Bears Confirm Trend Reversal With Key Moving Average Breakdown

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

A decisive move and close below the 100-period MA would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend, potentially accelerating the decline toward the local support level at 0.6445.

SELL AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.65550

Entry Price

0.64450

0.65900

0.66383 +0.00292 +0.44%

18.4

Pips

Profit

0.64450

0.65366

Exit Price

0.65550

Entry Price

0.65900

The White House announced a framework agreement on Saturday under which China will ease restrictions on rare earth exports and suspend investigations into U.S. semiconductor companies. In a reciprocal move, Washington will extend a pause on certain tariffs, including a previously planned 100% levy on Chinese products. This announcement follows the high-level meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the APEC Summit last week, where the leaders agreed to a one-year trade truce set to last until November 2026.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown entered its 33rd day without a breakthrough, threatening to surpass the previous record of thirty-five days if the deadlock continues. Senators are expected to meet again later on Monday, as the ongoing funding stalemate continues to delay the release of key economic data and fuel wider economic concerns.

Amid this uncertainty, Fed Governor Stephen Miran warned on Monday that it is "a mistake to draw conclusions about monetary policy from financial conditions alone." Miran suggested that the central bank could "reach a neutral point in a series of 50 basis-point cuts, but does not need 75 basis-point cuts," emphasizing that "the economy is not dysfunctional." He also noted that "changes in the neutral rate mean that policy has tightened passively despite the Fed's cuts."

Economic data that has managed to be released shows weakness, with the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI for October falling to 48.7, down from 49.1 in September and missing the consensus forecast of 49.5. Following these mixed signals, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% at the December meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, has decreased to 67.8% from a recent high of 94.4% a week ago.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is widely expected to keep its Official Cash Rate (OCR) stable at 3.6%. This expectation is strongly supported by last week’s Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed that inflationary pressures grew at a faster pace than anticipated across both consumer and wholesale levels.

Specifically, the Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that the Producer Price Index (PPI) grew by 1% in the July-to-September period, outpacing the 0.8% estimate and the previous 0.7% reading. Over the same period, consumer inflation accelerated to 1.3%, surpassing the 1.1% estimate and the previous 0.7% reading. The hotter-than-expected inflation reports solidify the RBA's cautious stance and provide fundamental support for the Australian Dollar. Bears Confirm Trend Reversal With Key Moving Average Breakdown_1

Bears Confirm Trend Reversal With Key Moving Average Breakdown_1

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD has initiated a bearish correction after its recent rally failed to sustainably break the resistance level at 0.6627. The price reached a high of 0.6618 on October 28th before reversing. The current corrective move has already closed below the 200-period Moving Average (MA), which is now at 0.6555, and has tested the 100-period MA at 0.6520 on the 4-hour chart.

A decisive move and close below the 100-period MA would confirm a continuation of the bearish trend, potentially accelerating the decline toward the local support level at 0.6445. This support zone is highly significant, as it triggered bullish bounces on two prior occasions, making it the immediate downside objective.

The RSI is currently situated at 42, indicating that there is still plenty of room for the bearish momentum to run before the pair enters oversold territory. Although the price briefly bounced from the level where it gapped open on October 26th, a minor corrective rally could occur before sellers resume control. The 200-period MA at 0.6555 would serve as the ideal zone for re-entering short positions, given its recent history as a resistance point. Conversely, a strong close above the 200-period MA would invalidate the current bearish setup and open the door for a renewed push toward the downtrend line.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.6555

Target price: 0.6445

Stop loss: 0.6590

Validity: Nov 14, 2025 15:00:00

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Manuel

Forex

Central Bank

Summary:

Since hitting this high, the price has begun a corrective move lower, developing a technical structure known as an Ascending Wedge formation.

SELL EURJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

177.609

Entry Price

175.000

179.200

180.873 +0.273 +0.15%

120.2

Pips

Profit

175.000

176.407

Exit Price

177.609

Entry Price

179.200

The latest data from the Eurozone confirmed a limited improvement in manufacturing activity, suggesting a gradual stabilization rather than outright growth. The HCOB Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) settled at 50.0 in October, a marginal increase from 49.8 in September, signaling a stagnation in production. National figures were mixed: the German PMI was 49.6, France's rose to 48.8, Italy's was 49.9, and Spain's stood at 52.1. While most readings remain below the critical 50.0 expansion threshold, the figures collectively suggest the industrial sector is slowly finding a floor.

On the monetary front, François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France and ECB policymaker, stated on Friday that the ECB is "in a good position" following its October rate decision. He stressed the need to maintain full flexibility in light of market risks. His Latvian counterpart, Martins Kazaks, reinforced this cautious stance, adding that risks to inflation and growth are now more balanced, strengthening the argument for keeping current rates unchanged for longer. Adding to the consensus, on Monday, Governor Peter Kazimir of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS) stated there is no need to alter or adjust monetary policy, as the risks to both inflation and the economy remain largely balanced.

ECB President Christine Lagarde strongly emphasized the central bank's positive outlook, asserting that the ECB is "in a good position" and committed to doing whatever is necessary to maintain such a favorable stance.

In Japan, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained interest rates unchanged at 0.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting last week. Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the central bank's need to see clearer evidence of sustained wage growth before considering any further policy adjustments. He also noted that the BoJ wishes to "take a bit more time to see how the impacts of U.S. tariffs would affect the Japanese economy."

Key data releases for Japan are forthcoming this week, including the Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI for October, due on Tuesday, which will shed light on factory activity, followed by the minutes from the latest BoJ policy meeting on Wednesday. Technical Breakdown Signals End of Recent Bullish Momentum_1

Technical Breakdown Signals End of Recent Bullish Momentum_1

Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY has maintained a powerful bullish impulse, rallying from 174.98 up to the recent peak of 178.82 on October 30th. Since hitting this high, the price has begun a corrective move lower, developing a technical structure known as an Ascending Wedge formation. This pattern typically precedes a downward breakdown

A decisive close below the lower boundary of the wedge would likely unleash a deeper correction, targeting the key support level at 174.98. This support is significant as it marks the low established after the price gapped higher on October 3rd, following the recent change in the Japanese government.

The 100- and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 4-hour chart are positioned at 176.74 and 175.71, respectively. The 100-period MA has been tracking the price closely as a dynamic support and is currently running very near the lower boundary of the wedge formation. A clear break below this MA level would likely lead to a further acceleration of the downward move. The 200-period MA sits near the key support level, increasing the probability that any correction would aim for this zone.

The RSI is at 48, pulling back sharply from a peak of 78. Although not currently oversold, the position of the RSI suggests that bearish momentum could continue if the wedge structure holds. The downside setup will be negated if the price breaks decisively above 178.50, which would open the path for a renewed bullish impulse.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 177.60

Target price: 175.00

Stop loss: 179.20

Validity: Nov 14, 2025 15:00:00

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

CAD/CHF is firming as the Bank of Canada’s 25 bp cut to 2.25% shifts the growth/rates mix modestly in Canada’s favor while the Swiss National Bank keeps policy at 0% with inflation inside its 0–2% band...

BUY CADCHF

Close Time

CLOSED

0.57609

Entry Price

0.58800

0.57350

0.58207 +0.00640 +1.11%

25.9

Pips

Loss

0.57350

0.57340

Exit Price

0.57609

Entry Price

0.58800

Overview

The cross is stabilizing after Monday’s choppy session as traders digest a BoC that eased to 2.25% but signaled a measured approach from here, against an SNB that reiterated comfort with inflation inside target and no need to cut further. That policy pairing trims the franc’s relative attraction on rate differentials while leaving CAD sensitive to commodities rather than fresh central-bank surprises.

Oil’s consolidation near $60–61 helps cap downside in CAD beta, and dollar dynamics are no longer a decisive headwind with DXY fluctuating just under the century mark. In this setting, CAD/CHF has room to extend higher on dips so long as crude holds its shelf and the SNB’s steady stance keeps CHF carry subdued.

Market sentiment

Positioning is cautiously pro-CAD versus CHF. The BoC’s cut removed some growth anxiety without stoking fears of an aggressive easing cycle, while the SNB minutes and September assessment emphasized policy on hold at 0%, reducing the chance of CHF outperformance via fresh policy shocks.

Cross-asset volatility remains contained and oil’s drift is orderly rather than disorderly, which encourages discretionary accounts to fade franc strength on rallies. With DXY firm but capped below 100 and USD/CHF perched near recent highs, the cleaner relative trade has been to express CAD resilience against CHF on constructive commodity tape rather than chase broad USD moves.

Technical analysis

CAD/CHF edges higher as BoC’s cut underpins growth while SNB stays at 0%_1

The M15 structure favors buying shallow retracements. Price is spending more time above the Bollinger mid-line than below after rejecting the lower band during Asia hours; repeated holds of the 20-period mean typically precede another upper-band test. On Ichimoku, price is rotating on or just above the Kumo, with the cloud top clustering near the prior micro-base and Tenkan attempting to hold at or slightly above Kijun—hallmarks of an early trend resumption if pullbacks stay shallow. S

tochastic (5/3/3) has been cycling higher from mid-range; a clean %K re-cross above %D from the 40–50 zone on a minor dip often triggers an upper-band extension. Immediate resistance sits near the most recent intraday swing high; acceptance above it would open room toward the next round-number magnet, while failure to hold the cloud would risk a shakeout back to the prior session’s midpoint where buyers have repeatedly shown. These dynamics align with a buy-the-dip bias while oil is steady and CHF carry is muted.

Trade Recommendations

Entry: 0.5755

TP: 0.5880

SL: 0.5735

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Forex

Economic

Summary:

EUR/USD stalls near the mid-1.16s while the U.S. Dollar Index rebounds toward the 100.0 handle following the Fed’s 25 bp cut on 29/10 and cautious guidance, as the ECB’s 30/10 hold at 2% keeps the euro’s rate support neutral...

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.15200

Entry Price

1.15020

1.15760

1.16426 -0.00019 -0.02%

18.0

Pips

Profit

1.15020

Exit Price

1.15200

Entry Price

1.15760

Overview

The macro mix tilts against the euro after a short-lived lift from the Fed cut. The FOMC eased by 25 bps to 3.75–4.00% but paired it with language that withheld any commitment to another move, helping the dollar firm back into the upper-99s as rates markets pared the most dovish tails.

At the same time, the ECB left policy unchanged at 2% and stressed that inflation is “close” to target and the outlook “broadly unchanged,” which neither adds fresh support to the euro nor offsets a firmer DXY tape. With VIX printing around the high-teens and no new European data impulse today, EUR/USD is trading as a function of dollar carry and risk tone, both of which currently skew modestly in favor of USD strength on intraday bounces.

Market sentiment

Positioning has rotated back toward defensive dollar bids after Monday’s DXY close near 99.8, and the path of least resistance in the very near term is for EUR/USD to respect overhead supply unless U.S. yields lurch lower.

The ECB’s “good place” framing removes a catalyst for euro outperformance, while the Fed’s uncertainty language shifts the burden of proof to incoming U.S. data rather than pre-committing to more easing. With equity volatility contained but not complacent, discretionary accounts are fading euro strength into resistance rather than chasing breakouts, leaving the cross vulnerable if DXY pokes above the big 100.0 figure.

Technical analysis

EUR/USD fades as DXY rebounds toward 100 after the Fed cut_1

The intraday structure favors a sell-the-rally stance. Price is rotating below or around the Bollinger mid-line, and recent pops into the 20-period mean have been rejected, preserving a sequence of lower intraday highs toward the upper-1.16s. The Ichimoku profile shows spot pressing the underside of the cloud, with Tenkan ≤ Kijun and the Kumo overhead acting as dynamic resistance; repeated failures at the cloud top argue for renewed tests of the lower band if DXY stays bid. Stochastic (5/3/3) has rolled down from mid-range; a fresh %K < %D cross from the 50 area after a shallow bounce typically precedes another lower-band extension.

Immediate resistance is clustered at the Bollinger mid-line and M15 cloud top; sustained rejection there keeps the focus on a push toward the mid-1.15s if dollar strength persists.

Trade Recommendations

Entry: 1.1520

TP: 1.1502

SL: 1.1576

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Summary:

Gold opens the week cautious around $4,008 as a stronger US Dollar and improving risk sentiment cap gains, though technical and macro factors keep the medium-term outlook bullish.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3999.88

Entry Price

4130.00

3960.00

4197.91 -9.26 -0.22%

398.8

Pips

Loss

3960.00

3957.89

Exit Price

3999.88

Entry Price

4130.00

Gold (XAU/USD) started the week on a tentative note, oscillating within the familiar $3,900–$4,050 trading corridor, as investors digested the latest US monetary policy signals and monitored global risk sentiment. At the time of writing, spot gold was hovering around $4,008, having briefly dipped to $3,962 during early Asian trading, underscoring the metal’s sensitivity to short-term USD fluctuations and risk-on developments in equity markets.

The precious metal’s inability to sustain momentum comes amid a broadly supported US Dollar, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s hawkish undertone following last week’s policy decision. At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, but emphasized that further easing this year remains unlikely. This stance has reinforced the Greenback, with market participants scaling back expectations for a December rate cut, thereby pressuring dollar-denominated commodities such as gold.

Adding to the headwinds, global equities have shown resilience, bolstered by a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions and encouraging economic data from major markets. The resulting improvement in risk appetite has diverted short-term capital flows away from traditional safe-haven assets, limiting bullion’s immediate upside potential. Analysts note that while this has weighed on gold, the medium-term story remains intact, supported by persistent geopolitical uncertainties, institutional demand, and structural economic risks that continue to anchor the metal’s long-term appeal.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, gold’s price action retains a bullish structure as long as it remains above key support levels near $3,950. According to technical analysts, a sustained recovery above this base could pave the way for a move toward the next upside target at $4,130. Traders will be closely monitoring intraday price behavior, as a break below support could expose gold to further downside pressures in the short term, whereas a rebound could reignite buying interest from both speculative and institutional participants.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 4000

STOP LOSS: 3960

TAKE PROFIT: 4130

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The USD/CAD pair inched higher on Monday, rising 0.20% to 1.4040, as the U.S. Dollar strengthened following a more cautious tone from the Federal Reserve, while the Canadian Dollar struggled amid weaker oil prices and lingering trade uncertainties.

BUY USDCAD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.40600

Entry Price

1.42400

1.38750

1.38147 -0.01422 -1.02%

21.6

Pips

Profit

1.38750

1.40816

Exit Price

1.40600

Entry Price

1.42400

The U.S. Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) pair maintained a modest upward bias on Monday, trading around 1.4040, up 0.20% on the day. However, its momentum appeared to stall just below the 1.4050 resistance level as traders weighed the competing forces of Federal Reserve policy signals, weakening oil prices, and prolonged political uncertainty in Washington.

The Loonie’s struggle to regain ground comes as the broader market narrative tilts in favor of the greenback. A cautious yet hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve has helped bolster the U.S. Dollar, which continues to benefit from shifting interest rate expectations. Meanwhile, a steep retreat in oil prices—Canada’s most critical export—has further eroded the Canadian Dollar’s short-term outlook, leaving it vulnerable to further downside pressure.

Fed’s Hawkish Pause Boosts USD Sentiment

Following last week’s Federal Reserve policy meeting, Chair Jerome Powell adopted a more guarded approach to rate cuts, pushing back against market speculation of further monetary easing this year. During his post-meeting press conference, Powell said that another rate cut in 2025 was “far from certain,” stressing that policymakers needed to wait for the resumption of official economic data amid the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.

This shift in rhetoric triggered a recalibration in market expectations. The CME FedWatch Tool now shows the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December falling to 69%, down sharply from over 90% before the meeting. The change underscores growing uncertainty about the Fed’s next move, especially as inflation remains sticky and labor market resilience tempers calls for aggressive easing.

The result has been a stronger U.S. Dollar across the board, supported by cautious risk sentiment. As the U.S. government shutdown drags into its sixth week—the longest in modern history—investors remain wary of the potential drag on growth and consumer confidence. Yet paradoxically, this political deadlock has reinforced safe-haven flows into the greenback, contrasting with the weakness seen in commodity-linked currencies like the Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar.

Oil Weakness Amplifies Pressure on the Loonie

Crude oil, Canada’s lifeblood export, remains under pressure. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures retreated toward $60.50 per barrel after briefly breaching $61 earlier in the session, erasing earlier gains fueled by geopolitical jitters and OPEC+’s production plans. Although the cartel confirmed it would pause planned output increases starting in early 2026, the rally faded as the U.S. Dollar strengthened and demand concerns resurfaced.

The recent slide in oil highlights how global energy markets remain highly sensitive to U.S. policy and demand indicators. With China’s manufacturing sector stagnating and European industrial output showing little sign of recovery, the demand outlook remains subdued. For the Canadian Dollar, this dynamic is particularly damaging. As a net exporter of crude, weaker oil revenues tend to dampen Canada’s trade balance and GDP growth prospects, amplifying downside risks for the CAD.

Commerzbank analysts noted that “a sustainable appreciation of the Canadian Dollar is still some time away,” citing trade frictions with Washington and an uneven domestic economic recovery. With the Canadian economy showing tepid momentum and inflation hovering near target, the Bank of Canada is likely to remain cautious, reducing the policy divergence buffer that could otherwise support the Loonie.

Technical Analysis

From a technical standpoint, USD/CAD continues to exhibit a bullish pattern, forming higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart—a structure consistent with trend continuation. The pair has broken above a short-term bearish corrective trendline and remains supported by the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50).

Momentum indicators suggest that the pair is regaining upside strength after offloading overbought conditions. The emergence of a bullish crossover on oscillators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reinforces the case for renewed buying interest. A key daily demand zone between 1.3948 and 1.3890, which serves as a potential launchpad for another leg higher.

We are watching 1.4050 as the immediate resistance to beat, followed by 1.4240 as the next target. A sustained break above 1.4050 could confirm renewed bullish momentum, while failure to hold above 1.3948 would risk a pullback toward the 1.3875 stop-loss level.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDCAD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.4060

STOP LOSS: 1.3875

TAKE PROFIT: 1.4240

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Warren Takunda

Technical Analysis

Summary:

The euro continued its decline against the U.S. dollar on Monday, marking a fourth straight day of losses as markets react to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and fading Eurozone momentum.

SELL EURUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.15100

Entry Price

1.13730

1.15800

1.16426 -0.00019 -0.02%

16.4

Pips

Profit

1.13730

1.14936

Exit Price

1.15100

Entry Price

1.15800

The euro extended its downtrend against the U.S. dollar for the fourth consecutive session on Monday, slipping to 1.1515 at the time of writing — just above fresh multi-month lows near the 1.1500 level. Despite data showing that Eurozone manufacturing activity improved marginally in October, the single currency failed to find any meaningful support, as the U.S. dollar remains buoyed by strong demand following the Federal Reserve’s recent policy tone.

The Fed’s Chair, Jerome Powell, struck a notably cautious tone last week, tempering market expectations for additional rate cuts in December. His remarks, emphasizing data dependency and concern about inflation’s “sticky” nature, signaled that the central bank remains reluctant to ease prematurely. That message has strengthened the greenback and weighed heavily on risk sentiment, extending into the start of the new trading week.

In Europe, fresh data from HCOB confirmed that the Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved modestly to 50.0 in October, up from 49.8 in September — its first time reaching the neutral growth threshold in months. The print suggests that the region’s industrial slowdown might be stabilizing, but analysts remain unconvinced that a sustained recovery is underway.

The marginal uptick was largely attributed to easing supply bottlenecks and tentative improvements in demand. However, underlying challenges persist, particularly in Germany and France, where new orders continue to contract amid weak global trade and subdued domestic consumption. The slight rebound was therefore insufficient to shift the broader narrative of stagnation in the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector.

Adding to the cautious tone, Joachim Nagel, President of the Deutsche Bundesbank and member of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Governing Council, remarked on Monday that recent data remains broadly in line with the ECB’s forecasts. He reaffirmed that “all options remain open” ahead of the next monetary policy meeting — a statement markets interpreted as a sign the ECB is likely to maintain its current stance, leaving rates unchanged while monitoring inflation progress.

Across the Atlantic, the U.S. dollar has remained the primary beneficiary of the Fed’s more hawkish rhetoric. Following Powell’s comments, traders trimmed bets for a December rate cut, leading to a rebound in U.S. Treasury yields and reinforcing the dollar’s position as the top-performing major currency this week.

Attention now turns to upcoming U.S. manufacturing indicators, including the Final S&P Global PMI and the ISM Manufacturing PMI, both due later today. These figures will be critical in shaping market expectations for the Fed’s next moves. Strong readings could reinforce the case for higher-for-longer rates, potentially adding more downside pressure on the euro.

In addition, Fed officials Mary Daly and Lisa Cook are scheduled to speak later in the session, and investors will closely scrutinize their remarks for any shift in tone regarding inflation risks or policy flexibility. A reiteration of the Fed’s data-dependent approach could further cement the dollar’s dominance in the near term.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD remains deeply entrenched in a bearish trend. The pair continues to trade below the pivot resistance zone between 1.1558 and 1.1535, confirming persistent downside momentum. While the pair has briefly eased from oversold conditions on the relative strength index (RSI), the recovery attempts have been short-lived.

The next significant support lies at 1.1450, which represents a psychological threshold and a potential area for short-term profit-taking. A decisive break below this level could expose the pair to further declines toward 1.1373, extending the downtrend into the early part of November. Conversely, any sustained move above 1.1558 would be needed to signal a potential reversal or at least a period of consolidation.