AUD/USD tests key support at 0.6420—bullish reversal possible if 0.6415 holds

Economic

Forex

Summary:

As of August 21, 2025, AUD/USD is trading around 0.6420, approaching a critical support level at 0.6415. A rebound from this level could signal a bullish reversal, while a break below may lead to further declines...

BUY AUDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.64201

Entry Price

0.64500

0.64000

0.66383 +0.00292 +0.44%

29.9

Pips

Profit

0.64000

0.64513

Exit Price

0.64201

Entry Price

0.64500

Overview

AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.6420, near its lowest point in two months. The pair has experienced a 1.75% decline over the past five trading days, influenced by a stronger US dollar and risk-off sentiment in the market. Despite this, Australian business activity has shown improvement, providing some support to the Aussie dollar ahead of upcoming US economic data releases.

Market Sentiment

The market sentiment remains cautious, with traders awaiting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The outcome of this speech could significantly impact the US dollar's strength and, consequently, the AUD/USD pair.

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD tests key support at 0.6420—bullish reversal possible if 0.6415 holds_1

On the 15-minute chart, AUD/USD is testing the 0.6420 support level. A break below 0.6415 could lead to further declines, while a rebound from this level may indicate a bullish reversal. Key resistance levels to watch are at 0.6450 and 0.6470.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 0.6420

TP: 0.6450

SL: 0.6400

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

As of August 21, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $113,000, facing downward pressure due to ETF outflows and risk-off sentiment. The $112,000 level serves as a critical support zone; a rebound here could pave the way for a move toward $118,000...

BUY BTC-USDT

Close Time

CLOSED

113023.0

Entry Price

114000.0

112000.0

88184.5 -1571.9 -1.75%

1023.0

Pips

Loss

112000.0

Exit Price

113023.0

Entry Price

114000.0

Overview

Bitcoin is currently trading at $113,051.50, experiencing a slight decline of 0.84% from the previous day. The intraday range has been between $112,460 and $114,723. This pullback follows a recent all-time high of $124,290.93 on August 14, 2025.

The market capitalization stands at approximately $2.26 trillion, with a circulating supply of 19,909,459 BTC. Despite the recent dip, Bitcoin remains above the psychological $100,000 level, supported by strong institutional interest and macroeconomic factors.

Market Sentiment

The current market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Institutional demand has shown signs of slowing, with spot Bitcoin ETFs experiencing outflows exceeding $700 million this week. This shift has contributed to the recent price pullback. However, long-term bullish factors persist, including the establishment of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and increasing adoption among institutional investors.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin tests $113K support amid ETF outflows—bullish reversal possible if $112K holds_1

On the chart, Bitcoin is testing the $113,000 support level. A break below $112,000 could lead to a further decline toward $110,000.

Conversely, a rebound from current levels could target the $118,000 resistance zone. The Ichimoku Cloud indicator suggests a bearish outlook unless the price reclaims and sustains above $115,000.

Trade Recommendation

Entry: 113000

TP: 114000

SL: 112000

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The U.S. dollar is extending gains against the yen ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with traders avoiding shorts amid inflation concerns. U.S. PMI and jobless claims data are in focus, while Japan’s CPI could pressure the yen further.

BUY USDJPY

Close Time

CLOSED

148.301

Entry Price

151.500

147.100

155.345 +0.237 +0.15%

37.9

Pips

Profit

147.100

148.680

Exit Price

148.301

Entry Price

151.500

The U.S. dollar extended its advance against the Japanese yen on Friday, supported by investor caution ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote address at the Jackson Hole Symposium. The USD/JPY pair, which earlier in the week dipped briefly below 146.90, has rebounded toward 147.75, with traders increasingly reluctant to position aggressively against the greenback before hearing Powell’s stance on monetary policy.

The move reflects both tactical caution and lingering concerns that the Fed remains far from declaring victory over inflation. While labor market data has shown signs of softening, investors are bracing for Powell to emphasize persistent inflationary risks, particularly given the potential price effects of tariffs and supply constraints. The U.S. central bank has repeatedly stressed its data-dependent approach, but markets have been quick to react when Powell leans even slightly more hawkish than anticipated.

Thursday’s U.S. session keeps traders focused on a batch of preliminary S&P Global PMI figures and weekly jobless claims. Both indicators serve as timely gauges of economic activity and labor market resilience. A stronger-than-expected outcome could further underpin the dollar by reinforcing the case that the U.S. economy remains resilient despite high rates. In the current environment, the greenback tends to react more positively to upbeat surprises, while weak data has had a relatively muted effect, as investors still expect U.S. growth to outperform its peers.

Japan, meanwhile, will release July consumer price index data that could add another layer of volatility to yen trading. Market consensus expects a slight moderation in inflation, but any downside surprise could weigh heavily on the Japanese currency. A softer CPI print would likely fuel doubts about the Bank of Japan’s willingness to move meaningfully away from its ultra-loose monetary stance, particularly after recent mixed signals from policymakers. For yen bulls, any sign that the BoJ is once again slipping into caution would be unwelcome, leaving the currency vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.

Technical Analysis

From a chart perspective, USD/JPY has broken higher from a recent consolidation range, with momentum favoring the bulls. The pair now trades comfortably above the 147.20–147.50 zone, an area that has acted as a robust support level in recent sessions. Buyers have stepped in repeatedly at this level, reinforcing its importance as a short-term floor.

The latest higher low formation and the sustained push above moving averages signal that the structure is tilting more decisively toward a bullish bias. Technical traders are closely watching the 148.50 level, where a confirmed breakout could pave the way toward the next significant resistance cluster between 151.00 and 151.50. That region has historically attracted heavy selling interest, making it a critical battleground should the rally extend.

Until then, the immediate trend remains constructive, with dips into the 147.20–147.50 support area likely to attract fresh buying interest. A decisive break below that zone would challenge the bullish setup and potentially shift momentum back toward a more neutral or even bearish tone.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY USDJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 148.30

STOP LOSS: 147.10

TAKE PROFIT: 151.50

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The British Pound fell for a fourth straight session against the US Dollar on Thursday, slipping below 1.3450 as strong U.S. PMI data buoyed the Greenback.

SELL GBPUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

1.34250

Entry Price

1.33000

1.34800

1.33312 +0.00041 +0.03%

6.0

Pips

Profit

1.33000

1.34190

Exit Price

1.34250

Entry Price

1.34800

The British Pound extended its decline against the U.S. Dollar on Thursday, marking its fourth consecutive daily loss, as robust U.S. economic data propelled the Greenback higher while sterling struggled with mixed domestic signals. The GBP/USD pair slipped below the psychologically important 1.3450 threshold, briefly touching 1.3435 during New York trade, as traders positioned cautiously ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks at the closely watched Jackson Hole Symposium.

The Dollar’s strength was underpinned by a raft of upbeat U.S. data that reaffirmed the resilience of the world’s largest economy despite a slowing labor market. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major peers, surged to a fresh weekly high near 98.50, extending its upward momentum.

Fresh preliminary PMI readings from S&P Global for August highlighted broad-based expansion. The Composite PMI rose to 55.4 from July’s 55.1, comfortably in growth territory. Notably, the Manufacturing PMI rebounded sharply to 53.3 from 49.8, not only beating forecasts of 49.5 but also returning to expansion after a contractionary July. The Services PMI printed at 55.4, only marginally softer than July’s 55.7 yet still well above expectations of 54.2, pointing to continued strength in the dominant services sector.

The upbeat PMI figures stood in contrast to labor market data, which showed signs of softening. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 235,000, the highest in two months, exceeding both the prior week’s 224,000 and consensus expectations of 225,000. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed’s manufacturing index tumbled into negative territory, sliding to -0.3 from July’s 15.9, missing expectations of 7. The divergence underscored the complexity of the U.S. outlook: while the broader economy maintains solid momentum, pockets of weakness suggest the Fed may tread carefully on tightening policy further.

Across the Atlantic, UK data painted a similarly uneven picture. Preliminary S&P Global PMIs for August showed the Composite index climbing to 53.0, the strongest reading since April and up from 51.5 in July. Services activity surprised to the upside, holding steady at 53.6 against expectations for a slowdown to 51.8. However, the UK’s manufacturing downturn deepened, with the Manufacturing PMI slipping to 47.3, down from 48.0 and well below the expansionary threshold of 50. The figures reinforced the narrative of a services-led UK economy, but the ongoing contraction in manufacturing continues to weigh on sterling sentiment.

Market participants remain firmly focused on Powell’s upcoming speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Investors will scrutinize his remarks for clues on the Fed’s policy trajectory heading into the final quarter of the year. The stronger-than-expected U.S. PMIs have already reignited speculation that policymakers may maintain a more hawkish stance, keeping the dollar well supported. By contrast, the Bank of England faces a trickier balancing act, with a stagnant manufacturing sector and sticky inflation constraining its room for maneuver.

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD continues to trade with a bearish short-term bias. The pair’s slide below the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) has amplified downward pressure, reinforcing the case for further weakness. Momentum indicators echo this view: the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which had earlier corrected from oversold territory, has resumed its decline, suggesting the bears remain in control.

Should the pair extend losses, immediate support is seen at 1.3400, followed by the more significant 1.3350 level. A decisive break below these thresholds could open the way toward 1.3300 in the near term. On the upside, resistance lies at 1.3500, with stronger barriers near 1.3550, where a recovery would be required to neutralize the current bearish outlook.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3425

STOP LOSS: 1.3480

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3300

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Our base-case Ethereum price projection targets a retest of US$4,800 and a potential record high, though a near-term pullback remains likely before the next leg higher.

BUY ETH-USDT

EXP

EXPIRED

3800.00

Entry Price

4950.00

3400.00

2945.59 -96.13 -3.16%

Pips

EXPIRED

3400.00

4280.93

Exit Price

3800.00

Entry Price

4950.00

Fundamentals

Ethereum printed a four-year peak last week. While a modest retracement has followed, bulls retain control. Net inflows into spot ETH ETFs, improving technicals and a rotational shift across crypto markets all point to additional upside. A sustained advance could lift spot prices to US$4,800.

Currently, ETHUSD spot reference is around US$4,261. Bulls have defended the US$4,000-4,450 demand zone and secured the highest weekly close since 2021 near US$4,475.

As of 14 August, spot-based ETH ETFs have posted eight consecutive daily inflows, attracting nearly US$3.7 billion over the streak—including roughly US$640 million on the final day. Although a modest outflow was recorded on 15 August, the underlying momentum remains constructive.

A cyclical rotation within the asset complex is proving constructive for the broader crypto rally. Ethereum's relative strength has been the primary catalyst behind the recent alt-coin bid, while Bitcoin Dominance has retraced to around 59%.

Three catalysts underpin a move to US$4,800:

1.ETF demand remains a tailwind. Eight straight days of robust inflows have turned cumulative net additions into the multi-billion-dollar range since spring, underscoring persistent institutional appetite.

2.Technical set-up is constructive. A weekly close above US$4,450 keeps the next resistance cluster of US$4,700-4,800 (just shy of the all-time high at around US$4,878) in focus. Price has reclaimed the US$4,450-4,550 supply zone and closed the week at a four-year high. Initial support is expected between US$4,000 and US$4,150.

3.Breadth and relative strength are improving. As BTC dominance ebbs, capital is rotating into large-cap tokens; ETH's leadership is evident as the ETH/BTC ratio and ETF flows jointly reach 2025 highs. Historically, this combination has preceded ETH outperformance.

Demand Surge Meets Technical Breakout, Bulls Face Make-or-Break Inflection_1

Technical Analysis

Despite the recent pullback, the bullish structure remains intact. Provided the US$3,853-3,750 demand shelf holds and ETF inflows resume after any near-term aberration, the path of least resistance is a break toward US$4,700-4,800. A daily close back below US$4,150 would invalidate the thesis and open the door to a deeper retracement.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3800

Target Price: 4950

Stop Loss: 3400

Valid Until: September 5, 2025, 23:55:00

Support: 4064/3938/3745

Resistance: 4425/4585/4791

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The New Zealand Dollar tumbled to a four-month low after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely anticipated rate cut but signaled deeper divisions within its board, raising the prospect of more aggressive easing ahead.

SELL NZDUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

0.58200

Entry Price

0.57000

0.59200

0.57754 +0.00138 +0.24%

9.7

Pips

Profit

0.57000

0.58103

Exit Price

0.58200

Entry Price

0.59200

The New Zealand Dollar emerged as the weakest among the G8 currencies, extending a sharp selloff after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) delivered what markets are describing as a “dovish cut.” The central bank lowered its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 3.00%, in line with expectations, but the details of the decision rattled investors.

Two members of the Monetary Policy Committee voted in favor of a more aggressive half-point cut, underscoring the growing divide within the board. That hint of deeper easing ahead triggered a broad-based slide in the Kiwi, with NZD/USD tumbling more than 1% to hit a four-month low at 0.5815.

The move reflects a shift in market perception: what had been considered a routine trim to the OCR now appears to be the beginning of a potentially larger easing cycle. For traders, the messaging was unambiguously dovish, with the RBNZ flagging that risks to growth remain skewed to the downside.

Governor Hawkesby acknowledged that economic growth had essentially stalled in recent months. Softer household spending, coupled with a cooling labor market, painted a picture of a domestic economy struggling under the weight of high prices and global uncertainty. The RBNZ statement noted that “inflation remains elevated but forward-looking pressures are easing,” a line that markets interpreted as a green light for further policy accommodation.

Interestingly, Hawkesby emphasized that fiscal consolidation—specifically, declining government spending—would play a role in curbing inflationary pressures. This framing gives the bank space to ease further without appearing reckless. However, the RBNZ is walking a tightrope: cutting too deeply risks undermining financial stability, while holding steady could allow growth to falter further.

In my view, the balance of risks now tilts firmly toward additional cuts, with a 50 basis point reduction in the next two meetings no longer off the table. Markets will likely begin to price in such a scenario quickly, especially if upcoming data confirm the picture of a stalling economy.

On the other side of the trade, the US Dollar has found renewed support. Investors remain wary amid sour global sentiment, with all eyes fixed on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. The release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes later this week could provide clarity on the growing divergence among policymakers, but the real market-moving moment will likely come on Friday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Powell’s remarks will be pivotal. The Fed is grappling with a difficult backdrop: a surprisingly weak Nonfarm Payrolls print earlier this month raised questions about the strength of the US labor market, while the looming risk of tariffs and trade uncertainty adds another layer of complexity. Traders want to know whether Powell is now open to rate cuts—a shift that could cap the Dollar’s recent gains—or whether he remains focused on inflation, keeping policy tighter for longer.

Technical Analaysis

From a technical standpoint, NZD/USD remains entrenched in a bearish trend. The pair’s decline in recent sessions reflects sustained downward momentum, with price action holding below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50), a level that continues to act as resistance.

There is, however, a short-term signal worth noting: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently dipped into oversold territory and has since shown a mild rebound. This suggests the possibility of a temporary corrective bounce as the market digests the latest drop. Still, any recovery is likely to be capped by resistance near 0.5900, with the broader downtrend intact.

The next major support sits around 0.5780, and a break below that level could accelerate losses toward the 0.5700 handle. On the upside, bulls would need to reclaim 0.6000 to meaningfully challenge the current bearish bias—a scenario that looks increasingly unlikely without a significant shift in macro drivers.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL NZDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.5820

STOP LOSS: 0.5920

TAKE PROFIT: 0.5700

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Eva Chen

Commodity

Central Bank

Summary:

The minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee(FOMC)'s July meeting provide the rhetorical scaffolding for next week's Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Gold appears to be carving out a cyclical floor. A confirmed base would open a fresh leg toward the US$3,450 resistance cluster.

BUY XAUUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

3341.67

Entry Price

3450.00

3272.00

4197.91 -9.26 -0.22%

416.5

Pips

Profit

3272.00

3383.32

Exit Price

3341.67

Entry Price

3450.00

Fundamentals

Spot bullion gave back most of Wednesday's sharp rebound on Thursday, last trading at US$3,325.

Minutes of the FOMC's 29–30 July meeting, released Wednesday, revealed that although Governor Christopher Waller and Governor Michelle Bowman dissented, they remained isolated. "Almost all participants" judged that keeping the federal-funds target range at 4.25 %–4.50% was appropriate, underscoring a broad consensus to hold policy steady amid elevated uncertainty.

Views within the Committee diverged on emphasis. A majority continued to regard upside risks to inflation as the "greater of the two," particularly given tariff-related shocks and the possibility of de-anchored expectations. Several members, however, cautioned against underestimating labour-market frailty, highlighting the Fed's increasingly strained dual mandate.

The minutes flagged "considerable uncertainty" over both the timing and magnitude of tariff pass-through. Should inflation remain sticky while the labour market softens, policymakers would confront an acute policy trade-off. Consequently, rate decisions will hinge on "the distance of each variable from the Committee's objectives and the potentially different timelines over which those gaps are expected to close."

With the minutes now in the rear-view mirror, attention pivots to Jackson Hole, whose 2025 theme is "The Labour Market in Transition: Demographics, Productivity, and Macroeconomic Policy."

The minutes effectively give Powell maximum optionality for his Friday address, allowing the Chair to reiterate that the policy path is data-contingent.

One more non-farm payrolls report and a CPI print are due before the 17 September FOMC meeting. A material upside surprise in either release would cement the case for an on-hold decision. Conversely, should August job growth drop below 50,000 and the unemployment rate tick higher, a 50 bp dovish cut could be on the table.

FOMC Minutes Set the Tone for Jackson Hole Symposium_1

Technical Analysis

Thursday's rebound in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.20 % sapped gold's upside momentum.

The 4-hour chart shows XAUUSD consolidating between US$3,311 and US$3,352, with no sign yet of a directional breakout. Wednesday's vertical lift and Thursday's round-trip reversal were both executed in institutional size, underscoring that the buy-side is also awaiting a clearer cue from Jackson Hole.

Structurally, the market has now fully amortised the trading cost incurred since the July NFP release (spot fell from US$3,409 to the US$3,311–US$3,315 zone). Whether US$3,301 marks the terminal cost base is still open. If it does, the current down-move can be deemed complete.

A further sign of basing would be the stabilisation of the downward-sloping trendline's gradient. We assess that the market is extremely close to a cycle low. Confirmation would allow bulls to re-engage, targeting the upper bound of the range at US$3,450.