistance: 1.182, 1.192, 1.2