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      AUDUSD: Bearish Strengths Have Full Control of the Situation, but Slowdown in Downward Momentum Could Lead to Corrective Rally

      Forex MarketInflation and RecessionCentral Bank Policy TrendsEconomic Trends
      Summary:

      Although the Australian Bureau of Statistics published optimistic monthly retail sales data, the AUD failed to find more buying. The monthly economic data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is 1.9%, which is higher than the market expectation of 1.5%. In December, retail sales contracted by 3.9%.

      Buy AUDUSD
      End Time
      CLOSED

      0.67266

      ENTRY PRICE

      0.70000

      TGT PRICE

      0.65800

      SL PRICE

      0.66810 +0.00328 +0.49%

      317

      Points

      Profit

      0.65800

      SL PRICE

      0.67583

      CLOSING

      0.67266

      ENTRY PRICE

      0.70000

      TGT PRICE

      Fundamentals

      Data released on Tuesday showed that retail sales in Australia in January increased by 1.9% MoM, exceeding market expectations of 1.5%, partially offsetting the upward revised decline of 4% in December. On an annual basis, sales increased by 7.5%, partly due to price increases.
      Although the January figures were affected by seasonal factors, the recovery in sales growth indicates that domestic demand has maintained a certain upward momentum, thus increasing the likelihood of further interest rate hikes this year.
      For the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), the rise in consumer spending suggests the economy can continue to withstand higher interest rates. The RBA has raised interest rates by 325 basis points since May last year and flexible consumption has been a key factor in policymakers' confidence that the economy can withstand higher borrowing costs.
      More broadly, sales have been flat for the past five months, which is another sign that accelerating inflation and rising interest rates are squeezing consumers. We expect further weakness by the end of 2023 as the full impact of the rate hike is passed on to household budgets.
      The money market suggests that the peak rate this year is 4.3%, up from the current 3.35%, while the market expects the RBA's final rate to be 3.85%.
      Interest rate hikes could further slow spending, with the RBA expecting consumption to grow by 1.7% by the end of 2023, compared to an expected 5.5% increase in 2022. The AUDUSD has failed to react in any meaningful way to the upbeat economic data, suggesting that the downtrend recorded since the beginning of the month is still far from over. However, bears may wait for a sustained decline below the threshold of 0.6700.
      Wednesday could be a busy day for the AUD as it releases inflation and a fourth-quarter GDP report. Inflation is expected to slow to 7.9% in January, following an 8.4% rise in December. After a strong growth of 5.9% in the third quarter, GDP is expected to slow to 2.7% in the fourth quarter. A drop in inflation and GDP would indicate that the high interest rates are having the desired effect and slowing economic activity. The question is whether the RBA can steer the slowing economy to a soft landing and avoid a recession.
      AUDUSD: Bearish Strengths Have Full Control of the Situation, but Slowdown in Downward Momentum Could Lead to Corrective Rally_1

      Technical Analysis

      Since mid-October last year, the AUDUSD has staged an impressive rebound, with bulls always finding bargains (buying at the lows) in the upward-sloping channels. Nevertheless, the AUDUSD experienced a deep pullback in the short term and is currently fluctuating wide near the middle of the early trading range, with a slight slowdown in the decline.
      Looking at the broader cycle, the current momentum indicators suggest that bearish strengths have taken full control of the situation. Specifically, the MACD is softening below its 0-axis, while the RSI is pointing up but still well below its neutral threshold of 50.
      If selling pressure intensifies further, the AUDUSD may reach 0.6589 at the bottom of the range fluctuation, below which the bears could aim for a wider range of fluctuation.
      On the other hand, the bullish move may rebound higher after gaining support at the threshold of 0.6700. After moving away from this low, the AUDUSD could rise to 0.7000 or higher to challenge the recent trend anchor of 0.7157. But before this, the bulls still have to face the suppression of multiple barriers.
      Overall, the further downward trend of AUDUSD seems to show signs of slowing down under the condition of a deep pullback in the medium-term bullish pattern. If it can stand above 00.678 in the short term, there is room for a rebound. It is recommended to buy in at the lows.

      Trading Recommendations

      Trading direction: Long
      Entry price: 0.6730
      Target price: 0.7000
      Stop loss: 0.6580
      Deadline: 2022-03-14 23:55:00
      Support: 0.6698, 0.6685 and 0.6631
      Resistance: 0.6783, 0.6820, 0.6900
      Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
      You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or signal, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

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      Eva Chen

      Analyst

      Master of Economics, 8 years in the financial industry, CFA holder, joined HSBC (Hong Kong) Bank in 2013 after graduating from the University of California, USA in the Investment Research and Markets Department. With years of financial market experience and trading experience, having provided excellent investment advice to many brokerages, entity derivatives importers and clients in Greater China.

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      Articles

      539

      Win Rate

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      Focus on

      WTI, XAUUSD, USDCAD

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